What is going to be the difference at TO-13? If TO-14 is only flowing water with traces of oil then you can more or less guarantee that is the state of the whole field. After all, TO-14 was the 'stand out' well from the whole field flowing so we were led to believe as nearly 10 times more than the other 6 producing wells. This is just not going to happen.
I see that the market has seen through this ludicrous, dodgy premium placing already as the share price is down by 10.96%.
There is a time and a place for premium placings and it is not when they announced a failed flow test.
Funnily enough, I haven't lost money on this as I was in right at the beginning of the Angola operations. I have just checked and my first buy was on 25th August 2023 at 0.247p.
I might appear to be a bit p*ssed off because I was just expecting a good result and the share price to go to 2p or 3p or even 10p for a massive multi-bagger and a huge pay-day but that just hasn't happened (so far at least. Bring on KON-16!)
Yeah, another 6 months down the line and they will probably still "remain buoyant regarding the ongoing potential of our Angolan interests in the Kwanza Basin" even still with nothing to show for it except daft premium-priced placings.
Dodgy placing at a premium largely by dodgy EXT (which is half-owned by Karam). Over half of the sum is coming from the directors.
A clear case of attempting to cover up the bad news with a light covering of jam.
So the original field flowed at a maximum of 17,250 bopd, of which TO-14 - which now appears to be officially empty of flowing oil - constituted up to 12,500, which leaves the other 6 wells flowing at less than 1000bopd each. I won't be expecting much from CRCL's 18% working interest, if it flows oil at all.
Operations have been ongoing now in Angola since the beginning of September 2023. That's over 7 months and this was always going to be a massive operation with no expenses spared by the state-owned oil corporation. I tell you now, CRCL will be facing a massive bill for all of this drilling and testing and one thing is certain and that is that the longer this has dragged on, the bigger the costs and the bigger the bill net to Corcel.
Here's my comment: production was halted in the 1990s when the oil ran out as the well filled with water. Nothing much has changed since then - though there was one theory floating around that the field was going to mysteriously refill itself with oil right to the brim and then reflow in tens of thousands of bopd - but it looks like that was just a theory.
KON-11 well T0-14 appears to be dead -and that was always the hottest of the original 7/9 wells so that in itself is not a very promising sign.
Plus the cost of all of this drilling and testing has to come into the equation at some stage. According to the latest presentation, each well is costing $2M net to CRCL, so there is already an outstanding bill of probably around £6M that will have to be paid at some stage. How are the finances?
Besides who takes 2 months to flow test a well? The answer is no one. Sonangol haven't got a clue. Testing takes a week or two.
I'm just thinking that MAYBE one or more Institutional Investors from the USA got involved in this at an early stage when the subscription price was very cheap and the number of shares quite high and now that the company has been listed on the London market they might have decided this is not what they wanted and are quickly selling out, albeit at a very good profit nonetheless.
If so, as soon as they are gone then the rise can begin.
Maybe next week. 20p/30p is very doable and far more pre-spud.
Ignoring the current status of other Helium explorers, particularly HE1 and Noble Helium, which are both a bit stuck in the Tanzanian wilderness where they have got bogged down with rig problems and endless placings as the costs have escalated out of all proportion dragging down their valuations with it, this is a breath of fresh air in a respects.
Fully funded, drill-ready and drilling an appraisal well rather than an exploration/discovery well.
I think it is just a matter of time before this takes off.
I am perplexed. I thought that this would be moving up fast. A 'cheap' IPO pricing, small m/cap, prospect drill ready, super-experienced management team, great jurisdiction, product in fashion and highly lucrative, etc, etc, etc. All this going for it and the share price has just got stuck.
Even HE1 rose sharply on their IPO in December 2020, despite no one knowing much about Helium at the time, from an IPO placing price of 2.84p to over 8p within the first week of dealing. That took the m/cap of HE1 up from the IPO £14.2M to over £40M, where it stayed for a couple of months before rising further to 20p pre-spud for a m/cap of over £100M. The m/cap here is still a paltry £12.8M.
Come on market!! Buck up!!
"The Konkola West Project is targeting deep down-dip and along-strike extensions of the contiguous Lubambe-Mingomba-Konkola copper deposits to the east of the Licence and which extend north into the Musoshi mining complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Together these deposits comprise a 15 kilometres long continuous zone of mineralisation that contained a pre-mining endowment of over 775 million tonnes grading 2-3% copper. Konkola West is located approximately 2,000 metres southwest of the Mingomba deposit, which lies between the Konkola and Lubambe mines, and currently has a resource of 250 million tons at 3.8% copper."
0.10p paid - make that 0.1032p. I think that around 0.16p/0.17p would be a good target pre-spud, which is where the share price was on the day the earn-in was announced. It could go higher though.
Then, of course, if the high-grade copper is there in abundance, where it should be, then the sky really is the limit. The m/cap is still only £2.5M - trifling - and in this scenario 1p or even 2p would easily be possible. 250M/tons of copper at 3.8% right next door!!
Maybe the only hope for this one will be in drilling KON-16 next year. At least if they hit oil it's guaranteed to still be there and not all used up like looks likely with KON-11. And CRCL are the operator so they might not take 4 months to drill a couple of wells to less than 1000 metres each and then struggle for another 3 to 4 months trying to get the oil to flow.
So much for state-owned Sonangol - they are pathetic at best.
It says that some of their drill holes are as deep as 1800m to 2000m. The earn-in with Tertiary is for a minimum of 2000m over 2 holes so I would assume that if they hit copper at depth they will continue drilling until it runs out. That could be 2 very big holes. Imagine what that would do to the share price and m/cap.