Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Mogroside

Strikes me it would be an excellent time for Opti's US Partner to make available Microsoft based sweet fibres to the likes of coca cola. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/22/aspartame-diet-drink-health-risks-who/

Slim expert

Must admit not keen on shakes but love the slimmest porridge which has been the breakfast of choice for over a year now for both my wife and I, Also love the cacao flapjack which I have with a mix morning cofffee

The main purpose of extending territories is as an enabler to a multi national deal which in turn will lead to a jump in revenues

Elrico, so for clarity following the TW/SOH exchange, I presume that your thinking is that the 1M share trade at 13p a few weeks ago was in fact a transfer between Opti's holding to trading account and that it is these shares that are being drip fed into the market rather than a fresh sale of stock when SOH made it quite clear he would not sell them a further 1M shares at the current market price and at a time when the MM were deliberately dropping the sp despite seemingly wanting more stock?

Anon, your recent experience on HUM should have taught you how difficult it is to call the bottom on short term share price movements. Two year charts look pretty poor for nearly all growth stocks because of the changing political and economic environment with high inflation and interest rates the order of the day hitting risk appetite and with it the PE and hence share price and MC.

So what has changed at Opti to provide an investment or trading opportunity? Despite my previous posting which highlighted some of the over optimistic forecasts in the past, the most recent Investor Meets presentation was refreshingly realistic in terms of future prospects, indeed it was made deliberately pessimistic by SOH. The current MC values the company at nothing anyway with all the value tied up in its assets, we know revenues for 2022 will have fallen around the £500K mark and the recently announced cost reduction exercises (Board 20% pay cut, CEO replaced by SOH and two NEDs to leave at next AGM) will benefit 2023 rather than last year. However, examining the make-up of 2022 revenue, the second half recovery from the disastrous first half figures appear to be down to Improved online sales and the new region and partners , Nahdi and Apollo, rather than H&B and Optipharm orders which is reassuring especially as those latter two partners have now got through their overstocking and have started to order again.

So every reason to believe the 2023 revenue forecast of circa £1.750M for prebiotics and we have already been told the Probiotix sales have not been impacted so severely in 2022 and have grown meaning the latent value of the asset to opti will also pick up. So anon, I nor anyone else can predict whether the bottom has been hit here but I am pretty confident that we'll see 100% minimum upside by this time next year if the pessimistic forecast is achieved; whether you see the same at HUM is down to gold prices and no mining hiccups

....by 2026

...less than £11M

Elrico, not sure whether you had a visit from the Stasi over the weekend or just been imbibing too much Brew Dog so let me remind you over a couple of the forecasts:

From the Leanbiome launch RNS dated 01st Dec 2021 ". The agreement is expected to generate approximately £1m in annualised and recurring turnover for the Company starting in 2022. " actual revenue for 2022 as reported in the latest Investor Meet Forecast slide for leanbiome was £15K at 20 mins in.

From the Sep 2021 Investor Meets slide at 45 minutes in "Sweetbiotix Industrial scale-up and subsequent commercialisation of sweetbiotix products by US Partner £10M plus royalties per annum. Also, commercial agreement with leading company (now know to be Firmenech) on jointly scaling up and commercialising another group of sweetbiotix products £30-£50M per annum. Slimbiome+Wellbiome+Leanbiome product and ingredient revenue potential £30-£50M, and Microbiome Modulators £70M-£110M So total potential low estimates revenue £195M. Now fast forward to the latest Investor Meets in May 2023 and the total potential revenue forecast in the final slide has fallen to

Could make some pretty cool sunglasses too

There isn't a stock that doesn't carry opportunity and risk so a pretty meaningless statement Danners. What potential traders and investors have to consider is the probability and impact of said opportunity/risk. For Kefi, the signing of the Tulu Kapi Umbrella agreement has reduced the risk of the final agreement not being agreed by October to low and the impact of the final agreement being concluded in financial terms is high, so you have a low risk high impact opportunity especially at today's sp.

Hi Joy,

Can relate to all those experiences; having the windows open when you live near taxis drivers who return home at 3 am , followed by the dawn chorus at 4 am, and finally a family of crows wearing hob nailed boots walking on my roof at 5 am makes sleep near impossible. Sad thing is, if my investments hadn't shrunk so much I could probably have afforded to install and run air conditioning.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I guess putting the Nation under house arrest at a time of low inflation and near zero interest on savings accounts was always going to lead to a surge in demand for shares and drive up the PE the market was willing to support based on projected future earnings. Similarly, back to the office and high sustained inflation, and rising interest on good old saving accounts has had the reverse affect.

Regarding PBX, I continue to hold the dividend shares and fully expect the value to rise considerable once the financials are out as I expect the business is either be sold to a third party at fair value or moved across to Aim.

I also hold SBTX where revenues from the Croda deal will commence 2024 and dramatically drive up the sp, although I would not be surprised to see Croda actually buy out Skin if the additional benefits already found during scale-up are confirmed during clinical trials commencing Nov 2023.

Opti with a market cap of circa £6M is something of a steal at the moment based on its asset holdings alone. SOH has been very open in revealing the 2022 Partner projections for first generation product demand which failed to materialise because like many companies the partners found that they had overstocked for supply chain reasons at the same time demand for their products plummeted because of changing consumer habits during covid restrictions where pizza deliveries rather than dieting was top of peoples priorities.

So in conclusion, with obesity now soaring (near 74% in England for 45-74 yos) and holidays back on the agenda so slimming back in vogue, extra partners in Saudi and India with US deals pending, the value of Opti's investments likely to rise significantly, and a sweetbiotix soft launch anticipated this year, the share price is only going in one direction from here once the 2022 results have been put to bed and the 2023 half year results are out

Well done Toyin, and TW did some sterling work today which led to the RNS and establishing that MM are also likely short of stock despite the recent share price movements. The sp could start to move back up quite quickly now

Cathal would certainly be a colourful addition to lead the Board. Never forgot the early covid days when he spoke of "healthy Africans" in an interview for what was Open Orphan at the time, as if it were a Country rather than a Continent.

Whoever is in change, what we need are attractive but realistic targets set that are regularly hit, rather than a history of overpromising and under delivery. Last chance saloon this year for SOH to turn things around

Hi skid,

The lack of a decent marketing budget has certainly been a handicap but to be fair the Business model started off as a pure B2B play with the online store merely a shop window for Business Partners who were handed the responsibility for the marketing side. The Business has recently evolved into a shared B2B/B2C model and there are clear signs that online product sales have risen significantly in 2023 for both the prebiotix and probiotix sides. With regards the sweetbiotix launch, marketing will be down to the US Partner rather than Opti for the mogroside based products so lets hope they get it right, whilst Opti may well take a more active marketing role for the Firminech partnership for the steveol glycosides based products. Whilst there is plenty of room for improvement, things are improving and I was impressed with Paul Cannings (Head of Operations and Quality) who quickly and professionally dealt with an issue I had with a recent order

The WHO Report flags up the huge opportunity for Opti and its US Partner using their Mogroside (Monk Fruit) based sweetbiotix products with their fibrous nature meaning they are classified as prebiotics. Just need to get the freeze=dried structure finalised and approved for the soft launch end of this year

"SweetBiotix® Publication: The Company is pleased to announce the publication of a study on the prebiotic activity and sweetness of one of its SweetBiotix® products in a peer reviewed journal (see https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jafc.2c01363). The study reports that enzymatic synthesis of modified mogroside and galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) from lactose was able to generate products which positively modulated the microbiome with a sweetness profile similar to sugar. The products sweetness, bulking and prebiotic fibre properties could make it a suitable replacement to sugar in everyday products. This is one of a number of SweetBiotix® products developed for different application types in food, beverages, and dairy. Publications by independent authors in peer reviewed journals are critical in establishing industry awareness and credibility in the Company's products and provide valuable marketing assets to support product launches."

Https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/food-types/are-sweeteners-safe/

Cheers elrico and nice reply posted on SP. I can still see your original post by the way so if it was taken down has been reinstated. Interested to see that SOH did sell over a million shares in Feb 23 at 20.4p which went unreported as stayed within the < 1% holding reduction at the time

A very sensible post Swede. As a longer term holder you I suspect know the answer to the cashflow question as the Company were obliged to tell the market that they would rely on loans or equity raises rather than expected revenue under the going concern part of the EOY Accounts. Since Sep 2022 when £1.4M cash was held, there has been £1.85M raised in Dec 2022, £318K gross raised 15th March 2023 and £513.6K gross May 3rd 2023 and with a £5M UK Innovate Loan awaiting repayment, little wonder no further loans have materialised. The one bit of good news is as the last fundraise was at a sp of just 1.25p, then the Company may be able to raise substantially more if they are quick following the recent sp rises which remind me of pyramid selling.