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They have certainly had plenty of time to prep for the Study, the Acne formulation was reported stable back in Dec 2022!

"During the year, the Group has been developing a new bacterial blend. Management is pleased to report that the pilot formulation is stable and it is looking to design a consumer study in the same form as the BRIGHT study for Axis-Biotix-Ps™. This study is anticipated to commence during 2023. In the meantime, the team is assessing the options for the most appropriate commercialisation strategy, on the basis of a positive outcome."

Depends on who and whether they already have someone "bedded" out and hence involved with the study bet will be tight

Also, whilst Opti as a major shareholder in Skin is now recorded as a reduced 15.7 investor in Skin, they actually sold 15% of their own original 32M shares as my good friend Glyn from Bristol pointed out to me.

Opti actually sold 5M shares in Skin between Feb and July (1M Feb and the 4M balanced that crossed the reporting threshold thereafter)

Last figure should read end dec 22 of course :}

Timescales for the Psoriasis Consumer Study were; 13/01/21 Enrolment Announcement, 17/02/21 Study Commenced, towards end Apr 21 Study Concluded, 26/05/21 Results of the Study Announced.

So bearing in mind the enrolment period was extended for psoriasis to cater for demand and a stricter first come first served approach may be applied for Acne, conceivably a 01st Sep 23 enrolment announcement would allow for a Study start mid Sept, two lots of 28 day Acne product consumed/chewed by mid Nov 23 and the results made available to a Multi National Partner shortly thereafter before announcing to investors Dec 23

Outlook may well be positive but I think I'll wait for the Interims next month to see the Cash and Equivalent position rather than the combined Cash and Short Term Investment figure reported in the Trading Update. Looking back, Cash and Equiv was £151.4M End Dec 21, £107.4M End Jun 22, and £63.3M end Dec 23 so surely funds will be required soon?

Sep 01st would be a good day to announce the launch of the Acne Consumer Study

https://www.holidaycalendar.io/holiday/national-acne-positivity-day

24 carat of course

Zak Mir talks of a potential Golden Cross forming and short term 32p target

https://www.share-talk.com/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-thursday-17th-august-2023/

Bit of a naive rhetorical question MRPlumper. The syndicate is drawn from a disparate group of Stakeholders including two different Banks and the Ethiopian Govt not one organic and related group so who would lead the buy-out and risk starting the whole funding cycle all over again by replacing one lead co-ordinator with in depth knowledge of the risks and opportunities (KEFI) with another?

07th Sept

Relevant paragraph and link to Glanbia Results

"Americas

GPN Americas revenue for HY 2023 was broadly in line with the prior year, with strong growth in the ON and Isopure

brands offsetting the anticipated declines in the SlimFast brand. Pricing was positive across all brands.

The ON brand continues its strong performance and delivered US consumption growth in the 12 weeks to mid-July

of 14.3% building on a strong comparative period. Trends in the healthy lifestyle portfolio remained robust, with US

consumption growth in the 12 weeks to mid-July of 11.7% across the think!, Isopure and Amazing Grass brands. The

strong growth in the ON and Isopure brands in the period was driven largely by the powders format, which continues

to resonate as a value offering with consumers.

The SlimFast brand, which now represents 11% of the GPN global portfolio, continues to decline as ongoing

challenges within the diet and weight management category have resulted in reduced shelf space and velocities. US

consumption in the 12 weeks to mid-July was down 33.0%. Pending a recovery of the diet and weight management

categories, GPN plans to prioritise investment and resources behind the performance nutrition and healthy lifestyle

brands."

https://www.glanbia.com/sites/glanbia/files/glanbia/investors/results-presentations/2023/glanbia-2023-half-year-results.pdf

Spotted the same elrico but you do need to dig a little deeper. Overall the Glanbia profits and outlook rose because of the growth in other areas in their business such as Protein shakes. So equating the results to Opti, whilst the future of the Slimbiome incorporation into replacement shakes could take a hit, this should be more than offset by the uptake of leanbiome and wellbiome in protein and healthy eating products

I wonder if the delay in the timeline for the Acne Study was to allow lab R&D input for the Skin Inflammation Programme to inform the optimum formulation, after all we are talking about a revolutionary treatment based on new data that states it is the loss of balance between the different C. acnes phylotypes, together with a dysbiosis of the skin microbiome, which results in acne development (see link1), rather than the current NHS listed causes that look more like symptoms (see link 2).

Now where things start to get really exciting is that each of the NHS recommended treatments (also link 2) are designed to address one or more of the symptoms rather than the root cause, (a bit like the three pronged attack of fighting fires by removal of oxygen, fuel or heat) focused on reducing or killing bacteria on the surface of the skin, and or the removal of dead skin cells, and or reducing the production of sebum; all these treatments have unpleasant side effects.

So I now have an appreciation as to the added value of a successful Acne Study in sealing a deal with a big MultiNational based on a natural product with no side affects that addresses the actual cause.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40257-020-00531-1

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/acne/treatment/

Came across this Research Paper drafted Nov but published Jun 2023 exploring the association between skin, the dermal microbiome and Ultraviolet radiation when looking at next generation sunscreens. Not a huge leap of faith required to imagine maybe with skinbiotix wound healing properties it also repairs sun damaged skin and this may be what Croda are excited about. Oh by the way included in the co-authors are Catherine O Neill, Andrew McBain and Bhaven Chavan (Croda Personal Care)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371843604_Exploring_associations_between_skin_the_dermal_microbiome_and_ultraviolet_radiation_advancing_possibilities_for_next-generation_sunscreens

Touche Clio, drafting a reply at the same time

Toyin, I am aware of the contents of the interview but unless the Consumer Study recruitment has somehow been undertaken in secret, then as far as the information that has been RNS'd is concerned, the imminent news will be that the Acne formulation has been finalised and that recruitment for a short Consumer Study is now being launched. The Psoriasis recruitment took less than 1 month from announcement followed by a two month study so there is still time to conclude a similar Acne Study this Calendar Year

Toying, what acne results are you expecting the Consumer Study has not even recruited yet?

Elrico, I'm pretty sure Gary did mean the end of this year after all, Stuart quoted cashburn of £200-£250k per month, and at the higher figure 12 mths * £250k = £3m with revenues likely to add back circa £150k at the most and even the lower figure would leave a balance of £750K wth addback revenue at end Dec 23 which wouldn't prevent a material uncertainty having to be included in the end of year accounts. That said, early 2024 passive revenues are expected from Croda but as TW pointed out, it might be prudent to raise £1M at year end to make things comfortable if the news driven sp rise makes this a viable option