Member Info for AquaeSulis01

The Dr Morepen subsidiary which sli mbiome is associated with is 21/22 crore per qtr covering hundreds of products only a few of which are to do with Weight management. But there is a major !marketing campaign promised to support the laumch

Latest accounts showing the breakdown associated with Dr Morepen products, not that special but apparently going to spend a lot of money promoting the Slimbiome product launch

https://www.morepen.com/public/uploads/media/Morepen65bb94f1a8d50.pdf

The sp has been valued at 24p for just 38.5% of.your holding and the company is spending £30m to deliver this increase. Post the cancellation of 90% of bought back shares with remaing 10% held in treasury for future staff options, surely the market cap falls by £30m giving a post tender sp of circa 15p? The upside is at 15p when the £3m buy back commences, nearer 6% of the residual shares rather than 3.9% at 24p will be acquired and cancelled, or have I missed something?

While some understandably look back in anger, I find it more therapeutic with so much skin in the game, to look forward to the anticipate news referred to in the Conversion RNS "We anticipate further updates in the coming weeks in the lead up to the HY results in March." which we now know to be as soon as Mar 22nd. Croda, Unmesh Modi launch forecast, Acne Stats, Oral Study all potentIal candidates

Me too dv but looks like a Willie Mullins benefit year at the Festival. Garlic Warrior for me in the Supreme

Bear, TW gets many things right but also many things wrong, his most recent was advising others to take part in a Primary Bid for Kefi at 60p yesterday whilst others commented you would get in cheaper post the bid and today you can as I type (58p), he also wrongly stated the Modi deal was in the Cavendish forecasts.

I have done my own research and following the SOH interview where both used the Hope word about a Croda deal materialising, despite TW previously when pinned down by me admitting he expects the deal to go through, I posted the following comment to TW that did not get a response.

"SOH’s explanation of the confidence in the Indian deal £1.2M yr 1 forecast because Indian Companies prepare a comprehensive Business Case that they share with partners was very informative and thankyou for asking the question. What I draw from that is Dermatonics should have had similar access to that information from Unmesh Modi, will have influenced Modi’s decision to invest in manufacturing capability and hence Manprit will be aware of the figures the Business Case contains and will have been a factor Skin considered when determining the value of the acquisition. My own view is that the cash flow from this deal will be nearer a million than the paltry low six digit return you expect over the next 12 months, after all £540K is expected from the US Market launch on Amazon US based on a 30% uplift in the Cavendish forecasts , with the right marketing behind it the Indian market promises far more.

3. Both your and SOH’s use of the term Hope for the Croda deal proceeding is ridiculous.

The Risk “..there is a risk that Croda having invested in scale-up, confirmed the original clinical findings from Manchester University and found yet more benefits subject to a further clinical study will be abandoned” will result in an impact statement of Very High but a Probability rating of very low and hence the decision would be to tolerate it rather than treat it through mitigation. Consequently, the real risk is “...there is a risk that the Croda launch will not happen soon enough to generate sufficient revenues for Skin to avoid the need for a further fund raise” Impact on share price High Probability Medium therefore treat with mitigation options, Reduce Board Pay, Suspend or vastly reduce R&D outlay, acquire accretive companies and generate additional revenues and cost savings through synergies"

The above is my opinion which of course could be wrong but I feel certainly supports the view that a Croda deal will be announced hopefully sooner rather than later

Mol, the stats for Unmesh Modi look ok to me

"Umesh Modi Group, one of the largest industrial conglomerates in India, has made its mark in various business sectors. The group’s interests span diverse ventures, including pharmaceuticals, health and nutrition, sugar industries, liquor and distilleries, color cosmetics and personal care, pet care, sponge iron and steel, welding and electrodes, power generation, ice creams, printing and packaging, retailing, writing instruments, tour and travels, and warehousing facilities1. With 30 branch offices, 18 production units, and over 10,500 skilled professionals, Umesh Modi Group operates across India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh1. The group boasts two R&D centers and collaborates with 15 multinational companies, distinguishing it as one of the leading business houses in India with a significant number of foreign collaborations.

Mr. Umesh Kumar Modi, the visionary behind the group, has taken both conservative and courageous steps in business. In the 1980s, he initiated joint ventures and alliances with European and American companies, introducing many international brands to India, such as Betadine®, HepaMerz®, Revlon®, Senator®, Rockford Reserve®, Nitrocotin®, and Mederma®1. The group’s annual turnover exceeds US $332 million.

The Umesh Modi Group has a global presence, efficiently marketing and distributing its products in domestic, South Asian, African, CIS nations, and other international markets1. Their commitment to delivering quality products continues to drive their success."

Taking your statement "whilst an extemely large potential market, not one that readily avails itself to outside companies." surely that is the whole point of making yourself defacto an inside company by lending your brand to Modi's own new "Pheet" version via a manufacturing and marketing deal. It is this same approach that SOH is pursuing leading SOH to predict revenues 10 times his US Market launch figure showing the potential of launching clinically proven products into a market where there is a huge unmet lead because of limited foreign brand competition at an affordable price. So as we now know that the Cavendish Dermatonics uplift of 30% for FY 2025 ( calendar year 2024) mainly represents the US Amazon launch, and this roughly equates to £540K, then applying an Opti style 10 times uplift for a similar launch means Unmesh Modi could be targeting revenues of £5.4M and Skin's share at a margin of 20% would be just over £1M cash. Here's hoping anyway

Heard the Sherrif of Aim has just released a version of the Mac Davis hit Oh Lord it's so hard to be humble

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

when you're perfect in every way,

I can't wait to look in the mirror

cause I get better looking each day

To know me is to love me

I must be a hell of a man.

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

but I'm doing the best that I can.

I guess you could say I'm a loner,

The Aim Sherriff tough and proud.

I could have lots of friends if I want to

but then I wouldn't stand out from the crowd.

Some folks say that I'm egotistical.

Hell, I don't even know what that means.

Some 34 years as a City Analyst

Other opinions aint worth a Hill of Beans.

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

when you're perfect in every way,

I can't wait to look in the mirror

cause I get better looking each day

To know me is to love me

I must be a hell of a man.

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

but I'm doing the best that I can.

I crossed swords with a pesky Hobbit

Making a hell of a din

Rattling on about a Dermatonics acquisition

I called it a loss he a win

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

when you're perfect in every way,

I can't wait to look in the mirror

cause I get better looking each day

To know me is to love me

I must be a hell of a man.

Oh Lord it's hard to be humble

but I'm doing the best that I can.

We're doing the best that we can

Yeehaw!

Bel, now that we KNOW elrico has been proven right and that the Modi deal is not included in Cavendish figures then the following plays out as a real possibility for this year alone:

"Tom, you readily accept a forecast from SOH of £1.2M revenue alone from a prospective deal with an unnamed Indian Company for Functional Fibres to be manufactured and marketed in India by the partner when Opti generated just £433K revenues in total for the last reported difficult 2022 year. However, Dermatonics generated £1.82M revenue for that same difficult year and have negotiated a similar manufacture and market deal with a named Indian Company and et you refuse to contemplate it could make a similar impact to SOH's forecast."

Now bearing in mind that SOH is forecasting £1.2 in yr 1 alone, and nearer £5M per annum in later years IF the deal is concluded H2 (so for just half a year 2024), and as I pointed out Dermatonics products attract far higher revenue with the products now launched by Modi, then not unrealistic to expected revenues, or should that be cash, as Modi are bearing production and marketing costs, of at least £1M this year which will silence the doom merchants me thinks.

Hobbit 1 TW 0

Should add the following info to my earlier post which attempted to provide the bear and bull case regarding the Acquisition.

The 2024E figure in the Cavendish report represents the year ending Jan 2024 so is in fact 2023 Calendar Year figures making 2025E this current years expectations where they only allow 30% growth based on the following:

"Revenues – We expect ‘Dermatonics’ to launch a range of its products in the US via the Amazon

platform and for this to be a key driver of revenue growth in FY25E. Such growth is expected

to be supported by growth in Asia and Eastern Europe and on-going growth in the domestic

market, particularly to the NHS and podiatrist clinics"

This to my mind is nowhere near enough to include a launch into the Indian, Bangladesh, Nigerian, and Middle east markets, hence my debate with Tom who does present a logical argument as why it would have been included, but has it?

PG, I don't pretend to speak for elrico however, we do seem to share similar views on the value of the Modi deal.

Firstly the current Cavendish Forecasts for Dematonics are:

Revenues 2,000 FY 24E, 2,600 FY 25, 2,800 FY 26E growth 30.0% FY 25E 7.7% FY 26E

TW is correct in that as the deal was signed Jun 2023 the Cavendish analyst will have factored in his view on its worth although probably not for 2024 E as it was not expected to be ready for launch so early. I was one of the prodders that lead to TW in his excellent Bearcast yesterday patiently explaining why the analyst would have included his view of the deal, what is open to debate is whether the analyst has been too risk averse in his estimates, Elric and some others believe that is the case whilst TW does not. Hopefully, the following exchanges between TW and others explain the differences in opinion:

TW

As I explained, and you neglect to mention, the deal was signed LAST YEAR so the analyst will have factored it in.

I cant see how with the reorg cost and year 1 defcon Dermatnics will not bleed material cash this year. next year if forecasts are edged up it might just cover the defcon and so maybe by year 3 it covers it by a bit. But overall over the 3 years it will be a bleed and for that we have cricified the SP wirth the worst death spiral provider in town and it still has 1.43m to dump.

Response

Tom, you readily accept a forecast from SOH of £1.2M revenue alone from a prospective deal with an unnamed Indian Company for Functional Fibres to be manufactured and marketed in India by the partner when Opti generated just £433K revenues in total for the last reported difficult 2022 year. However, Dermatonics generated £1.82M revenue for that same difficult year and have negotiated a similar manufacture and market deal with a named Indian Company and et you refuse to contemplate it could make a similar impact to SOH's forecast.

TW

No I risk weight SOH's claims in my numbers as I made abundantly clear.

Response

Tom, thankyou for the excellent explanation in today’s Bearcast over how the Cavendish analyst will have operated and hence will have included something to represent the Modi deal contribution somewhere within within their forecast on a risk waited basis, it was well worth "kicking your tyres" to tease out this succinct and unemotional response.

I guess I am in the SOH optimistic camp and hope that both he and I am right about the size of the financial opportunity coming the way of both Opti and Skin, rather than the more risk averse approach both you and the Cavendish analyst have taken. What is not in dispute is the lousy deal SA struck to finance the acquisition, I just hope that with the unexpectedly early launch of the Dermatonics products by Modi ,that SA has lucked out with its timing in the same way that Cathal did when Covid struck shortly after forming Open Orphan.

Finished marginally in the blue on the NYSE so hopefully will gradually recover now

It is a relief that the facility is not going to be used for further acquisition after being told about the first conversion this was " a pilot conversion to ensure smooth facilitation of the process." I half expected to be told following this latest notice that they also had a co-pilot!

SA undoubtedly believed when he took out the loan that the acquisition would be seen as accretive and along with other news such as the acne progress, the share price would rise and hence make the loan less dilutive which of course has not proved the case. It didn't help that the RNS announcing the Modi partnership failed to make it crystal clear that any revenue resulting from the Indian market was not already factored in to the Cavendish forecasts. Tin hats on for the TW take on this rapid about-face

Things are even better for sweetbiotix than relayed in the latest RNS. Having spotted there was no mention of the standalone sweetbiotix product referred to in the sweetbiotix update RNS less than a month ago, I posed the following question and received the response below.

"One question regarding the sweetbiotix statement "The Company has included SweetBiotix® in a finished product for a large global partner with a view for an upcoming launch. The Company hopes to see SweetBiotix® in an increasing number of products launched throughout 2024." Does this mean that there is no longer an intention to first launch sweetbiotix as a direct bulk sugar replacement as announced in the sweetbiotix update less than one month ago?

"Discussions are ongoing but are likely to involve a phased introduction of SweetBiotix® products as a direct bulk sugar substitute and then introduced into OptiBiotix's and partners consumer products across an increasing range of applications. "

Response from SOH

"We still intent to launch sweetbiotix as a bulk sugar replacement. These two approaches are not mutually exclusive. We have been surprised and somewhat pleased that progress has been made so quickly with a large corporate in terms of inclusion in a final product."

So two shots at goal :)

Stop sitting on the fence HumptyDumpty, it wont end well for you, perhaps shares in Shell might be more up your street? :)

Taken from the Croda Results RNS today under Strategic Update, hopefully one of the Big Bet Projects spoken of , the launching of novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada, is ours.

Innovation is at the heart of what we do, creating new market and technology niches. We filed more than 100 new patents in 2023 and have stepped up our rate of innovation through more external partnerships, for example with Amyris and BSI for sustainable vaccine adjuvants. Even in the unprecedented market conditions that we have seen this year, customers are continuing to invest in new product development, drawing on Croda's deep scientific expertise and application-focused innovation. The foundation of our innovation model is internal R&D investment, applying the expertise of our scientists at our global innovation centres to meet customer needs. Our R&D teams now report directly into Consumer Care and Life Sciences, ensuring that our priorities are customer driven. This is complemented by 'big bet' projects often delivered with partners from our open innovation network which provides access to universities and SMEs, helping develop new intellectual property.

Strategic priorities

We are implementing specific strategic priorities to ensure our refocused portfolio delivers consistent top and bottom-line growth. Alongside our sector strategies we are (1) scaling biotech, (2) exploring acquisition opportunities to supplement organic capital deployment, (3) investing in fast growth in Asia, and (4) improving our customer and employee experience through our 'doing the basics brilliantly' programme.

'Scaling biotech' will transform our approach to sustainability, particularly in reducing customers' scope 3 carbon emissions. Projects are underway to develop bio-based fragrance ingredients, prioritising aroma chemicals which are used in a high proportion of our fragrance references. Our Beauty Care business is adding biotech-derived surfactants to our existing ECO range, and Beauty Actives is launching novel anti-ageing actives developed through collaboration between our biotech and high throughput screening centres in the UK, France and Canada.

Slimbiome fibres retail at £30k per tonne

Baz, what you need to appreciate is that these promising results are after 35 days and Skin replenishes every 40-56 days which means results will either be a lot more impressive or not so good, hence the caveat, but I know which outcome I am betting on

A reminder of the stated aim for each B/U to be profitable at least on a month by month basis by end 2023; From 2023 Aug Commercial Update; “Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix Health plc said: "We are making good progress on our aims of getting existing partners returning to forecast, bringing in new partners, particularly in the USA and Asia, and expanding e-commerce channels to grow online sales and reduce partner dependency. This is all part of plans for each business unit (USA, India, Ecommerce, B2B) to reach operational profitability, at least on a monthly basis by the end of the calendar year.”

So at the very least we should have been provided with the position for each B/U but we were only told about one B/U, e-commerce "E-commerce sales for 2023 were 287% up on 2022 driven by strong growth in China of gummies and large increases in Amazon Prime subscriptions. This progress led the consumer health business to profitability in October and November 2023". We know the first meaningful US order slipped into 2024 so probably mainly the royalty payment from the US partner circa £85K in 2023 for sweetbiotix. Any H&B and THG sales percentage increases are coming off a very low base, 2022 figures with a rough guess of how much to reduce regional sales for to allow for PBX sales inclusion are as follows;

Probiotix £24,000.00

Functional Fibres £433,000.00

TOTAL £457,000.00

Functional fibres by Region

UK (minus est £5000 PBX sales) £127,000.00

India £61,000.00

ROW (minus est £4000 pbx sales) £160,000.00

US (minus est £15000 PBX sales) £85,000.00

TOTAL £433,000.00

On the plus side, and it is a big plus, 2024 looks to be much healthier and the launch of sweetbiotix will be a game changer