Member Info for appletree1

Yay! Picked up 10k more shares at 99.9p just now. There are very few sells at this bargain SP level, which is not surprising since any placee that has been flipping won't have any worthwhile profit and the rewards for just a bit of patience should be far higher. Already the SP is recovering from that dip. I suspect that anyone looking to buy shares at this close to placing level wont have opportunity for much longer.

If you look back over the last couple of days chat you will see that the majority here are fairly confident that we should reach the Align broker's note modest target of 2.7p by year end. The more bullish posters consider 5p to 10p achievable by year end. IMHO bullish SP targets of 5p and over this year would be feasible if a) the company successfully fulfills its current strategic objectives for the year; b) the Price of Gold follows the uptrend predicted by Goldman Sachs and c) the gold explorer and miner stocks cycle back into a bull market too. The 2.7p modest broker target assumes that the Price of Gold stays at around the 1,800 USD level. Goldman Sachs latest PoG forecast is 2,150 USD - with a potential rise to 2,500 if US structural inflation persists above 4% despite the Fed's planned rate rises. Of course, if a large part of the 3 trillion USD crypto market collapses for any reason (? bubble burst in meme coins and NFTs/ bear cycle/ regulatory squeeze) the upside for gold is likely to be enormous and the SP could go up much higher. Some factors specific to GCAT that could lead to even higher rises include if any unexpectedly high gold strikes are made at Kili or the Tanzanian fields or if GCAT acquire more strong new prospects at bargain prices.

Riesgo, regarding your question 'Why boost the dose by 50% if Precision gives an 18 fold boost?' , I think you misunderstand how the AVA6000 mechanism works. Its benefit relies on the fact of being able to safely administer higher than normal drug doses.
The delivery to the tumour is systemic. The prodrug is introduced via catheters and circulates through the patient's vasculature until some of it encounters the tumour. Not all of the administered dose will encounter the tumour. You cannot simply give a normal dose of Doxorubicin in the AVA6000 prodrug form and expect an 18 fold benefit. The benefit is gained by raising the administered dose of the prodrug so that it is well beyond the normal Maximum Tolerable Dose for Doxorubicin so that far more of the drug can reach the cancer tissues than normal. In the preclinical trials example many times the normal mouse-tolerable Dox dose was given to the mice in the AVA6000 (proDox) form and circulated through the mice bodies relatively harmlessly until reaching the site of their cancerous liver tissue and only there being activated to the drug form on entering the cancer cells. Accordingly, the current trials need to get to a level of dose higher than Doxorubicin MTD to show an effect. The first cohort was dosed at the normal Doxorubicin MTD as a precaution, since it is the first time for use of the prodrug in human. The current cohort is at a 50% more figure as a first step above Doxorubicin's MTD . The subsequent cohorts will be higher still. The PK data, biopsy data (and possibly any images of tumour changes) that are being released this Summer should include results from these higher dosed cohorts and give good signposts for efficacy even though the official efficacy results will be from the 1b part of the trial.

Good that we are heading back up a bit now and that buy volumes are increasing. I think Mojolse is right that the placees will generally not be flipping any sizeable volumes for a mere 10%. The low liquidity of the stock does make it much more feasible to sell later, after holding for strong SP gains and increasing volumes over the coming weeks and months. Possibly the new investors will even also be adding to their positions in the open market too. Awaited assay results and new licenses are near term catalysts for increasing the SP and improvements to production are being made continuously, hence the reasonable expectation that the share-price will be substantially higher over the next few weeks and be multiples of this level by the second half of this year.

Wyndrum, if you were invested in Avacta in the run up to the last big placing then you will have contributed to Avacta's funding at the time whether you care to acknowledge it or not. Everyone buying and holding the stock at the time did. You don't have to be patting yourself on the back/ virtue-signalling because of that but the potential greater good benefit of supporting their work nonetheless exists. Ethics (and charitability) are not defined intrinsically by self-interest and virtue-signalling and the greater good they bestow is a valid end in itself. The 'oh its just virtue-signalling' argument is not a sound basis to dismiss them. Making choices to buy, add to, hold and sell a stock can be, and often are, based on a multitude of reasons and motives, not simply greed and fear. Ethical considerations are part of the mix for many investors nowadays and rightly so. Indeed, a number of investors here and in other medical stocks invest primarily as a result of their own experiences of a disease affecting them, a friend or close relative and not simply in the hope of swift gains on the stock.

Taverham is correct. Wyndrum, your 'investors are parasites' analogy is trite and your disconnect implies that you believe ethical investing is meaningless too. The SP level affects the company whenever they need finance and is very important to the company's progress. We provide capital directly through placings not just IPO, and the stock provides security for third party raises too. We might not be critical to the company just at the moment given that they are well-financed for this year, but will be relevant in due course. Many of us are much happier to be invested in a healthcare stock that has a good chance of helping the fight against cancer than in the average stock that adds to pollution, carbon footprint, cancer etc. [Who would invest in the last century pension fund darling tobacco stocks nowadays ? ]. Stock investors are better regarded as symbiotes rather than parasites.

Wrong. No-one is trying to stop free speech, just abuse of the board. Anyone can make a relevant point without repeating it ad nauseam, deluging a board with their own personal opinion on an issue and at the same time repeatedly cross-ramping their favourite stock.

"60-odd posts in two days on a share you do not own is not "commentary". It is obsessive compulsive FUD spamming."
-----Don't just filter spammers and repeat cross-rampers - use the "report post" option. It works on other boards and has lead to threads being removed and, for repeat offenders, their account being blocked. Repeated cross-ramping is against this forums regulations.

Micro-caps like this whether AIM or main market tend to behave similarly due to the MM management of the shares for liquidity. The vast majority buying into GCAT are doing so as an investment not a swing trade and so the share is currently more stable than most micro-caps. It nominally cycles within a 1.0p to 1.3p band for the time-being primarily because the MMs make it do so for liquidity despite the small effective free float. There is very little selling by holders compared to the average micro-cap stock. ( Traders, other than John, can see that and tend to stick to the easier trades like the 'Covid' stocks ). Apart from news-driven rises it is very likely that there will be substantial fresh inflows here within the next seven weeks as we enter the new tax year ISA re-fill period. That is likely to be when this starts to break out of the current range and properly re-rate. 5p in H2 might be ambitious but is quite possible. I expect that we will reach the broker target on this well before year end as we pass the milestones.

John is on at least his sixth account in under 5 months, possibly more. Pity that LSE cannot just block IP addresses.

Not a mining expert but believe Gold on carbon refers to the activated Carbon of the heap leaching process, so is specific to the gold being recovered on that side of the production.

'Prelims in late March / early April, exact date not yet fixed" is the initial predicted news point that will likely give some uplift. News on licenses etc leading to rises are feasible in the interim. The SP may dip a bit more first but then likely rise slowly over the next few weeks with small peaks and escalating as April arrives. New tax year ISAs will likely add to the rises in early April. Main inflection will be with the Summer data release.

Clarets , according to CPFC84's comment on this board a couple of months ago the break-down at the time was : 150m performance shares at moderate performance targets ; 150m management warrants at 1p per share, raising £1m cash; 320m warrants at 2.5p per share, raising £8m cash.

To look at the ODX UK market potential more positively, whereas CTDA is a block on sales at the moment it is possible that approval under CTDA could be granted any day now if the approvals board actually pull their fingers out and do the job that they have been paid thousands of pounds by ODX in application fees for.. Certainly when the UK CTDA approval arrives I would expect a serious bounce in the share price here. Irrespective of that, the company can currently sell its products throughout the rest of the EU thanks to the CE mark.

I know that Avacta had only CE mark and still had to suspend sales of the LFT in the UK but not the rest of Europe when CTDA came into force last October. The CTDA legislation can and does override the EU regs primarily because we are no longer part of the EU. The current scandal has cost share-holders in UK Covid stocks hugely and has massively damaged the UK diagnostics industry largely to the benefit of China and the few that set up the deals and which have cost UK taxpayers over 3 billions of pounds.

Both Avacta and Novacyt had the CE mark and approval and were selling before the CTDA was brought into force and were immediately stopped from selling. https://www.lse.co.uk/news/novacyt-flags-possible-163-3m-hit-from-covid-test-regulations-change-spja218ykw1dwk7.html

The CDTA approval requirement in UK is an extra red-tape requirement that applies to ALL selling in the UK, not simply for government tenders. It applies over and above the CE mark certification. Peers such as Genedrive, Novacyt, Avacta and Abingdon are all in the same boat - most still waiting for over fourth months for the review board to approve tests for UK sales to enable the companies to start or even re-commence selling in the UK when the CDTA approvals were supposed to only take two weeks. The process of applying to CDTA generally uses the CE mark as a starting point. [This kicked off a lot of press coverage a few weeks ago, pointing out that this bureaucratic approvals process is currently only benefiting three Chinese manufacturers who were pre-approved via Porton Down and have a virtual monopoly not only of the UK government tenders but by default actually of the whole UK market due to the snail pace of the CDTA approvals process ]. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-test-approval-how-to-apply.

Interesting the shift to 'mild to moderate' from the 'moderate to severe' originally planned. That and the 'take home' aspect presumably will open it to a much bigger market ultimately if the trials are successful.

Why does the great and all-knowing Sangi say there is no safety data on oral Foralumab? https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200109005415/en/Tiziana-Reports-Phase-1-Clinical-Data-Demonstrating-Oral-Treatment-with-Foralumab-a-Fully-Human-Anti-CD3-Monoclonal-Antibody-is-Well-tolerated-in-Healthy-Volunteers

I agree that that bullish phrase in Align's report along with the comment on the trenching results is intriguing as it implies that Align may have had info on the exploration/ trenching results that has not yet been released to the market. Possibly we will receive more insight on the preliminary findings of the exploration along with the updates and Q4 report in the next 5 to 7 days.