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This spike was a herd-driven surge. (I don't think you can call it a 'Pump and Dump' when no-one was actually talking the stock up - but perhaps that is just semantics). These surges occur mostly because there are currently many disillusioned AIM stock investor/traders who have given up sticking with stocks and are rainbow-chasing sequentially through them, and especially through the zeitgeist Covid stocks at the moment. Of course it is not a coincidence that as one stock rises and then drops back another stock then rises and so on. Stock-specific news is not a pre-requisite when a stock has already fallen massively and is probably substantially under-valued like this one. On this occasion much of the hot money will almost certainly have come from the preceding Genedrive rise (and previously Avacta gained temporarily at Novacyt's expense etc, etc) . Some of the surge rise is likely to stick in each case, so there is some gain for the long-suffering loyal investors, but these spikes are still a hazard for any unwary investors who top-up into the rise rather than before-hand.
A few impatient traders selling out have dipped the price temporarily but as a sterling proxy for MINTO, following Minto's successful IPO in Canada currently this stock is now considerably undervalued and it should in time rise to fair value once the impatient traders have moved on.
In the words of Gati Al-Jebouri, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Pembridge regarding the Pembridge raise for funding Minto in September:
"This capital raise by Minto Metals, resulting in investment by new and existing shareholders at a pre-money valuation of CAD$ 156.6 million, confirms the true value of our investment in Minto. This additional capital will enable Minto Metals to further increase production, to benefit from the resulting economies of scale as well as the current strong price of copper and to extend its life of mine with further exploration. The capital raise and listing of Minto Metals provides a transparent third party valuation of our investment. I trust that the market will now recognise the value of Pembridge's investment and reflect this in the Company's market valuation. We are proud to have been involved in re-starting the mine and pleased that it is now able to move into a new phase of development with the upcoming listing and new capital and look forward to seeing the value of our investment increase as Minto Metals delivers on its long term objectives. With the expected cash inflows from Minto Metals and higher valuation of our company, I believe that we will be ready to execute on the fourth stage of Pembridge development, which I outlined in 2019 when I took over the leadership of the company. This stage is the identification of new projects to invest in and grow our business."
The SP was dipped below the 1.20p bid today by the MMs on very little visible selling (only about 1.5M shares sold - ie only about 17,000 pounds). On the face of it the MMs simply dipped the SP, exploiting the FTSE drop, to facilitate negotiated buys and to encourage further buying volume. There were about four times as many buys (6.3M) as reported sells (1.5M) today, though possibly there is also a worked sell/ delayed sell (or worked buy) not yet showing that will be reported tomorrow. On the face of it the SP should be just on the verge of bouncing back over the 1.20p bid level. [We saw the 1.15 bid level briefly intra-day last week too and there isn't any serious selling pressure then or now at that level ]. In addition to the technical support for the SP at this level, we are on the cusp of receiving important updates that should trigger a substantial rapid upwards re-rate of the SP.
I am averaging down too. Since the MMs tree-shook the stock this morning by 8% to stimulate buys I have added more again today.
'CE will take some time' ie only 9 more days until we can start selling according to the RNS. Also, from the RNS : 'In the case of the new B.1.1.529 South African variant ("Omicron"), while less than 100 genetic sequences had been made publicly available at the time of CE submission, none of them had mutations affecting the assay design of the Genedrive® COV19-ID Kit.
The Company expects demand will emerge in areas like urgent need to travel, work places with risk of transmission is high (e.g. care homes), elite sports, cruise ships and emergency care. genedrive believes it can achieve a transfer price of £20-30 per test and around £2,000 for the units.
NB. The drop this morning was a bit false. Quite a lot of buys don't show on here or Google ( and the SP even appeared to be static at a sell low for nearly an hour between 11 and 12) just because the MMs chose to put those buys on Aquis rather than the LSE .( Why does the AQUIS still exist parallel to LSE? It seems that it is just a legacy factor that the MMs exploit as another convenient tool to hide the direction of trades).
The selling that folks talk about generally refers to the round blocks of hundreds of thousands and occasionally millions of shares at intervals with a peak right after the Vox interview selling into the greatly rising buy volume then but still ongoing at a lesser level since. The selling might include residual churn from initial seed investors from the IPO at the end of August,though the shares turnover has been calculated to be 125% of free float since IPO so possibly that could have expended by now but perhaps those seed investors were displaced by swing traders selling at the region of the 1.85p peak and are only now getting closer to closing out. Further possibilities are that the selling relates to selling of shares given in lieu of payment to suppliers and brokers - perhaps even including GDP who took their final tranche of payment for the mine as yet more shares recently. Also, at least one poster has speculated that the upcoming Nairobi listing may lead to temporary price restraint in the run-up. Whatever the reason for the selling and price being held at this level currently, I am confident that a break-out to the upside will come in due course and continue to add to my holding.
For sure some of the negative commenters are just the usual de-rampers who have an agenda to talk the SP down even farther to maximize their swing trades and wishing for 14p or whatever (or to suit their CFD/shorts), and yes we all know too that there are also those that understandably simply want to vent their frustration over the disappointments of the last year. Encouragingly there were no real surprises in the RNS and clearly some investors had sold down ahead of the RNS as a precautionary measure and are re-buying after it alongside others who see the stock as technically in over-sold territory and still having potential. The disappointment in management (though FDA parochialism is also partly to blame) is naturally palpable given the events of the last year but objectively there is still genuine potential in the company for growth and for the stock to appreciate substantially, perhaps more so than many on Aim given the current low MCAP, the solid tech and the addressable markets. With that RNS out the way there is less immediate downside risk to the SP here and prima facie the balance swings to the upside and the SP has room to start to recover. (Like most here I've lost money on this stock over the last year and I am, of course, cautious about re-investing heavily, but I still believe that there may well be real opportunity in it and that it is worth holding some in a balanced portfolio).
Phoenix has had an OTC listing as PXCLF since 2018 but which is not directly linked to the LSE stock. The new stock ticker of PXCLY relates to the new ADRs that are based on securitized bundles of 10 LSE shares. A primary point of launching the ADR stock on OTC is to open up to those institutional investors who are otherwise barred from dealing with normal 'penny stocks' on OTC. As with all launches of this nature, patience is required to allow for the stock to gain visibility and be bought into.
Speaking of MM manipulation, it seems to me that the over-crowded group of MMs on this Aquis stock regularly run the price up and down in an exaggerated fashion out of proportion to volume and I dare say that the lack of online trading and quotes with Aquis feeds into the volatility too. The current drop is yet another example of the MMs walking the price down on low volume. On the plus side, the low volume and the small nature of sells currently shows that we have no apparent selling by the major investors here, who seem to be quite happy to wait for the next news.
The buy: sell determination by this platform (and ADVFN) is just a guesstimate by an algorithm that merely looks at the mid price between the official Bid and Offer prices and just sees which side of the mid-price the current trade falls. This is a very rough way of distinguishing buy from sell and is often incorrect - sometimes most trades in a day are wrongly determined, especially when the live bid and sell prices skew relative to the official bid and sell prices. To rigorously assess whether a trade is a buy or sell it is often essential to check what the current actual live bid and offer prices are rather than relying on the official ( 'book') bid and offer prices. To do that most of us would normally get a quote for buy and sell. On Aquis getting a quote is a pain because it has to be done by phone not a simple dummy buy or sell for a quote online. Hence Aquis is more opaque than Aim or FTSE main market.
ADVFN shows the first two trades of today as buys and the buy to sell ratio as 3:2 currently. The trading volume is low today and the MMs do seem to have a habit of walking the price down on low volume days and when the main market is down like this, so I'm treating this as a further top-up opportunity ahead of the awaited news.
Tiger, Terry and the rest of the shorting and de-ramping crew are trying their hardest to convince holders to sell and let them drive the price down even farther to increase their profits at our expense but they wont have everything their way. The SP should recover in due course. The shorters and doom-mongers will, of course, all eventually tire and get bored and move on to another target to harass. Then the stock will recover to fair value.
This stock will recover and the shorting crew will get burnt in due course. The news is real. All licensing contracts start with LOI and proceed with due diligence. So the derampers and shorters now make out that surprises them and that there is no progress. That is, of course, pure de-ramping nonsense.
Sangi isn't invested currently but he knows that TILS' MABs have potential which is why he invested originally and cannot keep away. He isn't on this board practically everyday currently to troll for no reason. Nor is he here simply to continually brag of superior insight into the industry than the average investors who invest more widely than him and have greater expertise in other stock types (many of whom will likely have made much more money on the market than him this year). He sticks to only the two stocks that he is comfortable with and interested in.
MMs do what they need to for liquidity and if that means increasing volatility by tree-shakes ahead of RNS they will do that. Steadying stocks is not their prime remit.
It's nice to see that the free float is moving into stickier hands today with the increased volume of buying and maintaining a high buy to sell ratio following yesterday's presentation. Though the MMs are currently holding the share price back from rising they are going to have to let it go soon if the buying pressure continues. Look forward to hopefully seeing the company's positive confirmation of the recent progress in the upcoming RNS next week , which could trigger or lead to the next leg up. All the signs are that solid progress is consistently being made by the company and the fundamentals are improving all the while. Prima facie the company is in a significantly better position now than it was at IPO (and the IPO seed investors, who all bought at 1.00p, don't want to sell at below the current 1.40p price hence the current stable price level). Absent bad news, in my view the downside here is currently minimal and the upside could be very substantial within both short and medium term.
Interesting that buys outweigh sells this morning 10 to 1. Possibly there is a worked large buy (or perhaps a worked large sell getting rid of a chunk of overhang) causing the MMs to continue to hold back the price for now. Either way, its looking promising. (The buying of shares in rounded blocks, eg the 1Million, .2M, .25M, 0.3M etc share blocks may be a clue to worked buying).
Seems most likely that the rise just now was not a leak or thin air rise but rather recovery from the unwarranted 'thin air drop' earlier. Probably some did chase the hoped-for GGP rise and then returned. In any event, in view of the recent RNS here the fundamentals are strong and the mid-term potential/ prospects are better than many stocks so I will keep adding on dips, as I did yesterday and this morning. I suspect that the resistance at 1.20p will get pushed through soon enough.