RE: CRM published19 Mar 2023 10:15
Well my take.. and I freely admit I don't know enough to justify an opinion...
A/ VW won't buy us out (nor will any other auto) because they don't want 49% of a resource in partnership with someone who doesn't want to mine it.
B/ A mining major may be reluctant as again, it's a minority stake. Depends on a deal with CEZ, which would have to be worked out in advance of any bid.
C/ If CEZ buy us out, they then have to formulate some complex deal with a mining major but will also want an auto, preferably VW as they're already in the CR, to buy in. Its becoming clear that autos want to buy into resources too.
D/ A CEZ buy out won't happen unless they know they can do a deal with a mining major, because CEZ don't want to mine.
E/ A mining major would be reluctant to join into such a deal in the absence of a DFS.
F/ If CEZ intend to go this way, why have they not already bought us? Maybe because they too have to wait for the DFS before fair value can be ascertained? Or does that date of 28th April when shares become 'unlocked' say that they haven't been able to move up to now but will do so then?
G/ Assuming that CEZ and a mining major do a deal, that still leaves CEZ's desire for an auto (VW) to be on board. So, if VW take 10% the remaining 90% needs to be split between CEZ and the miner.
Conclusion: Whatever plans anyone has in mind - and any scenario involves complicated tripartite negotiations - it all may depend upon the DFS (28th April being the caveat?), because that will be where the evidence of true value lies. CEZ may know what's there but anyone buying in will want more than their word on it. Consequently, we have to wait for the DFS before any corporate action.