Member Info for andypaps

The Oak security note from June 24 valued Rudyard on its base case (P50) at an NPV of $85.5mm, which is comprised of $76.5mm for the Contingent Resources, with the remainder ($8.9mm) for the deeper exploration play. This equates to 53p per share (at £1=$1.3) or 32p per share if at an average helium concentration of 0.9% as opposed to 1.5%.

The Oak security note also gave a high case (P10) at an NPV of $238.8mm, which is comprised of $215.2mm for the Contingent Resources, with the remainder ($23.6mm) for the deeper exploration play. This equates to 149p per share (at £1=$1.3) or 89p per share if at an average helium concentration of 0.9% as opposed to 1.5%.

Based on the 13th November RNS it looks as though the base case could be surpassed:

“"The Darwin #1 well at the Rudyard Project has significantly surpassed initial expectations. Helium gas shows measured by mass spectrometer reached a peak of 1,312 ppm, approximately 250 times the concentration found in ambient air. Mud logging identified 330 feet of potential gross pay, including previously untested formations accessed by deeper drilling. Notably, all targets are positioned higher than anticipated, indicating a larger-than-expected structural closure.”

As I’ve always said the Rudyard play will underpin the share price as well as commerciality giving Helix the opportunity to raise finance easily.

It's a 58 second video: This is the basis of the words spoken but there is additional information on a slide

What you see here is a section of our most recent drilling at Mont Agoma. This is the southernmost section line that we've drilled, and we have identified two significant zones of tin within the copper zone. We are currently awaiting the results, but based on visual inspection and observations on the ground, we have identified three discrete zones that are likely to contain tin. These zones have a combined thickness of approximately 25 meters.

We drilled a deeper hole, referred to as hole 17, and visually, there appears to be a substantial amount of tin in this hole. This discovery is particularly exciting for us as it indicates the potential for significant tin deposits in this area.

This is the full Twitter (X) message.

#RMR COO Mark Gasson highlights two significant #Tin zones within the #Copper zone at Mont Agoma. Deeper Hole 17 shows strong visible tin, potentially the best yet! Awaiting results. Watch Mark walk through the details below:

There is a video on Twitter within Roman Resources on X - search on "@Rome_Resources"

Proactive: Well, take us through what you discovered in that hole, then, Bo.

Bo Sears: During drilling, we had enormous shows in this well. It was an incredible well. It was fighting us the whole way down, meaning there’s a lot of gas under pressure coming back at us.

We had to increase our mud weight significantly, which can often cause damage near the wellbore, prohibiting gas from flowing to the surface.

I believe that is exactly what we have in the Flathead and the Charles formations.

Fair play to David for coming out and doing an interview after the debacle of yesterday and the recent PR campaigns.

I felt it was needed and he reiterated some good points e.g. quick cashflows via Rudyard , main targets at Ingomar and why commercial has to be benchmarked by returns to shareholders.

At 32:50 in the video, they mention Alphamin are in talks with IRH as a delegation from IRH recently visited the Bisie mining site, indicating a serious interest in the venture, although the discussions are not yet conclusive.

IRH, part of the International Holding Company controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has not released any statements regarding the potential deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see conversations between Rome Resources and IRH also gaining traction.

Amsden per the CPR (competent persons report) was estimated at 369mmcf.

Rudyard per the Oak research note was 592mmcf i.e.60% higher.

Subsequently the RNS from 13th November stated “"The Darwin #1 well at the Rudyard Project has significantly surpassed initial expectations. Helium gas shows measured by mass spectrometer reached a peak of 1,312 ppm, approximately 250 times the concentration found in ambient air. Mud logging identified 330 feet of potential gross pay, including previously untested formations accessed by deeper drilling. Notably, all targets are positioned higher than anticipated, indicating a larger-than-expected structural closure.”

Potentially this could be double the size of Amsden if not more. We will know soon as testing starts on Monday.

The 19th August RNS said that “A discovery may be declared only after samples of gas have been recovered to surface and analysed for helium”. This would need to be lab tested.

So the RNS 19th November titled Helium Discovery in Clink #1 met that objective (see below) as the Flathead helium was “discovered” at 2.5%

The prize is the Flathead. I am confident it will flow

Here are examples of LSE and AIM-listed companies that have employed acidization to enhance gas/oil flows:

1. Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Zephyr used acidization on their State 36-2R well, achieving peak test rates of over 2,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), including 510 barrels per day of condensate/light oil. This highlights the effectiveness of acidization in improving well performance.

2. Ascent Resources: This company successfully acidized the PEN-101A sidetrack well, which significantly enhanced its readiness for production. Post-acidization testing confirmed improved flow characteristics.

Key extracts from relevant RNS to date:

RNS 19th August - Helium Gas-Shows in Amsden and Charles Formations

A discovery may be declared only after samples of gas have been recovered to surface and analysed for helium.

Amsden formation 50x over background level.

Charles formation 130 x over background level.

RNS 19th November - Helium Discovery in Clink #1

· Flathead formation gas sample tested 2.5% helium, demonstrating significant helium potential with additional stimulation required to generate commercial flow rates.

I still think the incompetence over recent PR is shocking. There is no need for smoke & mirrors given what the company is sitting on.

PompeyM,

I'm not sure I agree your helium calculation. I make it a 0.14% concentration that yields $1m per annum. This likley makes more sense as 0.4% concentartion is the figure I see bandied around for being commercial when it comes to average flow rates. This Amsden formation is about a third too light to be commercial on its own (3 x 0.14 = 0.42%) implying a £3m revenue may have been in the ball-park to be commercial.

Your statement "Flathead needs additional stimulation, which means we're about to do a round 2 stimulation" doesn't appear correct to me as I read the prior RNS "Flathead formation gas sample tested 2.5% helium, demonstrating significant helium potential with additional stimulation required to generate commercial flow rates." as meaning that additional stimulation is needed, not that extra stimulation is needed on top of already tried stimulation.

There are only a handful of stimulation techniques and I can't see any that would have been deployed in the time frame and with existing resources.

As I've previously said the seals were the main risk for me. As helium hasn't migrated up from Charles / Flathead or if so in miniscule amounts then one would expect higher concentrations sealed in the reservoirs below.

I must address the whole Helix twitter/ proactive PR in the last week prior to today's RNS. There are no other words for it apart from shocking. In my view they dragged their heels on the Amsden results as they had concentrations of helium that were not too far away from being commercial in onsite testing. That's why I think my 0.14% is correct , as 0.4% may have been commercial (given it is commercial on the back of the other targets if they produce). They were hoping to get a commercial sample.

Whoever made that slide for the analyst conference call needs sacking - and if it turns about to be DM then so be it. The conference slide showed 2.5% helium when they must have know it was false. If not the incompetence shown should still result in the sack.

MrBasse, where is the recording - I couldn't see it on their website

I suggest that anyone that is uncomfortable here go and read the Oak Securities reserach note from June on the Helix website. It mainly concentrates on the value added by Rudyard. It's not the easiest of documents to pull out the Rudyard NPV element and what it means for the share price, as they state 93p for Helix as a whole, but that takes account of risk factors applied to Ingomar. The Rudyard element is 55p per share based on NPV.

Initial drilling since suggests the quality, quantity and chance of success are higher. My backstop has always been Rudyard as I believe it will be commercial. Once reserves are booked the share price will act accordingly. As I always say if there is too big a disconnect between share price and assets it becomes a takeover target especially for an asset such as helium.

When I look at comparable companies , and I apologise for using HE1 but there are similarities and believe we should be valued at their Market Cap £58m given what is on the table at this stage i.e 46p.

I'm very relaxed - I guess it helps that I have a good average but I have been a buyer all the way to 24p and see no issues reaching that again this side of Christmas; Obviously I believe in Rudyard.

Should be interesting. Quite lucky to get in at these levels - I have the slow turn around time from the assay lab to thank for that.

David & Bo can't sell any of their shares till April 2025. They have plenty of time to get the company to where they want it based on longer-term objectives.

Apologies to OfCat in advance for quoting someones else's tweet.

Source: The Masked Stock Trader@ProAIMTrader

F***ing hell. If it stays down here long enough for me to move money around, I'm buying more. Mad drop considering the Amsden was only 6% of the CPR.

1. Obviously, a higher grade would have been nice, from the Amsden, but at ever $1m/pre tax cash flow/year that would actually put them at higher revenues per well than Blue Star Helium who's State 16SSW was doing 285mcf/day raw gas at 1.9% He.

2. This suggests with the increasing He in the mud in the Charles that the seal trapping the He at depth is working if the 2.5% He+55% H in the Flathead hasn't moved upwards, so it gives me more confidence of commercial helium in the Charles.

3. Rudyard testing on Monday. Rudyard which had grades between 0.9-1.3% He and flow rates between 1150 mcf/d and 3000 mcf/d before. Getting crew and equipment for stimulation of Charles+Flathead 'as soon as possible'! Probably 2/3 weeks away?

4 I'd add to this that the Amsden was only ~6% of the CPR, so it was always a nice bonus if it had come in, but doesn't change how I look at the Ingomar project, where the key is what's going on at depth.

5.Plus, I don't think it would be surprising considering what David said in the analyst Teams meeting about the size of Ingomar's hydrogen grade if they come back from the hydrogen conference looking at strategic partnerships.

Officecat - I'm only going to address you once:

"@ andypaps hmmmm wasn't it you that introduced the myles tweet first to the bb yesterday? Got anything to say on that?"

I put a lot of information up that is interesting or gives POV from elsewhere. The tweet was more about the many opportunities on the horizon i.e results coming over the next few weeks. I expect everyone to do their own due diligence.

I am still very comfortable with this investment. Ideally the results would not have been released in the order that they have but interesting the share price is back to the shale issue - that is now the backstop without any further results -

None of my posts are wise after the event - I would argue that they are wise before the event. e.g. stating that Helix would have taken a load of information to Paris to discuss the hydrogen - two hours later a helix tweet shows such!

Rudyard has always been my backstop - see my other posts. I don't deramp my own shares or anyone elses shares here as I have respect for their positions but even without hindsight Amsden wasn't looking good based on information flow. Highlighting it would have made no difference.

I have no affiliation with anyone (except the wife!) and based on all information to date I'm confident both Rudyard and Ingomar will be commercial this is even before I talk about the hydrogen.

At 6% of total resource per the CPR (Competent's person report) the findings of Amsden were never going to be significant.

I would have been more shocked had this target been commercial. Any 6% fall in Bcf resource and resulting fall in value is more than tripled by the two additional pieces of information that have come to light since starting the project:

1) likely grade and volume at Rudyard appears to be in excess of the CPR

2) hydrogen being discovered with all it's potential.

I am very confident that helium will flow after acidisation based on all information to date. The process of acidisation is less of a risk for me than sorting out the shale issue we had a couple of months back.

In terms of the risk profile of Ingomar I always had the seals as the biggest risk by far. Helium was always going to be found at Ingomar but whether it would collect in a reservoir was over 50% of the risk as I saw it - hence I'm heartened to see in the RNS "The results are contrasting to the 2.5% helium identified in the underlying Flathead formation, the primary target in the Clink #1 well, implying an excellent seal".

Interestingly Amsden could still generate £1m per year per well in revenue. As stated this is not commercial if the only target producing. This is because the fixed costs of set up would outweigh the revenue. However if other targets can produced the fixed costs become such that "Amsden could generate useful additional cash-flow if produced alongside helium from the Flathead or Charles formations"

I've always said Rudyard is the backstop in terms of share price and defining my risk. An $80m NPV for Rudyard equates to 50p @1.5% concentration , or 30p @ 0.9%.

I wish I had more funds to allocate on weakness this morning.

Source : X (Twitter) Myles McNulty@MylesMcNulty

Increased long position in

@HelixExp

#HEX this morning. Multiple (possibly very positive) news items due over the next week or two, that have been loudly flagged by mgmt.

Volume and SP movement today so far suggest I'm not the only one thinking this!

Perhaps one would have expected the share price to drift as we await news. However I imagine that Helix's 55% hydrogen concentration was discussed between conference speakers and at dinner; could there possible be some buying originating from France?

Hydrogen experts will have a very good idea what type of system & potential Ingomar has as Helix would have taken Geological and Structural Maps, Reservoir Maps, Cross-Sectional Diagrams, Hydrogen Sampling and Test Results with Energy Level and Emission Data.

It's been a long time coming. Was always going to come good. Plenty of mileage left in this still.

Source: BBN@BigBiteNow

1. I think the market has forgotten that #HEX stated it would "test multiple formations from the bottom of the hole upwards" and "if initial results of a perforation are positive the Company will report gas composition to the market...before moving on to the next horizon."

2. Flathead was first and was the main target. It has tested to 2.5% helium and so HEX have issued an RNS for this. In doing so they've updated on progress on the other two formations. Charles would have been next but it needs stimulation to get the gas to flow to the surface.

3. So that leaves the Amsden formation which at the time of reporting on the Flathead positive perforation and gas composition results (as promised) has flowed but has yet to be fully tested. Hence why no gas composition could be reported today.

4. The most important thing is that the Flathead formation was the main target for this drill and delivered 2.5% helium. So then it comes down to the stimulation to get the formation flowing at commercial rates.

5. If they can do that then at 33ft and 2.5% it is a bigger outcome than the current scoping study which was based on 35ft and 1.5% helium. Achieve that and it doesn't matter what the Amsden, Charles or indeed hydrogen elements deliver.

6. So they each represent a bonus to the base case which is the Flathead being successfully stimulated. Stimulation in the region is not uncommon. #HEX's confidence is clearly high that they will hence why they think "We are clearly sat on a large scale commercial closure."

7. From where I am sitting it looks like very good risk-reward because the one formation during drilling that was questionable helium-wise was the Flathead. That is no longer the case. If one believes the stimulation succeeds then it is game on.

8. But as back up they also have two more formations + hydrogen and are fully funded to stimulate all the formations and so deliver a final result on the helium side of things. I would suggest some research on stimulation methods in the US drilling market is in order.

Comments after the DM interview and analyst call:

So #HEX thinks they've nailed (post low-cost stimulation) all 3 formations leading to better economics with Rudyard still to come. Fully funded for it all and they aren't worried about flow rates. That's a strong statement. Multiple updates expected prior to Christmas.

"I'm not worried about flow rate, flow rate isn't a problem." "Once we've got it flowing." - very confident! "fully funded" for stimulation and explains it's cheap and inexpensive+Amsden+Rudyard news very soon too.

Source: Myles McNulty@MylesMcNulty:

There was clearly a big misread by the majority of market participants yesterday at 7am. However, the combo of the presentation and the analyst call yesterday afternoon have (started to) open many more eyes to the very positive news..

I think this #HEX will be well into the 30s by market close next Friday. [I took the opportunity to re-enter yest