Member Info for andypaps

They were scheduled to as of last week. Maybe not getting the MRE finished before the event meant it was wise to pull-out.

There is a Stockbox Media live event today at 6 PM focusing on copper, featuring RMR and two other companies. I believe finding copper in significant commercial quantities is very important. When I look at our strategic partner, Stanvic Mining Sarl, I ask myself: what else are they doing in the DRC, and with whom, to see if there are any clues about how RMR could develop?

Interestingly, Stanvic Mining Sarl holds 30% of Kampemba Corporation SAS within the DRC, while Ivanhoe Mines holds 60% (via Ivanhoe DRC Holdings, which owns 100% of Kampemba Holdings Ltd, which in turn holds 60% of Kampemba Corporation SAS). DRC individuals hold the remaining 10%. According to Ivanhoe’s website, their broader strategy is to add copper resources to their portfolio. Kampemba Corporation SAS was established as a joint-venture exploration licence holder pursuing copper with Stanvic.

I think that if our grades and quantities are sufficient, Ivanhoe would be very interested. While the consensus has been that Alphamin would buy out RMR, I actually see scope for Ivanhoe Mines (a Canadian company with a market cap of around USD 15 billion) to acquire Alphamin (market cap of about USD 1 billion) and RMR together—if the MRE proves to be truly multi-commodity in nature and copper ends up representing a large portion of the resource estimate.

RMR is preparing its MRE under the Canadian Institute of Mining guidelines (CIM) and the output will be a NI 43-101 technical report. This has certainly led to the delay.

A MRE can be issued under many types of standards e.g. JORC (Australia). NI 43-101 (Canada), PERC (Europe). The NI-43-101is well understood by large international mining investors and analysts and requires a qualified person (QP) as opposed to a competent person (CP) under JORC to sign off the report.

The NI 43-101 was likely chosen for various reasons including that the NI 43-101 is generally regarded as more prescriptive and legally enforceable whereas JRC is more flexible and principles based. NI 43-101 reports tend to be more detailed, conservative and independently verified signalling technical credibility and data quality. RMR was formed from an RTO listed on the Canadian TSX Venture Exchange, and Alphamin has also reported under NI 43-101 so these have also likely played a role.

A QP has to personally verify all exploration data. Under JORC this step exists but is often less formalised as the CP can rely more on the company's internal quality systems and declare them sufficient if properly docked documented.

Under CIM a compliant database must be built & all historical data must be digitised and validated. JORC allows somewhat more flexibility here e.g. if previous work is deemed reliable the CP can reference it without fully rebuilding databases. Unlike JORC where results can be released in a short competent person statement, NI 43-101 requires a full technical report. This is likely to be 100 pages. RMR will release a summary to the market and put the full report on its website. It will take the market place 2 or 3 days to digest the granular detail so I wouldn’t expect the share price to settle for a while.

I also think that the NI 43-101 as a regulatory document has to be filed with AIM whereas a JORC doesn’t require filing, only that it meets ASX/LSE disclosure rules.

Big-kahuna was concerned about what the MRE (under JORC) did to the Empire Metals (EEE) share price as it came off considerably on release. In my view this is because EEE had seen a 10 fold increase since the start of the year and was valued at £400m without any revenue. RMR’s share price is basically where it started the year and is valued at £22m or so. Subsequently tin, copper, zinc & silver (all to form a substantial part of the MRE) are up by double digits.

This is a very important update. Not just because of the excellent news but because the Helix management is showing that it is proactive in looking after shareholder value, by this I mean commercially astute of what is going on and who ultimately we are competing with in terms of marketability and visibility of the company.

It is no coincident that Pulsar Helium produced a RNS on the 1st October about their He3 discovery. This is the company that Bo feels has been slow to “get things done”. We have Helium-3 concentration averaging greater than 10 ppb.

Let’s not forget (and I make no apologies in lifting some of Pulsar’s prior RNS’s text) NASA and the U.S. Government are actively funding lunar helium-3 extraction, with regolith concentrations estimated between 1.4 and 15 ppb, averaging around 4 ppb. Grants and early purchase agreements are supporting technologies for regolith heating, gas separation, and transport, reflecting helium-3's strategic importance. In this context, the significance of Helix’s Exploration discovery is clear, with terrestrial helium-3 levels now comparable to, and potentially exceeding, average concentrations found on the Moon, without the need for lunar excavation.

Helium-3 is exceedingly rare and valuable, commanding ~US$2,500 per litre in specialized markets. This discovery establishes a potential new terrestrial supply of this isotope.

Stanvic in Dec 2024 received one Warrant for every one Ordinary Share subscribed for. These warrants are exercisable at 0.50 pence per new Ordinary Share. At the time that was a 43 per cent premium to the price. The premium is now 56%. With a total of up to 1,200,000,000 Warrants (they can choose how many to exercise & when) if all the Warrants are exercised RMR will receive gross proceeds of £6.0 million. In my mind and I have little doubt, Stanvic will work with RMR and convert enough to get through the next phase of drilling as it is in their interest to get the resource as large as possible.

My view is the longer it takes the better the results though RMR management do need a lesson in expectation management. The mention of silver as also forming an integral part was a good surprise: "Tin, copper, zinc and silver are all heavily represented in the Mont Agoma discovery and are expected to form an integral part of the mineral resource going forward."

It looks like the eventual resource after the next set of drilling will be huge given than management intends to " develop the project into a compelling tin and copper play for the coming decades." Alphamin produced on average 14,800 tonnes per annum 2022-2024.

i can see my figures didn't go down too well with some people. let's not forget mine was a couple of hours work as opposed to the likely 200 hours plus and the £80k fee that msa group will be charging. it gave me comfort that this will be a good investment, even not on initial mre it will be on further drilling. edzi talked about "this and that" both in terms of prices & costs but as i was working on "back of the *** packet" calculations it made no sense to go to the nth degree. my prices for the metals was from the company interviews and checks on google to make sure still relevant.

my greatest comfort is actually derived from the stanvic strategic investment at £0.0035 in dec 24. a specialist long-term investor operating in the drc mining commodity sector. also the choice of the msa group to document the mre in an ni 43-101 technical report bodes well, as they worked on alphamin's mres and i'm hoping the good historical data has the potential for them to be more "adventurous" in their findings which is important as they are also going to make an assessment of the prospects for eventual economic extraction.

there is a possibility that the mre doesn't come out in september as that "assessment of the prospects for eventual economic extraction" relies on more than just the assays. it doesn't matter to me when the mre comes. the stuff is in the ground and won't change. china's commodity policy is actually to buy and hold without mining, knowing the value of reserves tends to go one way.

there is still a chance of an upside surprise in the mre as paul barret ceo commented in the 02 june 25 rns ".....what we believe is a large-scale, high-value copper-tin-zinc-silver system."

I hear you Figes but I don't think the Orphan period of the Lassonde Curve (it provides valuable insights into the stages of the mining life cycle and the potential value creation at each phase) comes into play here. We stay at the speculation then onto the discovery part of the curve as there is no intention by RMR to construct the mine.

In case anyone is interested I've been feeding the assays into a spreadsheet based on strike/width/depth/grades/density. The MRE is likely to define Inferred , indicated & measured resources. My estimates are indicated/measured.

My worse case scenario sees

• Volume = 600 × 100 × 30 = 1,800,000 m³.

• Tonnes = 1,800,000 × 2.8 = 5,040,000 t.

• Contained metal:

o Sn = 5,040,000 × 0.83% = 5,040,000 × 0.0083 = 41,832 t Sn

o Cu = 5,040,000 × 1.70% = 5,040,000 × 0.017 = 85,680 t Cu

o Zn = 5,040,000 × 2.9% = 5,040,000 × 0.029 = 146,160 t Zn

Sn 41,832 x $34,000= $1,422,288,000

Cu 85,680 x $10,000 = $856,800,000

Zn 146,160 x $2985 = $436,287,600

Total $2.715 billion in-situ, converted at 1.35 to GBP = £2.01 billion

3% valuation of in-situ(we could argue all day about the % applied) based on proximity to Alphamin and interest in from Stanvic and IRH equates to £60m however from my estimations this resource will grow by 175% if Mont Agoma East doubles our resource as I believe the initial MRE will account for 80% of Monta Goma, 45% of Kalayi , and 0% of Mont Agoma East.

Due to the above assumption this would scale by a factor of 1.75 when everything else is drilled out (allowing for less scaling up of Cu and Zn (just 0.8) as assuming none at Kalayi). This would give indicated/measured figures of

Sn115,038t

Cu 154,224t

Zn 263,088t

Applying pricing and FX above equates to £138m.

Stanvic paid £0.0035 and they were not aware on Mont Agoma East at the time. With a present valuation of £20m I can't see how this does not double on the MRE . We will get Dilution of up to 30% to complete the drilling which sets up the sale. This means £138m becomes £97m, still a near 5 fold increase

The most surprising thing is how valuable Copper and Zinc are in Situ, and how this improves the desirability of the project.

Keith Spickelmier J.D. (Independent Non-Executive Chairman of the Board) , in his profile piece on Helix states ".... it is focused on production at its Rudyard Project in northern Montana. It has four production wells targeting up to 236 feet Helium / Nitrogen gas in the Souris and Red River formations. "

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/HHEXF?qsearchterm=hhexf

As he talks about 4 production wells, Inez, as we knew all along must be commercial and hence the South dome is proven resulting in a soon to be reserves update.

Also I think as the financial year end for Helix is 30th September it makes it quite clean to have all production/revenue falling into the new year as we are so close to that date!

I had a top-up of 1.3m shares though it is showing as a sell.

I emailed Adam Standiford on 13th August enquiring when he saw the workover rig being available for transportation to Inez as I assumed he would be supplying the rig. I also thanked him on behalf of shareholders for his expertise and support in working alongside Hex. I wasn’t really expecting an answer. However yesterday just before the London market closed (but the same day we got the RNS workover rig news) I got an email saying that he can’t reveal any information given the nature of the public status of the company.

However he did let me know that he was currently adding to his substantial position of Helix on the OTC in the US. He also said that he had been exploring in the Montana helium space for 13 years and Helix is the real deal. He said that a lot of fly-by-night juniors have talked a big game about their ability to achieve helium production but nobody has followed through like Helix. He said Helix don’t lie; they didn’t obfuscate and that they just get things done. He thanked me for my email and said he would continue to work hard for all of us shareholders.

Interesting Silver got used at least twice in this RNS. The maiden MRE will be bigger than expected and that is likely without MADD030/030A being included in the MRE "it is assumed that the tin from drill hole MADD030/030A will not be included in the initial MRE until the additional holes are drilled to the southeast."

This is because 3 further holes are planned to scpe out this section which could double the size at Mont Agoma: "Three holes are planned to test this model, and should these holes intersect the new tin zone as planned, then this would indicate that the new zone has the potential to double the mineralised strike at Mont Agoma"

There was a message in the Telegram group at 11.16am to get buying soon as there will be £440k incoming today. Likley to be broken down, and the source is the same guy that had one of his friends buying £250k last week so absolutely reliable. It's worth joing the group just to see that trail of messages!

Hi Pied Piper,

" At least we're agree the Andypaps numbers were just plain wrong! " No they were not. I've reconciled the differences, mainly it's the price $/MMBtu. The ICP is a weighted average of many international prices , formulated with a constant and a slope uplift. I came in about $11/MMBtu (we are higher than domestic which ranges $6-$9) and JT21 had $8.5/MMBtu. When my calculation were done prices were higher as prices in the last two weeks have fallen based on increased OPEC production. I have also taken account of the Production Sharing Contract and an 11% discount factor.

Oil prices and hence the ICP benchmark will be volatile over a 10 year time-frame - The only thing we can be sure of is that Empyrean is still very undervalued.

A summary of my detailed 14:36 post from Saturday 25th July which factored in all valuation drivers: gas price, resource size, PSC terms, capex/opex, taxation, risk discounting for 2C resources, and appropriate financial discounting. Read that post if you want the reasoning behind my figures.

1. Gross Resource and Revenue Estimates

• Total recoverable 2C resource (gross): 376 Bcf

• Empyrean’s 8.5% share: 31.96 Bcf

• Assumed gas price: US$11.95/MMBtu (based on June 25 ICP average)

• Gross field revenue: US$4.49 billion

• Empyrean's pre-PSC revenue share: US$382 million

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2. Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Adjustment

• Typical Indonesian PSC structure:

o Cost recovery cap: 70% of gross revenue

o Profit gas split: 65% to government, 35% to contractors

• Empyrean’s adjusted share post-PSC: 6.29% of gross = US$282 million

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3. Cost and Tax Assumptions

• Opex: US$1.00/Mcf → US$31.96 million

• CapEx (net): US$2.00/Mcf → US$63.9 million (may be conservative due to pipeline support from PLN)

• Total project costs: US$95.9 million

• Net revenue post-costs: US$282m – US$95.9m = US$186.1 million

• Indonesian tax (22%): US$40.9 million

• Net after-tax cashflow: US$145.2 million

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4. Risk Adjustment

• Contingent resource status (2C) with GSA signed, pre-FID

• Industry-standard risk factor for this stage: 85%

• Risk-adjusted value: US$123.4 million

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5. Discounting to Present Value

• Production window: 2027–2036 (10 years; GSA to Jan 2037)

• Annual average cash flow: US$12.34 million

• Discount rate (pre-FID SE Asia standard): 11%

• Net Present Value (NPV): US$80.67 million

________________________________________

6. Valuation Per Share

• GBP conversion (rate: 1.343): £60.06 million

• Shares in issue (post-raise): 5,719,672,441

• Value per share: 1.05p

• Current share price (as of Friday): 0.125p

• Implied upside: 8.4x

In my view this is what a buyer will pay now based on a Jan 2027 production date.

This is my third re-visit on my valuation calculation and my most detailed. I won’t be doing another as I don’t see how I can improve on it .

Gross Revenue Estimate: Total recoverable volume (2C): 376 Bcf (gross to both Conrad & Empyrean) - Empyrean’s stake: 8.5% = 31.96 Bcf

Gross revenue = 376 Bcf × US$11.95 /MMBtu (this is my price calculation based on the June 25 average when I convert ICP into Gas Price per MMBtu) = US$4.49 billion.

Empyrean’s 8.5% share = US$382 million in revenue. This is a gross revenue number before any costs, taxes, or production sharing contract (PSC) terms.

I ignored the PSC on my last calculation but have found sufficient information since to get a typical structure in Indonesia where:

Operators recover capital and operating costs and then profit gas is split between the government and contractors: The RNS stated that the terms of the GSA with PLN EPI are confidential but they seemed to have done deals on this structure in the past.

Typical structure: Cost recovery cap: 70% of gross revenue

Remaining 30% = Profit Gas - Profit gas split 65% to government, 35% to contractor

Contractor’s share includes Empyrean's 8.5% stake within JV group

So I calculated Empyrean is entitled to 6.29% of gross revenue after the PSC which is $282 million as opposed to $382m before the PSC.

Now estimating life-of-project costs and taxes I found these are common upstream metrics in Asia for gas projects:

Operating cost (Opex) - $1.00/Mcf = $31.96 million for Empyrean

Development CapEx (net) - $2.00/Mcf = $63.9 million

Total cost = $95.9 million

Net revenue post-costs: $282 – $95.9m = $186.1 million

Tax (Indonesia has been 22% since 2022) $40.9 million

As per the RNS CapEx is reduced thanks to PLN building the pipeline so I may be a touch high on the development costs. Irrespective after tax net cash = $145.2m

Because Mako’s gas is still classified as 2C Contingent Resources and not yet booked as 2P Reserves, the industry typically applies a risk factor and based on a 2C resource in a GSA-signed, pre-FID asset with market access a very fair risk factor is 85% leading to $123.4 m

Now discounting the cashflows to present day assuming production spans 10 years 2027–2036 (as contract covers to Jan 2037 so we don’t get a full year in 2037 and it may take till Jan 27 to start), therefore average cash flow = $123.4m / 10 years = $12.34m per year

And then applying a 11% discount rate (as Wood Mackenzie – global energy research group typically uses an 11% average for pre-FID SE Asian gas projects) equates to a NPV of $80.67m.

Converting to GBP based on Friday’s closing exchange rate 1.343 = £60.06 million.

With shares in issue after recent fund raiser totalling 5,719,672,441 the value per share based on £60.06m is 1.05p. Closing price Friday 0.125p so there is an upside of x 8.4. In my view this is what a buyer will pay now based on a Jan 2027 production date.

Eddyc22,

Thanks for redirecting the Medjed question. I've had a look now. This is my take:

EME's share price has been depressed due to the prior duster and potentially the arrears. There is no public information on what the arrears are but it will be based on 8.5% of costs incurred. So knows how the ledger looks. Large arrears, depending on the T&Cs can lead to penalties or even potentially dilution of the stake.

My take is that Conrad would prefer negotiations over enforcement as they would be keen to protect JV stability & the timeline with the Mako development signed off; enforcing default could delay any further approvals (if needed) and disrupt project momentum of the actual pipelines.

If needed negotiating allows Empyrean to settle arrears in cash or via restructuring (bringing in a farm in partner), thus preserving their 8.5% interest and maintaining a cooperative JV atmosphere. Any news of a farm-in or new financing partner for Empyrean signals resolution. The retail offer & Fundraise (£600k) on 1st May were likely to have been partly done to create a cash buffer to pay Conrad if there was any threat to their stake/JV (as they would have been aware the grand prize was close).

As I said I have no idea what costs if any are still in arrears but Conrad will be comfortable now knowing that EME will not have a going concern issue given the gas sale agreement. I can't imagine that they would have owed more than £250k otherwise I would have expected more on the default action. Conrad (and EME of course) are in a completely different headspace than in May (before the gas agreement was signed); everyone knows they will get paid as everyone will be flushed. Even in a distressed sale I can't see the 8.5% being offloaded for less than £20m. Let's not forget the chairman report page 7 of the filed accounts "A successful sell down of our 8.5% interest in the Duyung PSC will enable the Company to reset and move forward with its

exploration objectives " . So they are looking to offload and Conrad will be comfortable with that

Calculations Updated:

Empyrean’s stake 8.5%

Gas volume (net to EME) 21,000,000 MMBtu

Gas sale price $8.00/MMBtu (domestic)

Cost per MMBtu $1.75

Netback (profit/MMBtu) $8.00 – $1.75 = $6.25

Total net profit 21M × $6.25 = $131,250,000

Annual cashflow (11 years) $131.25M / 11 = $11,931,818

Discount rate 8%

Project life 11 years

Annuity factor (8%, 11 yrs) 7.138

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NPV Calculation

NPV=11,931,818×7.138≈$85.14 million (USD)NPV = 11,931,818 \times 7.138 ≈ \boxed{\$85.14 \text{ million (USD)}}NPV=11,931,818×7.138≈$85.14 million (USD)

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NPV Result

With $1.75/MMBtu costs, $8/MMBtu gas price, and 8% discount rate,

Empyrean’s 8.5% stake in Mako Gas Field is worth approximately:

$85.1 million USD NPV convert at 1.344 = Addition to net assets of £63.3 million

It's funny how people are concerned about a raise that isn't coming at £500k or £600k when they are sitting on £131m of net profit over the cycle or an NPV of £63.3million. Any raise would be immaterial and added to net asset value.

The last set of filed accounts at Companies House (see page 7 - the Chairman's statement) makes it clear that the company want to sell the stake in the Mako gas field. This means a quick re-rate to fair value at least 0.5p.

"A successful sell down of our 8.5% interest in the Duyung PSC will enable the Company to reset and move forward with its exploration objectives..."

→ When they sell their 8.5% stake in the project successfully, the company will have the money it needs to refocus on it's other advanced exploration projects.