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Oldapache,

I thought It's been referred to as $4m revenue in interview(s).

Their RNS from 12th December said “Rudyard field can support multiple production wells on structure with each well having the potential to produce pre-tax cashflow of circa $4.0 million per year and drain a large area over a sustained period”

In my profession pre-tax cash flow has always meant after deducting operating costs (this will include royalties), capital expenditures, and possibly interest (though there is no loan finance here so not relevant) but before corporation tax. It reflects actual cash generated by the business available to pay taxes, reinvest, or distribute.

The confusion arises as this $4m per well has been called different things at different times in interviews. The RNS is the first time (only time??) it appeared in a RNS so I would say this is what should have set the benchmark irrespective if the language hasn't been consistent. It's a material figure and in my view it's not one they should be getting wrong in RNS's!

A close above 22p would be an all-time high for Helix in terms of market capitalisation (MC). The 28p close on 12th July 2024 represented a MC of £34.538m based on the 123,350,000 in issue at the time.

A 22.1p close would make the MC £34.690m based on 156,970,000 shares now in issue.

Ihavenoclue,

My 2 billion cubic feet wasn't clear, it wasn't meant to be just pure reserves but both reserves and contingent resources. A proportion of the contigent resources here will convert to reserves basically everytime a well is drilled successfully, however due to the excellent results so far the threshold between the two types of resources will in my eyes be semantics. The Hannan and Partners research note (Nov 2024) had the Rudyard element valued at 37p unrisked if only 598mcf were classified as reserves. I don't know what the split will when announced in June but it does look like any contingent resource will eventually become reserves.

Helix’s interim results are due to be published around the 25th June (it was 25th June in 2024 and AIM rules need the interim results to be published by 30th June at the very latest). I’m sure the Rudyard reserve update will be completed and RNS’d before the interim results so it can be part of the Chairman’s statement; this is how it was in 2024 when the Rudyard acquisition was RNS’d 5 days before the interim results and highlighted in the Chairman’s statement. The interesting part of the statement said “Our recent acquisition of Rudyard represents an important opportunity for Helix Exploration. It is a proven helium discovery with 480 million cubic feet of CONTINGENT RESOURCES that have an in-situ value of >$250m”

(Note : CONTINGENT RESOURCES are those quantities of helium estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations by application of development projects, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable owing to one or more contingencies.)

The biggest driver of the Share price will be the amount of Contingent resource that has been added and converted to Reserves. Without a doubt we will hit 30p in June if we get a reserves figure of at least 2 billion cubic feet.

Stanvic Mining SARL ("Stanvic") as a near 20% investor will be driving the timing of this maiden MRE work. Paul Barret did focus in on August so I agree with Edzi that this is a material change in the timetable as now we are looking at the end of June.

Stanvic won't want the price to drift, but more importantly to start to build interest and an initial lower MRE in June with continuing upgrades for them (and us) is more beneficail to drive interest.

Just following on from Tiburn comments re. HEX assumptions Rudyard in April, slide 6. The NPV calculate by Helix in house NPV8 equating to 75p per share was based on confirmed discovered Recoverable Reserves of 355 Million cubic feet helium.

We know based on the Linda results and the Texaco 1970s report this could be multiple times higher. This is why the updated reserves report will be so important which I think comes in before the end of June.

I don't think it is take-over related. David Minchin would have been behind this. He did the same with Helium One when CEO. They are still listed on OTCQB Venture Market under the symbol HLOGF.

Though there is no guarantee, you would expect the dual listing to support share price appreciation over time due to increased demand and visibility. However, any impact on the price depends on the usual broader market sentiment, news flow, and company fundamentals, all of which are strong and getting better.

The share price on OTCQB will typically mirror the AIM price adjusted for exchange rates and trading conditions. Arbitrage tends to keep the two prices aligned, but minor differences can exist due to liquidity and trading hours.

(Continued 2 of 2)

If you need some more comfort as to what Rudyard alone can do to the share price I would look at the Helix investor presentation from March 2024 (page 12) as it has a very interesting slide showing production rates and market valuations of North American Helium, New Era Helium, and Royal Helium. If you extrapolate from them you will find that 48 Mcf/yr gives a Market capitalisation that equates to £1.48 per share. I quote 48 Mcf/yr as the used Xebec Pressure Swing Adsorption Helium Processing Plant acquired in Dec 24 previously produced this.

I am heavily invested here. I have done my due diligence to the extent I only hold two shares in my SIPP and ISAs and this is my majority holding. I know I could have traded this and got a better average but potentially I could have also have missed the boat. This is a retirement hold for me in the sense I believe I’ll bring my retirement massively forward within the year.

It’s been a year since I first started buying at 10.2p and have been a buyer all the way up to 24.5p hence I’m holding at an average of 17.2p. I have never sold a share.

My conviction was based on the Oak security note 20th June 2024 which looked mainly at Rudyard giving it a valuation of 55p (with Ingomar it went to 93p). I reworked the Oak valuation for Rudyard at the time giving me my minimal valuation target of 27p on production. This was a valuation based on their 572 mmcf total resource volume of helium within Rudyard. I felt anything under 27p on production was where I would give consideration to putting together a consortium to buy it based on ROI etc. I could not see how if the project reached fruition it would not be trading to at least 27p.

The resource now at Rudyard looks a lot bigger than then the original Oaks security valuation. If the volume of helium on the updated CPR comes in at 2.29 bcf (4 fold increase) then Oak would give it a valuation of £1.72 (not £2.20 as I’ve allowed for the increase in shares issued since June 2024 which have risen from 122.8m to 156.97m) and my very comfortable valuation which would nevertheless attract take-over interest would be 84.5 pence.

The Linda#1 well was the game changer for the Rudyard valuation as testing demonstrated excellent deliverability, flowing 3,850 Mcf/d of raw gas on a 40/64" with an absolute open flow of over 4,700 Mcf/d. The Darwin well rates were sustained at 2,750 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d) of raw gas at 40/64" choke with absolute Open Flow calculated to be over 4,500 Mcf/d.

This is important as the sustained production rates of the two wells drilled so far is so much higher than the base modelled case i.e. the production rate of 2,000 Mcf/day raw gas, with a helium sales price of $500/Mcf. This gives a wide degree of flexibility as if helium prices fell to $420/Mcf, the Linda well for example could increase production to 2,380 Mcf (as opposed to 2,000) to maintain a pre-tax cashflow of $4,000,000 per year.

The highest the share price has been was 29p intra day 15th July 2024. Again I think we will see it hitting all-time highs going into that date given what is going on. I would expect us to be valued where HE1 is now; £50m. I see a lot of discussion about HE1 and it’s valuation. It’s balance sheet shows £48m in net assets of which £31m is the capitalisation of costs associated with the Tanzania exploration.

He1 also has unused tax losses of approximately $7.5m to carry forward and set against future profits. This has not been recognised as an asset yet but it will be brought into assets once there is certainty regarding the level and timing of future profits. My point is I feel our share price is now quite rightly being supported by “coming into production” and HE1 (though production via Galatica-Pegasus project will be soon) has been supported by “time since incorporation” i.e accumulation of tax losses and exploration s

Let’s not forget Stanvic acquired 19.76% of Rome Resources at 0.35p in December 2024, still a 15% premium to where we are now. They were also entitled to warrants at 0.5p for each share subscribed, which is still a 64% premium from today.

Stanvic’s involvement not only accelerated and enlarged the drilling scheduled but also ensures that any take-over attempts from other 3rd parties will be very fairly valued i.e. we can’t be acquired on the cheap and that day is getting closer with these results.

Seems to be some confusion. There are just over 6 billion shares. Each share based on today's closing price is not even a penny but 27.5% of a penny (or nearly 3 tenths of a penny).

The current valuation is £16.5m. I don't know what the guy on Twitter said but it would have to be 2.5 pence as this would give a market capitilization of £150m. Very possible. This is a 9 fold increase.

For it to be valued at 25 pence , the market cap would be £1.5 billion. Actually on reflection he may have said 25p as Alphamin has a valuation of £1.2 billion I believe, so only slightly larger. I would be happy with 2.5p but realistically depending on what is found at deeper depths it could get to £200m without going into production i.e 3.3p per share or a 12 fold increase from these levels.

The article from 10th as highlighted by Bugsy

Shares in Alphamin Resources Corp have risen by over 35% over the past few days – not a bad effort in the context of the general market turmoil and boiling trade wars that have driven almost everything else down.

But there’s a very specific reason in Alphamin’s case.

The company has a major tin producing operation in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a region much troubled by local conflict, but in which it appears peace is once again breaking out.

This development comes as the US is beginning to signal at a high level its increasing interest in the DRC as a jurisdiction.

Alphamin’s Bisie mine is the second highest grading tin mine in the world. It has just initiated a resumption of mining operations, following a temporary hiatus. Rebels had peacefully left the area earlier, ahead of planned talks in Doha.

Taking a keen interest in the re-start was a US envoy visiting Kinsasha on a mission from President Trump.

It’s development that’s also had a positive impact on the share price of Rome Resources.

Rome isn’t yet in production in eastern Congo, but it has established the presence of significant tin and copper at its extensive license holdings, all of which are close to Alphamin. Indeed, some of the Rome Resources team used to work at Alphamin, and they know the territory well.

Rome too, had slowed operations in the area in the wake of the eruption of the civil strife. But the expectation is that it can now get down to work once more.

View from Vox

The DRC isn’t the easiest of jurisdictions to operate in, but historically it has been one of the richest in Africa. Rome’s grades at Bisie North have been attractive to say the least. Will the company now attract in a buyer? That’s the great imponderable, but the renewal of peace in the area will certainly be a help to any negotiations.

Hexxyman,

I suggest you put everything you have into it now and then sell 31st March, then send BO and DM an email with a laughter emoji on 1st April 25

I think you'll see a nice run up to this date. This is when Bo & DM are first allowed to sell any shares. They have been locked-in since IPO. They will ensure that things move at a pace to maximise share price around that date so as to keep their options open.

This is Zac Phillips (of Oak Securities) from July talking about Rudyard. Listening again today puts a lot more flavour on this morning's RNS. He put together the research note of Helix's website that talks about the 93p target.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ_pckAvAjc

"more back of the *** packet calcs that never work on aim! you will never seen a npv relate to a sp on an junior explorer on aim so pretty pointless exercise "

This is why I discounted it by a further 32% (tends to be a fair figure to get fair valuation). The further a company's valuation gets from the NPV (a form of future net assets) the more likely it is to be bought out; economics 101.

I like to think I've been a consistent poster in my analysis over the months. I’ve revised my valuation figures based on today’s news for Rudyard. I’ve always had 0.9% helium concentration as my go to in working out valuation. On revision to 1.1% and with targets being positioned higher than anticipated, indicating a larger-than-expected structural closure I now have an NPV of £85m based on today’s announcement and past RNS's (revised up from £69m). Even if I allow for a 32% discount on NPV I have a fair value of 46p. This is without anything further happening.

I’ve always said Rudyard was my backstop, it has turned out to be a lot more than a backstop with further news to come. My calculations estimate that Helix still have £3.32 million (+/- £250k) in the bank. There will not be a raise in the next year (and then likely never given production).

The trust that was lost my DM’s debacle to an extent is now being gained and that element will also be reflected in the share price.

In my mind it is beyond doubt Ingomar will prove commercial. The helium and hydrogen is not going anywhere. Even if they have to drill another well with the added advantage of the knowledge gained from existing operations at Ingomar it will eventually be commercial. With £3m in the bank it is worth doing, and it will be done if acidization/stimulation do not work.

Rudyard has completed derisked the share both in terms of financing and having evidence that the board can deliver.

My valuation above of 47p equates to a market cap of £58m; cheap, and strangely is the same as HE1, where some would argue that they have actually achieved less.

I've never seen such commotion on a BB, especially as it's been 4 months since suspension.

There is absolutely nothing to worry about in the grand scheme of things. This is definitely coming back from suspension and my best guess would be within 2 weeks. If a gun was held to my head and I had to state the main issue here , speculatively I would suggest it centres on accounting aspects, not just the obvious "losing access to bank accounts/statements". but more about a true & fair view. I don't want to say anymore than that as I said it is speculation.

I see absolutely no issue with any going concern aspects and the share in my view will be back better & stronger with a brighter future.