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TLW nice post.
I hadn’t been on the forum for about a week. Came on today to read the usual rampy rubbish I’ve seen for the last 2 years almost.
Totally agree with you. SNG001 interferon beta does work (that’s the frustrating thing about this). So it’s worth holding whatever invested you have. I am holding mine but NOT adding to it. I have 45k shares, I will only add to this if the price drop to below 10p. In which case I will probably put £5-10k in and leave it, with the hope that in a decade we could be over £2 again.
It’s a long term hold because of the science.
Maybe one day the drug can become commercial.
It’s worth holding for that and also worth adding if the price goes very low when the shares get further diluted from another fund raise in the future.
Take care and thanks for that message.
I feel like something magical is going to happen to the company this week, so I put 10 bags in.
Polygon are buying, this must mean something special is about to happen?
Marsden has been silent since the results were announced, that must mean something special is coming, surely? Only a deeply confident CEO would remain silent after such a catastrophe.
10 bags at 25p.
This is gonna blow any day soon.
I have fantastic faith that this week we will get deep dive data and then apply for EUA.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
How dumb does that sound?
Despite 90% loss of SP, the ‘respected members’ keep on with this utter sh11te every single day.
Size, I hope I’m wrong.
I’ve said it so many times on here before. If I’m wrong then I will be delighted for everyone to laugh at me, as I will become very rich by being wrong.
The fact is that Marsden et co have had 20 years to bring Synairgen to market. They’ve failed in that time.
Even at the height of the pandemic they failed their trial. Let’s face it, they’re just not very good at what they do (otherwise they would have a drug out by now). With that in consideration, this is how I get my 3% figure.
I believe deep dive data and ACTIV2 P2 data will show some really good things. But then I also believe (quite strongly) that Synairgen will be content to just write about how the data showed good things, then not actually apply for FDA approval. We’ve seen how this company operate, they aren’t a commercial company, they’re a research company and there is no urgency to press ahead, there never has been.
You might be right, maybe no fund raise and instead another P3 platform trial. In which case it’s similar to ACTIV2 P3 scenario, we wait another 18-24 months to see the results of that trial and then maybe get approved after that.
Either way, whatever option there is (unless Synairgen do the unthinkable and actually apply for EUA from the deep dive and ACTIV2 data), there is going to be a wait for many years for this to come good.
Wigster, BINGO.
I’d say that the chances of Synairgen finding something in the deep dive data of SPRINTER (and also from ACTIV2 P2) are very high.
But exactly what you said, Synairgen then have to actually apply for EUA.
So far, I have seen absolutely nothing from this company that shows they know how to take a product to market. When I look at NRX pharma, they are super quick to file for EUA (even after rejected the first time) and the board are friendly to share holders. So I have very low faith in Synairgen applying for EUA after the deep dive data. But I will be happy to be proven wrong.
In fact, the whole time I’ve wanted to be proven wrong. Being proven wrong would make me a lot of money from this stock. I’d love it if the Synairgen rampers would turn out to be correct and could write about how they laugh at me and how everyone on Reddit laughs at me. If that happened, I’d make lots of money. Instead, we have the entire stock market laughing at us.
Id say it’s most likely we need to do another fund raise again, followed by a new P3 trial (which will take years in total) and when the shares are diluted again, can snap up 5k’s worth at 9p a share.
If you have £5k to spend and forget about, throw it in SNG when the shares are diluted and you can pick them up for 9-10 per share. Get yourself 50-60 thousand shares for that price and leave it, total gamble, but worth a shot.
Why would sentiment return here?
We failed our trial. We don’t have a product on the market and it’s unlikely we will have a product on the market for many years to come.
Four possibilities:
1. 3% chance. Synairgen find something in the deep dive data and ACTIV2 data and then apply for EUA which gets approved.
2. 17% chance, We wait 18 to 24 months for ACTIV2 to start again and complete, paving the way for approval.
3. 60% chance, Synairgen need to do another fund raise and the SP collapses again, in order to do another P3 trial to bring the product to market. Again, like SPRINTER it will be designed by the same company, therefore risk of failure once again is probably quite high. This is the company that haven’t been able to get this drug to market in 20 years, despite the colossal need for the drug during a ‘once in a lifetime’ pandemic.
4. 20% chance, Synairgen never get this drug to market and remain a research company until they fizzle out in ten or so years when Marsden retires, happy with his 200k a year salary.
So there a 3% chance we get an EUA in the next year. Based on that 3% chance of likelihood, this could be a gamble if you don’t mind forgetting about your money. Certainly not an investment though.
This share is bloody good for a trader who wants to make 10% each week, maybe more.
Either forget about your money for a few years and forget about this company, or take it on the chin and start trading the stock with the big fluctuations going on at this pathetic price.
Either way, just move on and live your life.
Sharedealer, what do you mean ‘when this does come good’?
If I’m honest, I don’t think some people realise what has happened here, some are still in total denial.
This is like a premiership football team that has been relegated to division 2. But the manager refuses to talk and the club refuses to sack the manager. Instead the fans are saying ‘wait until our manager gets us back in the prem’. Yeah sure, it might happen, but firstly it’s unlikely with a sh11t manager and secondly it will take years, even if the manager does pull it out the bag.
Doc. For once we are in total agreement.
The only reasoning I see for Marsden not showing his face is that he is waiting for the deep dive analysis before he talks. He’s praying that he will be able to announce something positive in there to save face.
It’s still very bad form though. A decent CEO would come out and share an interview or a statement, then explaining what happens next. It’s called common courtesy, to explain the company’s next moves (ie, waiting for the deep dive data and then announce what they find, then if it’s good they will still apply for EUA).
The fact he’s done a disappearing act, or is hiding away is very unprofessional for a CEO on a high six figure salary.
Tommy thanks, those real world examples give me a bit of faith that this isn’t totally dead in the water.
If the deep dive data for SPRINTER is good, they could combine with ACTIV2 P2 and also SG016 and apply for EUA. This is similar to what NRX have been doing, after their initial application was rejected.
My concern with this (and it is a big concern) is the Synairgen team themselves. I don’t know if they have the ability, knowledge or grit to be able to apply for approval, or if they are planning this, maybe we’d be talking years instead of months.
Does anyone know of another drug which failed its P3 primary endpoints to be approved and in production?
It appears that even a massive failure by the company still hasn’t dampened the optimistic spirits of bullish members on this discussion board.
It would be great if Synairgen could combine P2 and P3 data (with ACTIV2 data) together and submit for EUA.
Anyone know of any other drugs where this has been done before?
It’s all dead in the water. COPD would require another P2 and P3 trial which would cost tens of millions. They don’t have the money. They’d either have to do a fund raise again, or get bought out. Seriously, after the last debacle, who is going to put up the funds to finance a P3 trial organised by Synairgen again?
If the company announced they want to do a two year P3 trial in to COPD for £20 million, is this really going to get anyone excited? Is anyone going to bother with them, given the embarrassment of their last trial?
In this case I hope brand is 100% correct and the company can combine P2 and P3 results.
If it was any other company I would have faith they would do this. But my faith is so low in the team at Synairgen, I just don’t think they’re on the ball at all.
Look how long it takes them to do anything. Be honest, is this the company that is scrambling quickly to try and get results and then get a drug out there to save lives? We heard Marsden in interview on WebMD and he was so slow, ‘If our product works and covid is still around then maybe we will be able to help’. Those were his words, we all remember them.
I’d love to be wrong and would love for SNG to apply for EUA, the world needs it. But I can’t see the company being on the ball fast enough to make this happen, they’re so slow at doing anything. We got in vitro results for delta and omicron AFTER the P3 results. Those in vitro tests take a few days to conduct in a lab, but took us about 4 months to release.
I don’t know what to think, the more I look at Marsden and his casual attitude = the more it just looks like we’ve been strung along.
We can speculate all we want. The bottom line is that Synairgen failed. We don’t have the ability like Lilly to be able to get EUA on P2 data, so currently there is no route to approval other than ACTIV2.
We don’t know when ACTIV2 is going to restart again, but fortunately (for now at least) we are the only drug on the program.
Our only hope to regain £1-£2 per share is if we get bought out. Maybe (again just a guess) Polygon is buying 29% because they are taking the gamble that if we give impressive deep dive data for SPRINTER, there could be a takeover bid by big pharma. Maybe 200-400 million, equating £1-£2 SP value. Presumably Polygon could accept £2 per share and make a profit on that and be happy.
But this is pure speculation and so far none of our speculation on this board has amounted to anything other than a 90% drop in SP.
Polygon made the wrong investment, just like we did. Our error was that we saw the drug and invested, as opposed to looking at the COMPANY itself. The company managed to ruin their own trial and doom themselves to oblivion. I try not to look back and say ‘how could they be so incompetent’, as what’s done is done now.
It’s all pure speculation, we are sitting on a failed drug right now, Synairgen are just a research company now and will never be any more than that.
Polygon probably see this SP as a way of taking a gamble. They’ve written off their investment (as should we) and will keep on buying cheaply with intention to just hold for ACTIV2 and if that doesn’t work then potentially the next five to ten years for a takeover.
I don’t think people on here actually realise that our only chance now is ACTIV2 (a slim chance). If not, it’s a five to ten year wilderness wait.
I don’t think some people on here seem to realise.
Yes we need treatments.
But NO, SNG001 will NOT be one of those treatments.
Everything hinged on the P3 trial. We can not get approval with our utter sh11te P3 trial results.
If you want to invest in covid treatments, probably best to find another company to invest in. This companies lead asset is dead in the water as far as covid goes, with ONE exception and that is ACTIV2, which of course has been temporarily halted.
I think it’s important not to lead anyone in to believing something is happening here.
For two years investors were lead to believe this could be a miracle drug. It could indeed be a miracle drug. But the company fudged everything up and don’t have the ability to get this drug to market. Best not to get people’s hopes up and especially not for people to end up throwing good money after bad.
Are we still getting snippets of news telling us that interferon works?
I guess if we hold on to our shares, eventually we might get bought out if ACTIV2 turns good.
If ACTIV2 doesn’t go ahead, then maybe in five to ten years?
Meanwhile Marsden can keep collecting £250k a year for being CEO.
Such a pity. We know it works and we know interferon is the answer, but we are 90% down and any news is completely irrelevant because Synairgen completely ruined the trial which was needed in order to approve the treatment.
The only hope this treatment gets passed = ACTIV2 and that has been temporarily halted.
It’ll take another 3-5 years to set up another trial and do another fund raise (who’s going to put more money in this now at a fund raise, given how badly the company f11cked up the trial?). So we are reliant on ACTIV2, or this treatment never sees it to market.
Basically welcome to the wilderness.
On top of that, covid cases have risen 54% in one week since we opened everything up. SNG001 is going to be extremely needed to save lives, but sadly it’ll never see the light of day because the team at Synairgen completely screwed up the only chance we had at getting approved.