Member Info for andsoforth

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49762370

Turnover down 45%
Cash down 33%
Loss for six months of £0.2m
Interim dividend held at 2p.
However "...the second half has started well with a number of transactions completed including an IPO. This means Cenkos has completed two of only seven IPO's whose shares were admitted to trading on the AIM market in the period to August 2019, which demonstrates that Cenkos remains the leading AIM broker, raising money even in very difficult market conditions. Pipeline for the remainder of the year and for 2020 is encouraging. We continue to evolve our business to adapt to market changes and remain at the forefront in providing capital and solutions for growth companies."

The actions include getting rid of two directors. The new/reinstated CEO is taking control here.

"...a substantial weakening in the Company's results,.."

Revenue down 12%
EPS down 75%
Profit down 40%

Second half weighting 'should lead to the Group meeting turnover expectations in 2019 while profitability is projected to be broadly in line with expectations'.
Overall, very disappointing, even with $166m revenues contracted.

...increased by between 20 and 80 per cent. Dividend may be impacted. Should see a fall here today.

I also meant to say that here seems to be a reaction to the new CEO, with a chunk of the investment team leaving. That is not good, but the same happened at Miton a couple of years back, and there was no discernible impact in the longer term.

The EBT purchases are undertaken to provide stock for staff bonuses, so no chance they will stop. Much of the cash in the bank belongs to clients, so the company is not in as healthy a condition as it at first appears. BUT this should still pull through. Next update is "late September"!

"the Company's revenues in the first six months have been lower than the first half of last year. The Company's revenues are anticipated to be substantially second half weighted.....The Board also confirm that a number individuals within the Company's Investment Companies Team have tendered their resignations. "
Price currently down 10%.

Agreed takeover at 285, a 38% premium. Congratulations to all holders.

Weakness is in part due to an FT article that says Neil Woodford, put a great deal of business the way of Cenkos, and this relationship is now necessarily at an end. The last statement remained optimistic, but deals have not been materialising.

It is interesting though that today there were four huge sells, totalling 1.9m shares, but the price did not noticeably fall.

Duroc may have taken a stake to prevent anyone else moving in for the kill. Lakestreet have made bad moves before: such as those related to Deutchebank and Menzies. They are not infallible. The RNS this morning has not helped my confidence. I still have a tiny interest, but can see it reaching zero.

Down 31% since inception two years ago. At least two of the holdings seem ready to go fins up. Stuck some money in here as I thought the 'professionals' would do a lot better than me. I was very wrong. Every one of their holdings came up on my personal very basic 'value' screening; but I rejected every single one after further research. Less 'strategic' than 'shambles'! Does anyone have any reason I shouldn't cut my losses?

It now seems very likely we will see this slip into administration. Results were delayed to accommodate the bankers and lenders. This suggests they are less than supportive. The most logical outcome for Duroc is that they allow the company to fall into administration, shed the pension deficit, then buy the remaining business. Shareholders will receive nothing. I have kept only a nominal amount.

Market research published in US suggesting world cigarette consumption has fallen much more quickly than an anticipated. The price here is following the falls in the US yesterday:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/altria-stock-philip-morris-cigarette-sales-plunge-nielsen-51559059858

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/altria-british-american-tobacco-stocks-slide-on-nielsen-cigarette-data.html

There is a horrendous spread here, and the price can fly about like a mad man's excrement for no reason whatsoever (reflecting the small float). The last update was also rather non-committal. With a PER of 20, this may well not be a bargain.

However there is a yield of 3.5% as we stand, and the company will pay a special dividend of c8p when it sells the office block it is currently leasing out in London (probably in 2020). The company is well managed and conservatively run, with management showing good concern for their fellow investors. Could this be of interest to income seekers?

PER = 6
PtoB = 0.6
Forward yield =c4%.
Directors bought extensively between 56 and 60.
Recent buying by Blackrock.
Profit forecast of £105-120m for 2019/20.
Debt to EBITDA = 1.7
Recent and lowest broker target 65.
Embarking on a "strategy to return the whole business to its heritage as an organisation that offers differentiated products and services".

The figures here are less than inspiring, but the company is profitable, will pay a sustainable dividend, has a great brand. If the turnaround works we should see c120; even if it stutters we should see an increase of 20%.

Worth a small flutter?

Oldbadger is bang on. They will have to pay about 47/48p. My apologies. I went for the average not the highest price.http://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code It will probably be cheaper and more efficient to take it out of administration if the banks are not supportive "in the coming months".

If Duroc load up now, they can pay an overall average of about 25p or so, and that will become the takeover price. The management may well be happy to accept that. Yes, a disaster! The management will undoubtedly reappear elsewhere, and are to be avoided at all costs.

At the AGM next month two motions are being considered, each allowing the purchase of the 'irredeemable' cumulative preference shares. This will set an appalling precedent if done at par.

I totally agree. The only question that remains is how this will happen. Duroc could launch a bid, or there could be a pre-pack administration with Duroc as the beneficiaries. I have top sliced at a loss, but it is better than being left with nothing. There may be a dead cat bounce, but I am reluctant to put any real money in here.