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:-) I guess we never know. General direction up even ifca few bumps in the road

Sageman. Interesting 200m volume to get ftse250 mix. What about the 90m short interest. Is this part of the 200m or additional?

'Balance sheet impairments or potential revaluations because of higher oil prices are a balance sheet item, they do not affect cashflow but may affect reported reserves (and potentially reserves-based lending capacity). The incremental cashflow at Brent $70 is included in the analysis as per Tullow's guidance (each $10 adds $100m pre-financing cash flow).'

Does it follow that an incremental $100m per annum over the 10 year plan @, say, 10% dcf =$0.6Bn incremental cash so that if the SP was (say) 30p at CMD and (say) MV £0.4Bn then an incremental $100m per annum increases the market value to $1Bn or SP 70p.
As Rahul says, the cashflow is a matter of timing

Thank you for the analysis.
Should you include the balance of the $1Bn portfolio management sales as nothing to indicate this wont happen based on performance so far.
Also the balance sheet $0.2Bn negative equity (cash) using impairment at $60 long range price but Brent is nearly $70 now..

'Why didnt the market react to this week oil inventory figures ?'
Probably the US stimulus increased demand expectation combined with rotation into energy. If so and inventories fall, SP will increase further I guess.

Exxon, Chevron down more than BP. Brent up 2.68%. I guess top slicing and back into stimulus driven growth stocks.happy if we consolidate around 319+

Would be great to get back over £5 as quickly as we left it.
'Energy today could well be tobacco of 2000', I hope so.
https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/bp-share-price-forecast-09032021/

10% down every day and the logic of 5p calling. Shorts making an absolute fortune

From memory, SB posted he took profit at c15p, 25p and 33/34p. Think he still holds a good chunk and may have top sliced since?. Nothing wrong with taking profit to suit personal circumstances even if holding would have meant bigger profit. Me, I have a tax bill and some new windows. Love TLW and the $7Bn operating cashflow plan..

SP has already been reset based on $45/$50 oil so div looks safe. Oil is nearly $70. I see the SP going up, and incremental cash being returned to shareholders as ceo stated.

its dropped c10% every day. Why 10p and not the ipo price or lower?

Thankyou Roxbury, got it. Hence your statement 'TLW is very clearly and very deliberately flagging to the market it may need to restructure its debt'. Its down to the Directors and the accounts dont exist for audit signature/ opinion until the Directors sign first.

Can we avoid an audit qualification re the liquidity forecast test and the 18-month testing period from March 2021 to August 2022.
Worst case and completion the would be a $365m shortfall in April 2022. Thats based on $45bl 2021 and $47bl 2022.

Another fact based post. Thank you Happy

Thanks for the insightful analysis happy.

Think next week should be better now the senate have passed the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/27/stimulus-update-house-passes-bidens-1point9-trillion-covid-bill-heres-whats-next.html

Think we will see 360p in anticipation or confirmation of Q1 results which should be very good depending how much the accountants release over 2020 $45/$50 assumptions.

Agree OAC.
You reminded me of a Roxbury post which I have included the link again.

TLW Enterprise value in the link is $4.8Bn (Dec 2020). On Friday our market value was $670m ($1.39/£).
As TLW sells more of the $1Bn portfoilio and improves cash and cash equivalents, net debt decreases.
All other things being equal, market capitalisation should increase and suriname, incremental ghana, Kenya, cost avoidance/ savings etc will accelerate an increase in market value toward the $7Bn operational cashflow entity over 10 years.
Am I mixing up terms, market capitaization v market value, anyone?

https://reorg.com/tullow-oil-2022-bondholders-hire-akin-gump-to-advise-in-debt-negotiations/

Thanks Tony, Slift et al.

In terms of our investment, because the oil price is favorable, the $1Bn portfolio management activity is near completion and the company can generate fcf into the future, is it fair to say next weeks RBL is the tipping point?

Rahuls incentive is c10m+ shares with 9m options vesting in 2025. The current SP is already above the option price for 6m and he purchased c$350k at the start. He needs a capital structure that underpins operating cashflows with a growth capex fund up front to execute his strategy. So EG is his leverage until the rbl consortium or bondholders agree to ring fence this source of growth capex for Rahul to deliver his plan.

Which comes first, approval of EG, the RBL RNS or a clean audit report with no qualification?

Only the 2022 and 2025 bonds showing as outstanding on the IR website. I was sure I saw the 2021 convertible bonds on there previously.
Odd, wip or just my misunderstanding?
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/corporate-bond-and-credit-rating/