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LoL April fools day

Interesting. Whilst we are waiting to bag :-), according to the Fed, “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. I guess that extends to the EU/ China, OECD/ IMF et al and their 'congruent' (in the case of UK, post brexit!) programmes..
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210317.pdf

$2Bn margin call on a family office friday, a bit more today. Think it was more tech related but who knows with derivatives

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Suez-Egypt/tides/latest

Looks like a strong north wind 30km pinning the ship in until wednesday. Light winds thursday and tidal conditions ok...

Yep

http://www.nationaltrustcollections.org.uk/object/207840

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/suez-canal-live-news-ship-blocked-b1821511.html

Not just oil movement, consumer goods also.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/suez-canal-blockage-set-to-ripple-through-global-energy-market

2 big buys this afternoon £54m. Trade price 302..

As I said over the weekend, could visit 285 before 345 in April but only if the trading pattern over last 3 or 4 months is in play. The 45 min least sqyare moving average says 302 to me next. If we close above 302 think panic over. Just my opinion. I am holding and get it wrong timing dips

Hurts my head to think about it. Maybe time, cost and distance to (regulated) markets can be overcome if Aramco or CNOCC buy a 'green' BP.
BP is going to do OK selling >$60 in the meantime.

support 292, resistance 323

'like driving whilst facing the rear view mirror'
I agree and that is one of the criticisms using the 6th order ie repeats the past. Agree we have reached a tipping point in sentiment/ macro factors relating to global policies/ pandemic/ trade. Still risk black swan events etc

The polynomial trend line of 2nd order dampens the rear view mirror outcomes but captures the recent change in sentiment/ trend and extends (forecasts) the recovery up and to the right on the chart. So a simple hold strategy is perhaps the least riskiest strategy, collecting dividend income along the way? Have to be in it to win it!
GLA

Interesting, in excel, a polynomial trend line of the 2nd order tells me the price will trend this week to 325 then 345 April and if the trend/ recovery continues...back to were we started >£5. This is based on my trading behaviour including periods of inactivity...

If I set the polynomial trend line to the 6th order, it says we visit 285 before we get to 325. The 6th order takes account of the peaks and troughs over the last 4 or 5 months and calculates the same volatility/ pattern.

I guess, if you hold through the dips/ or buy the dips, you get to £5 anyway.
If you try to time the dips, which in themselves maybe constructed to make profit from your buying and selling behaviors, (if you are like me) you are likely get it wrong at least once and will need to trade more to get back to neutral before getting to £5, possibly missing the profit from Fridays closing price 308 to 325 next week or 345 in April etc

Anyone?

Think its the quarterly witching day tommorrow/ future options expiry..ie sell rather than pay actual cash or take physical possession...

My gut says the shorts closed some. Now watch if they reopen...wild ride this

Looking forward to the new disclosure in Q1 reporting and confirmations.

“The release of our new financial disclosure framework is an important step in our journey to reinvent bp. The reporting structure defines how we performance manage the company to maximise value. And the metrics provide increased transparency as we progress our strategic agenda, enhancing understanding of our business and demonstrating the significant value within our portfolio.”

Consistent with our purpose and net zero ambition we have made a commitment to reinvent bp.
We have a new strategy, a new organizational model and from the start of 2021 have also changed the way that we performance manage bp, commencing reporting on this basis with our first quarter 2021 results.

Our new financial disclosure framework comprises our new segmental reporting structure and associated disclosures. It follows a significant review of and enhancement to, our disclosures and forms part of a broader reporting framework that includes our Annual Report, Sustainability Report and ESG data sheet.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/financial-disclosure-framework.html

'I suspect that they've done deals with BT/Openreach to ensure this doesn't end up in court'
Engineers testing the mood..
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bt-workers-could-strike-nationally-084722339.html

LoL to the moon