Member Info for Android101

£2 does seem a stretch. How much is $7Bn cashflow less debt worth once the plan is in flight. More than £1?

Slift, re Kenya, 'is it worth splashing all that CAPEX developing the asset for 6k (10%) to 12k (20%) bopd (in the foundation phase)?
All of a sudden, EG assets look valuable af. The breakeven for Kenya will be much higher than EG due to onshore and pipeline costs.'

Tlw RNS,
'At the Capital Markets Day, Tullow also stated that it would continue to consider additional asset sales, provided that they are value accretive and strengthen the balance sheet. The EG Transaction is in line with this strategy, reducing Tullow's capital commitments and operating expenditure per barrel and allowing the Group to focus its investment on the highest value and highest return opportunities within its portfolio.'

The timing of cash flows imust be the constraining factor. Rahul said this in the call.

Slift, I get what you are saying but 'a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush'.
EG is a real contract putting cash on the table now. I am feeling more confident about TLWs ability to service and repay debt as the management have delivered a large part of the $1Bn portfolio management plan they said they would. TLW was always going to be smaller/ constrained before it is allowed to spend capital and grow. Kenya looks feasible now and that blows EG out of the water in its impact over the 10 years and I think EG disposal gets soaked up in the 10 year strategy or version 63 of the spreadsheet...aimo

Slift, its because of the timing of cashflows that Rahul has decided the least cost or max contribution route to the $7Bn is to use EG cash for liquidity and service/ pay down debt. We arent at $100 yet so yes there is risk in the 10 year plan, but less than the one used in the base case because we are already at $64 in Q1 and the prospect for higher oil prices is strengthening imo. Also, the CFO used $60 for the impairment of assets and we are already challenging that assumption. I am not surprised Buffet has invested in Chevron. Shame we dont have a Warren B. Or maybe we do..? GLA

Think the oul price is going more than $100, but when I dont know..
But selling 1 bbl for $100 versus 2 bbl at $50, where the second bbl needs incremental capex, incremental operational capacity/ opex etc. I know I would prefer to sell 1bbl at $100 and let demand compete for a scarce resource until the investment case is clear for the second bbl. Rahul is in charge of our 'development pipeline' pardon the pun, and is balanced with RBL, capital structure/ refi and 10 year strategy delivering $7bn operating cashflow. SP is rising because the market knows this. Easy hold for me..

small reduction by whitebox, yesterdays data
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions

'Be nice to see 34p+ this week'
We were 34p last month before the news on EG so must be possible imo

Slift/Jubileey, you argue like a couple of bots.
Heres one for you.
An algo walks into a bar. The barman says, 'what are you drinking'? The algo says, 'I'll have what everybody else is drinking'
Boom Boom

Perhaps now that Biden has abandoned the UK for the Netherlands post brexit, we will bolster our relationship with Russia and China. Companies like HW are one of the largest international investors in UK. Long term, we shoukd benefit as a major hub on the end of the 'chinese belt and road'

I also appreciate good technical analysis. Important to do your own research and validate anyone elses. For example, someone on here was advising to sell when the rsi dropped below 30 on the D/W/M whereas others were advising to buy and the SP was hovering around 250. I guess thats the difference between day trades and longer term investing.

They probably closed eg 34p short and reopened 31p. I guess if you hold, they add up all the algo trades and make nothing. RBL news will grind them down imo.

8ead, SB posted he sold 10m at 33/34p. The SP churned down to c 25p and the short/ algo trades we see daily. Thats why we havent bounced back on fantastic information from TLW imo

SB unloaded 10m at 33/34p a few weeks ago. Whoever bought them/ loaned them out must be close to completion

Thanks, thats good news.

'you could get your complete investment back just in dividends in the next few years'
Come on guys. I give up on this BB. So long and good luck.

Thanks gogadget, thats very helpful.
Enterprise value is c.£2.47 per share!
Anyone know why keeping the shorts open at 26p when oil is rising $55+, cash flowing, economies opening..?

will be interesting to see who is on the short interest tracker next week as the threshold for declaration is reduced so more shorts will be recorded by fca

Up?

'built upon a slightly higher range'
I thought Rahul changed the profile to produce more profitable/ lower cost oil. The message was about ensuring profit and cash maximisation, for capex and to service interest out to the future. Its possible to produce more and sell it at a loss which is hidden in the bottom line. So I think the lower production numbers are the fine tuning from which Rahul has no escape. I also think Rahul will be able to turn production up under his cost benefit rules without causing profit/ cash issues.

hope = sentiment = 20%