Member Info for AndInFirstPlace

Ignoring the recent share price fall..

Would you as an investor, invest in a company with the best lft test in the world, about to dose its first patient that could revolutionise cancer treatment with a global patent until mid 2030’s at 150p £c400m Mcap!?

Volatility is painful but fundamentals drive the share price long term

Hold your nerve and you will be rewarded!

Market timing is a mugs game

The best hedge fund in the world only gets it right 50.1% of the time

Buy the dips and hold your nerve

If you have ever dealt in multi million pound contracts you would know that they go back and forth between lawyers over the minute detail and days can easily run into weeks.

They won’t rush because small retail investors demand sales updates, a bad contract is worse than no sales in the long term

Home use CE mark and sales will come over the next 30 days

Just relax and buy the dip

all this whinging is boring, is everyone not off furlough yet?

if you can't handle short term volatility then go and buy a 10 year gilt

Yawn - will happen when it happens - once the big orders come in you’ll be saying management are great

A 10 day delay means nothing if contracts are already agreed

The plot thickens

I think AgentB makes good point, it won’t pass the latest porton down compliance unless they improve their test and it isn’t Anterior Nasal sample.

It’s a pretty long article - Anna Gross in London is the Journalist if anyone fancies explaining how crap it is however she does also comment on quality concerns.

- The world’s biggest rapid Covid-19 test maker will start manufacturing in the UK, with a factory in Wales set to begin producing millions of tests a day this summer.

Dan Elliott, chief executive of California-based Innova, told the Financial Times the company was “making large investments into the UK” to produce the tests for domestic use and export.

“The UK is a key market to us,” he said. “We’ve been a good partner to the government, the government’s been a good partner to us.”

Their Chinese lft

FT article

Copy and paste - World’s biggest rapid Covid test maker to start producing in UK

My very high level numbers with Avacta tinted specs on..

£30m profit per month is £360m per year (ignoring any other costs and the premium on the share price for the other parts of the biz) £360m on a 12x p/e is mcap of roughly £4.3bn. divided by the roughly 250m shares is how I get to a price around £15.

DYOR all

I think 30m per month at £1 profit per test would be enough to send the share price above £15

AS said in the presentation that the only current UK client at any volume is the UK Gov, this would likely limit the appetite of any UK based manufacturers wanting to partner directly with Avacta, BBI and ABX were agreed prior to any mention of a Sovereign test., so the goalposts have changed somewhat. To me, and I admit I am no expert, would think any new manufacturing partners would be overseas and they would wanted certainty of CE approval before investing in any research or costs of the tech transfer, as I imagine there is significant cost to getting everything in place to manufacture something so specific.

Hopefully we will see more manufacturers post CE confirmation, along with significant orders, as we know manufacturing capacity is the limitation here!

Come on Al - RNS today please

Very assured, knows his stuff

Most interesting part -

We are now very close to self-declaration of the CE mark of the AffiDX® rapid antigen test for professional use and commercial launch in early May. We have made very good commercial progress with potential distributors, licensing partners and large-scale end users and demand is strong. We also expect to see the first pharmacokinetic data for AVA6000 before the end of the year which will give us the first indication of the effectiveness of the pre|CISION™ chemistry in humans so I am very much looking forward to updating the market on these events and other progress across the Group during the coming months."

Shush sagetrade you melt

Well done to all that held their nerve and held onto their stock - even with the sell off we were only at the level we were at beginning of March but still difficult to hold your nerve on the back of an 85p drop in a week or so

Still time for those that sold to get back in IMO but better be quick

Good news inbound - good luck all

I have a bought a September Future at 112p this morning - looks like a bargain to me

When Al said news rich and transformational Q4, he obviously meant Q4 of the tax year!!!

Would hate to be out this stock right now