Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
There's also a Turkish director on the BOD so not too hard for them to keep up to date on Turkish media. Lack of information isn't going to be the issue.
But for now given the unrealistic representation in that article of what can actually happen I can imagine them not being that bothered.
There's nothing suspicious about the site the article is on. It's just a different newspaper from the same media group and it would be fairly normal for it to take longer for something like that to make it to the the Daily where they need to translate and cross check more.
The sense of reality is still very low of course as they can't bid for the entire company unless there's Europeans in it for more than 50%. So they should at least leak some details on what the actual plan is here. Note that aside from ludicrous plans there's very little that can be put on the table that would suit shareholders. (Ludicrous plans would be along the lines of NK accepting a 200k shares issue to the tune of over 3£ a share hence financing the company significantly without the need to put more than 50% of the shares in non EU hands).
I guess they agree the situation and these prices are good for shorters. Probably their main issue is finding someone willing to part with some shares.
You said "almost all of them start shorting under 6p" ... So they borrowed shares right? Obviously far from all of the shares they have borrowed but anyway. What stopped them from selling them when it was at 12p just a few days later?
Most of the shorts were opened at prices higher than what you see now. I am indeed surprised no additional shorts were opened a few days back. though maybe no one was that interested in giving them the required shares on a loan. They might have considered it was better to just sell them instead of giving them to shorters.
Those are the dates they last changed their short, that's not the same as when they started shorting. You should look at their positions before 11/7 to judge. Whitebox was at 3.22 already and TT international was at 3.27 (they have had multiple movements after the 11th). You also assume that someone sells the shares they borrow as soon as they take a short. What exactly stops them from borrowing on a rise and selling them when they think it hits peak?
JTMacs, apparently you can explain to us how Half Year Results 2019 page 14 contains inflated/exaggerated debt? I did my own research but clearly I'm at a different level of comprehension.
Note: if you want to make sense of the numbers. Look up numbers related to the Russian market. Using numbers from a specific target market for Russian Tour Ops leads to skewed results.
Pricey, this is what I've been alluding to all the time: if NK is making a smart move he's moving for the Russian market and what he wants from TCG is the Russian assets. His experience is there, it's a market he understands far better and he'll accept dilution if they play ball. He can call it a victory, tell everyone that this was the synergy he was talking about all along and at the cost of a few million he's top dog in Russia. How about Fosun's plan? Did anyone ever see them talk up the Russian assets? I never did.
Puss, a lot of them are simply because it isn't really being done by the entity we are debating about here. Does it matter what the JV managing the hotels does? I guess about as much as what the JV in China does or the one in Russia. None of it is fully part of the numbers represented at the end of the fiscal year but it is of course used to make it sound as if they are very busy. For the rest of it: TCG is making lots of moves based on their belief that they will have a solution for their financial woes by the end of fiscal year. Would that mean it's a disaster if that plan doesn't happen? Sure, all the more reason to accept it will happen.
TCG is massive and can burn the cash needed to not be irreparably damaged and they do that by the grace of their lenders. That's exactly why at the end of the day those lenders will be who is in charge when the final decision is made. Not Fosun, not the BOD, not NK and his friends and definitely not the the shareholders but lenders and then bondholders.
Pioneer, yes I do cause what NK suggests isn't a plan. He's not thinking with a mindset that fits the Western European market and has had no successes here. He also hasn't offered any numbers so we're just working with dreams. Also: what synergies? Have you seen anything more than him saying they are there? No? Thought so.
BTW Fosun isn't giving up the airlines cause they want to but because they have to. In its current shape TC without airlines would have been bust already. If Lufthansa hadn't botched the Eurowings integration they would have bought the airline in its entirety and they will be kicking themselves for a while over that (but there's definitely room for second chances so don't be surprised if that's where it gets offloaded to in a year or 2).
Pioneer, your view on Fosun's plan is wrong. The main issue with that leak was that without a market understanding of tourism it isn't that easy to read between the lines. What was leaked was actually looking as a more solid plan than I expected. I'm sure banks/bondholders will be given the appropriate amount of insight (after all they aren't in the business either).
Puss, the problem is that you don't see how many things are just smoke and mirrors in this business. The amount of Joint Ventures in play is extensive which is exactly why magically lots of things are not in the balance sheet. Who actually really owns/pays is completely unclear cause it's hidden in something that doesn't need to report it as clearly. It is exactly the same game NK plays and exactly the reason why everyone calls him a billionaire on here. They haven't seen a single balance sheet and have no clue what his net worth really is but "he owns multiple hotels!".
If I take a mortgage and buy a 10M£ castle my net worth also doesn't magically go up but hey, I can still tell everyone I "own" a 10M£ castle right?
I've read the interview, so what? Did you read the glorious announcement of how Anex was going to conquer the German market? Did you then look at how they fared and thought "oh yeah, fair enough all what happened was supposed to be a surprise for them"?! He massively misjudged it and ran it into the ground in a very short time span but now you think he's some sort of genius that knows better than everyone else? The interview essentially just states he didn't learn anything and is still peddling the same stories.
All those other companies that were named in advance as potential buyers all decided against it even though all of them have more cash, synergies ... than NK but it isn't worth it as the investment is massive and you need the cash to chew through a rough period. Fosun has that cash and his idea that they are just investors after they managed to turn around Club Med and are booming in China with their JV with TCG makes you wonder how much research he put into this.
As such, hopefully I'm not giving him too much credit if I think he's just doing it to have his shot at being the biggest Tour Operator in Russia. If the smoke screen clears and he comes up with that: I tip my hat and will call it well played. Yes it will be at the expense of the shareholders but hey that's business and some research and sense would have alarmed them well in advance. If he honestly believes he's going to come up with a plan that's better than what's on the table then let's hope the banks don't fall for it cause there's thousands of jobs that will be destroyed when it collapses and it's no longer worth saving.
Why would banks ever prefer NK over Fosun? The limitations are exactly the same: the airline has to end up in EU hands. Fosun has a lot more cash to back up their plan and have shown to be able to do a turn around in Western Europe with their purchase of Club Med. NK in Western Europe? A failed attempt to get into the UK market 8 years ago (and they cried about losing less than a million) and a failed attempt at getting a proper foothold in Germany.
How is this even considered a competition?
NK has experience in an entirely different market and the only smart thing for him to do here is to tap into that and try and get something out of this arrangement. As such if he gets a stake in the Russian JV that TCG is part of then hat of to him, good and sensible business move. A real part in TCG turn around? Insanity. If he's half the business man the dreamers all think he is he'll sell out the shareholders as soon as he gets a chance at being part of what would be the biggest tour operator in Russia.
Indeed! Never claimed to be Frank. Who's Frank?
Couldn't really spare the time from work to keep up with the hope train so where are we at? How many times has our Russian investor been called a billionaire? How many times did we again need to hear that NK is? How many insane sp projections did we see?
Word on the street in the city: Fosun continues its due diligence and the deal is the only one received and worked on.
Why tomorrow? He has 2 days so his TR-1 should be in today. Look at his original announcements: First threshold on Friday 26th -> submission 30th, second reach 29th and submitted 30th and third reached 30th and submitted 30th and all of them released on Wednesday (31st) morning so essentially just all submitted at end of play 30th. He got the rest on 31st and immediately submitted it as cat was out of the bag anyway. As such I also don't see why he would have waited after Friday.
He has to announce any 1% in holding change (and has 2 days to do so) so essentially he's supposed to be still sitting on 8% but likely did not buy/sell significantly on Thursday/Friday. If he has started to sell out you'd essentially also know soon enough though given he has 2 days he can offload quite a bit before he announces it.
Invesco was the RNS on 29th of July. Note also that for holding changes below 5% there are no requirements to make announcements so for all the holdings below 5% I'm not sure where Red thinks he can get reliable numbers from.