RE: 🔥 On a run...⬆️22 Apr 2026 10:34
From the other site
Valuation and the Dilution Question
https://stockcrock.substack.com/p/photonics-supercycle-the-12-companies
Current Valuation: IQE’s valuation has detached from its historical averages. At a Price-to-Sales (P/S) of ~5.5x, it is no longer the “deep value” play it was in 2025.
The Capex & Dilution Risk: IQE needs to expand capacity to meet the 1.6T ramp.
Taiwan Sale: They are currently negotiating the sale of their Taiwan operations. This is the preferred “non-dilutive” path to repaying their Revolving Credit Facility and the Convertible Loan Notes issued in March 2025.
Dilution Risk: If the Taiwan sale falls through or the price is lower than expected, the risk of a secondary equity raise (dilution) is High. The market’s current euphoria (shares up massively) provides management with a “golden bridge” to raise capital at a high valuation. While they haven’t announced a raise, I would expect a “cleanup” placement by H2 2026 to fund the next-gen reactor fleet.
Investor Verdict: If you see them ordering a large fleet of Aixtron reactors without a confirmed Taiwan sale, expect a dilution event to follow within weeks