Member Info for Alta_Traako

Just disclosing that they fulfilled a trade for a client. Definition of forms listed here: https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/disclosure/disclosure-forms

Got to say Mac, I've never been in such an exciting share. BOD keep over delivering from behind the scenes now. WK feasibility, Tipli, MT flanks due, this new app for maybe MT flanks, additional part of MT, or maybe even Volche. All this and also continually derisking the share more and more! Told myself I would stop but I think I will top up again this week lol.

Good luck! Alta.

hahaha! Time for another sweet sweet RNS I think!

JINX!!!!

Exciting potential development here for anyone who has not seen it yet: https://mobile.twitter.com/like_mines/status/1297880375855808512

Maybe related to the 100 + 60 km2 volche application Alex and I were looking at last week here: https://twitter.com/R1EXG/status/1296063453036257280

New licence granted to our sub, TGK, would be great news. Exciting times ahead!

Based on what the BOD have said about their plans at WK I would suggest that the placing benefits us no matter how you look at it. They have been explicit and consistent in their plan.

Stated purpose of placing:
The net proceeds from the Placing, which was undertaken by the Company's Joint Broker Optiva Securities, will be used towards scaling up the production of West Kytlim, as announced in the Company's Annual Report dated 1 July 2020.

They have already:
- Booted out the contractors for inconsistent performance and so now operate independently and take home 100% rather than 70%.
- Feasibility study and revised reserves approved to develop area further
- Additional drilling was done
- Kluchiki Area feasibility study upgraded reserves from C2 to C1 category.
- Bolshaya Sosnovka Drilling program to increase reserves.
- Tipil licence granted 24.5km2
- Flanks 50.7km2 approval received by MOD. Waiting for final approval.

Next that have:

Implemented COVID measures so that staff can continue to work in isolation and operations can progress as normal.

Running a new fleet to increase output including:
- Two new Hitachi ZX330LC-5G excavators
- One Hitachi ZX300LC-5A
- One 30 ton Chetra T15 bulldozer
- Four Kamaz 20-tonne ore haulage trucks
- One fuel truck

Commissioned feasibility study to:
- Approve all resources on the licence to minable status in the mining licence without need to drill
- Increase production volumes to C1 category across the entire WK.

CS has also mentioned the potential for significantly increasing resources at WK. Although platinum is the focus of WK there are other metals here (e.g. pd and rh).

I would suggest that the $10m placing cash at market price will add many multiples of the placing price to WK value over time. This will be beneficial to us long term if we end up keeping WK and also short term as the ball will already be rolling for a buyer. Can’t see a scenario where the placing is a downside especially at market price.

RNSs where the above was stated:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/w11104w
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/w3d70dx
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/wk56p2w

No application yet, but EUA have exclusive rights to apply for it, therefore a buyer will have exclusive rights to apply for it. That is why it is highly likely to be included in any negotiation.

Get back in there Mac. Have a peek inside their purses and bumbags and see how much cash they've got for us.

Ok Alex you've had the weekend to relax. Now go infiltrate AP and see how much extra goodies they've found for us!

Mac, I've agreed with every post I've read from you since you always point people to information to help them research so I hope you don't think I was having a dig at you. Just gets my back up seeing sky high valuations and aired that to the BB in general. If even one newcomer decided to go away and read an RNS before investing on the promise of a certain price then I'll consider my post worth it. Benefits people to get into a habit of doing their own research. Maybe that's just the academic in me but I think that's reasonable.

Nitrokev, yep you better believe I've plunked all of the numbers in to see what it would do to my holding lol. £1.50 and I retire at 28. We'll I'd give up the lecturing and stick to my statistics so I'm not too bored. I don't think £2 is nonsense especially if we get all the additional goodies but I do think away up at £7 is. Just my view but maybe I'm in the minority and we will soon find out!

Can't believe I feel like the resident deramper with a 80p - £1.20 target lol. Bring back Frankey and Spikeyj to take this heat.

Anyway. I'm off to the beach.

GLA

Alta

Moneymaker,
I base all my thoughts on the stuff below, particularly the last quote increasing the production plan since they are from the annual report and the FSP RNS. Don't see it as contradictory as it is in an RNS and wouldn't get signed off by NOMAD if it was false information.

Mac,
Fully agree that we have a ton in the pipeline which could unlock some of that additional 21Moz but for me until we have applications RNS'd then I'm not including it into my valuation to avoid ramping to new investors.

“The total amount controlled by Eurasia and under flanks exclusivity right application is c.15Moz of PGM as per the State Cadastre with an additional c. 4Moz also within the 5km exclusivity area.”

(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)

“As previously announced the application for the flanks areas at Monchetundra received Ministry of Defence approval (see RNS dated 17 December 2019). Approval by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the last remaining federal body, whose approval is required for the flanks licence application, was also subsequently confirmed to the Company by Sevzapnedra (see RNS dated 9 April 2020). The Directors expect the license to be issued by Sevzapnedra (the regional licensing body) soon as per standard process.”

(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)

“MONCHETUNDRA

A fully funded development project; with 15moz palladium dominated PGM resource, it is one of the largest assets globally not owned by a PGM major.

Asset overview:
Ownership: 80%
Operating Partners: Sinosteel, Central Kola Expedition
Region: Murmanskaya Oblast, Russian Kola Peninsula bordering Finland.
Mine type: Open pit
Licensing: Mining license to 2038. Financed via Sinosteel EPCF.
Status: Preparation for production.
Product/Offtake: PGM and base metals concentrate (Palladium dominant, Platinum, Gold, Nickel and Copper).
Infrastructure: Road, Rail, Sea Hub, Power and labour. Close to Finish border
Mine life: >20 years
Target production: 1,000koz at full capacity
Exploration upside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences.”

(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/rmom18x_).

Only reason I post any of that is because new investors are going to see this ever increasing nonsense now over £7 sale, shove money in, not get £7 and be annoyed and dismiss peoples research in the future. I know several new investors that are utterly convinced of a £5+ sale and refuse to believe anything else (even though using their own calcs they never get anywhere near £5). I think its utterly wrong because they have invested based on the word of someone else and although I doubt anyone can lose money on this (unless they are short, Sam, or Tom), that blind faith in ramping/ deramping will eventually lead them to get stung.

Deramper at 80-120.
lol. bye

Probably worth keeping in mind that although there are plenty of studies saying that we have ridiculous amounts of metal in the ground in out licences areas and the surrounding area (where we do not yet have licences and therefore cannot be sold by us), there are an equal amount of studies that have tested the extent to which it would be worthwhile mining given that the associated costs would not allow the level of profit the buyers would like. For example, a few studies have assessed different methods of washing the metals metals to try to see whether a cost effective solution could justify mining for the more difficult to reach metals. The research tends to range from no - depends on the make up of the metal as implementing new methods costs money. These were relatively old studies though and with the increased metal process then those results may be different and those metals that previously would not be mined could be attributive. If you want to read them yourselves then they are all online (just run a literature search), but at this point the BOD have done all of the leg work and told you what we have to sell.

I would therefore ONLY take the numbers given by the company to make your valuations (i.e. the experts who are running the business and selling it for us). The numbers given at MT are 15Moz pd equiv (maybe 19Moz with the exclusivity for the surrounding 5km). I work that out to be 80p-120p. There is obviously a lot of speculation about the role of AP increasing resources and the possibility of another licence which would be incredible and blow out valuations out of the water, but until that is RNSd by the company then we can only assume that we are selling 15-19 Moz Pd equiv (and potentially the rest of the company too). We can only sell what we have, and what we have is in the RNS. I can sell my own house, but I can't go around putting for sale signs up in my neighbours garden and expect the profits from that too.

The numbers have not changed since last year when the flanks, potential sale of assets etc. was announced where everyone bought in at 1-3p realising they were onto a winner and are now sitting several 1000% better off. Ultimately, until the numbers are changed by the BOD via RNS (which I actually think has a high chance of happening!!!) then I would not assume sky high profits. Still an easy 4-5 bags if buying now IMO even without any resource increases or new licences. It's an easy buy for making profits in a reasonably small time frame with the lowest risk that I can see on AIM, but if you're expecting 30 bags from here via a sale without a huge hike in resources/ licences then I think you will be disappointed.

If we do get increased resources then David has an excellent piece valuing it here: https://twitter.com/DShox1/status/1290553825170984961

If we even 20 bag from here with no increased resources or licences I will buy a car of your choice and try to eat it.

Have a good weekend folks.
Alta (Deramper at

Probably because the 1000koz production plan, and on going works elsewhere to potentially increase reserves/ gain more licences. These have the potential to blow valuations out of the water really.

My original numbers were based on the 15Moz + 4Moz to give a range (lowest was 72p and highest 121p) but there is a reasonable possibility that those numbers could be increased so I can see why people have increased their valuations. Will stick to using the numbers from the RNS until told otherwise but can understand the excitement!

No problem, Jimjam. Mainly posted for the user on the board that previously asked me to let them know when the Telegram group was open.

Alta

Hello.

Anyone that wanted to join the EUA Telegram group, a new one has been set up for people to join to discuss EUA since there are a lot of new shareholders since trading has resumed. All opinions welcomed. All research support for your opinions are even more welcome. Nonsense ramping, deramping, personal insults, abuse and similar unnecessary rubbish is not welcome. It is just new today but will be updated with all the information that everyone has complied over the past few years.

If you want to join then follow the link from GMFs tweet here: https://twitter.com/GMF782/status/1290004700436168704

Thanks to GMF for setting this up for people.

See you all there.

ATB,
Alta

In case anyone hasn't looked at this benchmark.

In the Proactive interview last year Dmitry said he invested based on his benchmarking MT with the First Quantum Minerals acquisition in 2008 (Kevista). It was sold for approx. 210 million USD. Controlling for the fact FQM bought a far greater tonnage, but a far lower Pd grade that was in MT, Dmitry concluded that they had a similar value resource at MT and therefore chose to invest his 1 million in EUA. Back in 2008 the Pd value was only $400/oz which is 5.25 times lower than todays spot price of $2100/oz. In addition, MT is far far further along than the kevista mine in 2008 which adds a lot of value since buyers won’t have to spend as much time and money getting it to production.

Anyway, given that Dmitry concluded that the FQM sale was for a similar value mine to EUA, at todays prices our 1.9Moz (BEFORE FLANKS) would sell for approx. $1.1 billion ($880 million approx. 25pps). Using the same benchmarking would put a sale of 15Moz at approx. $8.2 billion ($6.6 billion to EUA approx. £1.75ps). Same benchmarking for the potential 19Moz (if that will be considered) would but a sale at $10.4 billion ($8.3 billion to EUA – approx. £2.20ps).

That’s the benchmark Dmitry used. Obviously, times have changed ant there are more recent sales to benchmark against as mentioned by the BOD (SW and NAP) but interesting to do it with the same mine Dmitry used.

Do I think we will get the £1.75 (15Moz) or the £2.20 (19Moz)? No because the buyer will need to factor in the costs that the above calculations do not. No matter how much value we think we have, the buyer will want their profits.

Do I think we can get over £1?. Yes (especially if the 19 Moz is factored in) because the above benchmark is just for the MT mine. We have other very valuable assets that also need to be added on plus the potential to just wait another 6 months for more licences / develop the mine.

Will still stick to my 80 – 120p valuation as the resource in the ground, as far as the RNS to date are concerned, has not changed. Several bags from here even for those in after suspension.

Wkworld, I know the feeling. I think we were about to get a bid then NN saw Sam bought back and withdrew their offer. B*****d!

On the grounds of the RNS stating a formal sale process is underway.

Hence a weighted average will likely be used when calculating Pd. When modelling future Pd values they will likely include a bunch of parameters into their model to account for the obvious variables but also latent variables (e.g. like Bayes theorem or LCA/LCGM). Should give a fairly reliable estimation, particularly now that they can use the Covid_19 drop into any models. World shuts down and it dropped to $1550 for a single day before rallying north again. Shows strength in Pd for the PI and BOD but also useful parameter for any stats model for representing a worst case. Likelihood of alternative metals etc will also be calculated and added as parameters.

However, even if we were to use the worst case of $1550/ oz during the beginning of covid and global uncertainty it would still value our 15Moz at close to $20 billion minus AISC or $24 billion for the 19Moz. No matter what way this is considered it can only be upside for the investor. That includes the event of a no sale. That would just mean we wait another year to develop the mine and go it alone.

Scenario A - bidders model likelihoods and parameters into Pd valuation and make fair offer (most likely) = shareholder profit.

Scenario B - bidders refuse to accept that Pd is a good metal and only offer based on the one day Covid drop Pd value (least likely) = shareholder profit.

Scenario C - offer unfair and we go it alone = shareholder profit (albeit we would have to wait longer).

No matter how you look at it there is profit to be made. Only difference between the scenarios is how soon we get our money.