Member Info for AlmaCogan

The only way that Garbled is "shorting" anything is through spread bets on IG Index where he has often declared he has an account and frequently informs us of the IG price spreads. It's his money and he can do what he wants with it, but holding a 42p short at 90p/80p/75p will bring an enormous margin call and overnight rollover costs, so he is hoping for a price crash to recover his margin call. That won't stop the endless rollovers. It's a costly strategy to nowhere.

As for shorting physical shares, which is seemingly impossible for a small AIM listed oiler, I am reminded of the predicament of Premier Oil, where the bondholders believed they might lose their money and took out parallel shorts to cover potential bond losses and that drove Premier into extinction, but the bondholders had a zero sum situation and lost nothing . Durrant moaned and groaned about it, but it became Harbour's lunch.

I don't think Garbled is in the same league as Premier's bondholders. I stand to be corrected on that ⚠️

On another observation, it's clear that the seven sisters of AI cannot decide whether the Falklands are, or are not , party to the Energy Charter Treaty. So much for burning 2.5% of UK energy supplies in server factories which seem unable to answer a simple question like that. Perhaps a phone call to the FCDO would elicit the answer without dumping a thousand tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere?

Here’s a Devil’s advocate view.

After today’s attack on Hamas in Doha, and the accompanying destruction of the towers in Gaza City, I wonder how long before we see a routine pivot by Trump who then decides to impose trade sanctions on the Netanyahu regime in Israel in order to bring him to heel. The White House seems pi55ed off by this after Trump seemingly organised the meeting that was bombed.

Should that happen, the Sea Lion project would suddenly encounter great supply chain problems and finance issues.

Anyone with an acute perception of risk might see a black swan approaching the lake through his telescope.

It’s a nightmare, but even thinking about it might persuade risk averse investors to walk, so explaining the SP decline.

Discuss, please....

On 31st July, Moody said : "Based on data contained in the senior debt lending case, it is currently envisaged that the second phase, and all subsequent phases, will be self-financing using excess cashflows once Phase 1 is on production."

No need to speculate about this.

"However scratching my head a little on how RKH funds phase 2+ if 85% of the cash generation goes to repay Navitas loan of circa $200m (which will take approx 8 months) alongside senior debt amortisation and interest."

The Navitas loan is not repaid alongside the the senior debt amortisation. The latter commences one year after first oil is produced

"PS - I cant find Paul Drayton on the "Home" poster search section, maybe someone else can try looking him up, in case I am mistaken."

He's still there, last post on SEA a couple of days ago. Probably enjoying the September sunshine at his favourite watering hole in the Lake District.

"Navitas are required to fund $707m of the $800m equity to first oil, plus a $50m deposit to FIG.

Yes you are right, but that is because of inter party loan arrangements, which don't alter the overall 65/35 equation.

This special general meeting of the limited partners in Navitas Petroleum LP on Sunday at 15.00 in Tel Aviv is actually a very simple meeting. I have downloaded and read the meeting notice and the voting form. It is intended to be a largely electronic meeting with voting forms and proxy forms submitted ahead of time. They probably already know there is a majority in favour.

There is only one item on the agenda, and that is to approve the issue of 9 million new participation units and allow the placement of such units directly to some Israeli institutions (called a non-uniform placing), plus a so-called shelf offering which sounds like an open offer. This meeting and resolution vote is required by the terms of their limited partnership agreement. The money is likely already committed, otherwise they wouldn’t be bothering to legitimize it.

It is interesting that the voting form has a default “YES” box highlighted. The likelihood of failure is vanishingly small.

Just addressing ‘buzzthomas’ view that cash and receivables do not constitute ‘equity’, I would point out that RKH is using proceeds from Ombrina Mare arbitration and annulment insurance as part of their equity cash contribution to the senior debt arrangement. In any case shareholder equity is a company’s net worth and the total amount available for return to shareholders after paying off all debts, not selling new shares, as he suggests.

So, any existing cash or surplus Shenandoah receivables form part of the Navitas equity contribution of $520 million as their 65% share of the $800 million project equity after raising around $300 million from their imminent special meeting.

I stand behind my post last night that everything is in place for funding Sea Lion development. The upcoming RKH general meeting to approve a $25 million conditional placing plus open offer is a walkover, with $100 million placing funds already in escrow.

Come on, £1 tomorrow!

EG777

Check in again at 10.00 pm

Does anyone (other than buzz) think it will reach £1 tomorrow if I post another funding analysis?

💰💰💰

At 85p

For the funding doubters; let’s piece all this together.

The funding required for the first oil has been declared by the operator Navitas at $1.8 billion.

$1billion senior debt is being organised by a “ well known household name”, and an international lead bank, which sounds very much like Barclays, which is an openly pro-Israel bank with a significant corporate presence in Tel Aviv.

The senior debt is being arranged in two parallel loans, $650M for Navitas and $350M for RKH both of which are secured on the future reserves of the respective JV partners at Sea Lion. This of course requires FIG approval as the licensing authority before general election purdah on 31 Oct. These loans will be held in a joint venture account and drawn down as required in the future after equity cash is expended. Each JV partner must repay its own parallel loan over 7 years, commencing 12 months after first oil is produced.

A precondition of the loans is that the remaining $800M project finance is funded from equity participation by the partners, so:

35% by RKH = $280M

65% by Navitas = $520M

RKH is raising $140M by way of placings and open offer, so they are $140M short, which Navitas are contractually bound to lend them that amount, interest free, from their own placing and open offer, as mentioned in their TASE notification (To be agreed in principle on Sunday 7 Sept). This placing is to Israeli institutions who seemingly have already agreed to take part.

Navitas is proposing to issue only 9 million new participation units worth around $300M through placing and offer. So, the balance of their fundraising ($160M) is to bolster their own cash reserve, taking regard of existing and future cash flow from Shenandoah, to $520M, so assuring Barclays that it all hangs together.

On that basis, FID is assured, is it not?

Amortisation of the senior debt facilties commences 12 months from 1st oil and runs for 7 years.

It did file its accounts but they were lies

Rectifying an erroneous RNS?

....Wouldn't , wood he, not ever?

I expect he will ask for the name of the HQ to be changed to The House of the Rising Sun

"Oil is found in the minds of men" and it certainly was the case at Nelson"

Richard Hardman CBE, Chair of the Petroleum Society of Great Britain, once told me that the Gulf Oil exploration well logs at Nelson showed the oil bearing Forties sandstones in plain sight but Gulf hadn't interpreted them correctly and after a bit of seismic for Enterprise it was a complete certainty without drilling a hole.

I fail to see the difference between using AGR well services for the well management of the exploration and appraisal wells and using Elemental for the same service on development wells. All operators use well management contractors, otherwise they wouldn't exist.

"The $23.5 Million would also take them well past the 3% TR-1 triggering territory at the current market cap."

ZYX, all the placee money is in escrow. No shares have been bought, so no TR1

"This would surely be RNS worthy if they are taking a stake via the placing?"

At the moment, the firm placing money is in an escrow savings account, so none of the placees have a stake until the FID is announced. So they (or Delek) may well have been invited to participate under strong advice from Tadmor.

"if you can't be bothered it's better to go to Ladbrokes"

At least with Ladbrokes, you know the odds, you can see the runners on live TV, there's a commentary from the horse trainers, the going is made clear, and the horses don't have a "tight hole". And there's no damn RNS after the race is over.