Member Info for allah4uk

I already mentionned this company in another thread. Lumira has two EUA approvals.

GDR has the same problem : management can't seem able to sell their products.

"You're just trolling", "You're deramping", "You're not even invested !!!"... all the usual, baseless excuses which are symptomatic of cognitive dissonance.

When facing reality is too painful, because it means admitting that mistakes have been made, it's so much easier to insult those who don't agree with you.

Lloyd88 so are you.

bigbench : Yet another sad victim of cognitive dissonance. Reality hits you hard, and since you're financially and emotionally invested, you can't control your anger anymore, so you lash out at people who confront your baseless affirmations with logical counter-arguments.

But your sorry interventions are at least useful in a way : they show other investors why they should remain critical, lest they become like you.

Magzy : Yes, absolutely, you should go on, till the logical end of your argument : you've got the partnerships (and they're excellent on paper) but where are the sales ?

The SP won't move up - or more precisely won't move up in a solid and sustainable manner - until conclusive sales figures have been announced.

That's precisely why you should demand answers from the CEO, who seems to be failing both his engineers and his shareholders.

Lloyd88 : My understanding is that LumiraDx is headquartered in the UK.

But even if it weren't the case, the EUA has been filed by LumiraDx UK Ltd, i.e. by a British company.

kd82 : if you consider that browsing several different boards is a waste of time, you're probably wasting opportunities to brighten your worldview and sharpen your mind.

Magzy : you should worry about the people who are invested and talk nonsense. Because it's these very people who can make you lose money. Collective delusion is both tragic and comical, a sad sight all around.

People like Magsy - with an S - and Lp160606 are the types of investors I respect, because although they are/were invested in a given company, they still retain their critical thinking.

drlong : I gave an example two posts above yours.

Lloyd88 : LumiraDx UK Ltd has validated two coronavirus tests with the FDA.
By the way, four different British companies have already got the green light for their tests in India.

Magsy : healthy questions. And I think they bring us back to the management : if they didn't have sufficient in-house competence to pass the administrative hurdles, have they sought proper external help ? Which measures did they undertake to mitigate that issue ?
GDR investors would do well to bring up these points during the next General Assembly.

Cognitive dissonance is one hell of a drug. Stay deluded if that's what you wish for.

Lloyd88 : I'm simplytrying to explain why many here, including you, suffering from a psychological process known as cognitive dissonance.

GDR has tried to obtain the required certificates for months, but for some reason hasn't been able to. So you came up with explanations such as "complexities" and "red tape". But that doesn't tally with the fact that competitors are breezing through the exact same process. Yet you refuse to recognise this reality, and the possibility that the problems doesn't come from the US/Indian authorities - but from your own management.

Magsy, I mostly follow companies comparable in size and geography to Novacyt, so those are focused on the European markets.

This being said, companies from various countries (incl. Italy, China, Switzerland, etc) are granted an EUA, and I'll pick the example of Quidel.

It is notable in that this Quidel has been granted EUA's for corona tests in March, then May and most recently in October. That's not just one, but three authorisations obtain across the corona timeline, from back when the market for tests was empty, to right now when it's pretty crowded.

longtermholder14 - Yes, I see many other people who've got no idea why this company is stuck, so they invoke "administrative complexities", even though other companies successfully completed the same required steps towards commercialisation.

There is an extremely strong degree of cognitive dissonance at play. And this is the same phenomenon that leads to investor forums being mostly echo chambers - fair minds are shouted down by the majority of believers (who, by definition, do not possess concrete clues to throw at their opponents - just non-scientific beliefs).

"The lack of news flow around approvals is out of our control."

I keep reading this assertion, yet other companies seem to be quicker when dealing with the exact same approval process. How does that compute ?

Management really is GDR's weakest point. The people in charge don't seem able to commercialise the promising products that their competent engineers have developed.

I thought you already had the Indian approval but it seems that's not the case yet.

In that case, since you already got the CE mark, your CEO would do well to release some sales figures for Europe. That'd be better than nothing IMHO.

But where is the sales RNS ?

The real questions are : how long have you been waiting for consequential news, and how much longer can you afford to wait ?

Yep, it's pretty funny to witness all these people selling their shares for no good reason.

But there is no indication that most of them intend to buy GDR. At this point it's just wishful thinking.

I'm afraid we don't share the same definition of sadness and insecurity, Dadsbatty.

What I find really sad and insecure is the fact that there are individuals who, out of thorough delusion and bitterness regarding their investment, will readily smear other companies. Even worse, they rarely own up to their lies. They're just too far gone for that.

Thus you, and all the people who upvoted you (unless you upvoted yourself), are extremely sad an insecure in my book.

Anyway, as promised, Im coming back to assess the bold claim that Novacyt would be incapable of releasing in time the products it had announced.

Let's remind ourselves what grimshady said last August :

*********************
grimshady - 23 Aug '20
"NCYT are having to redesign there (sic) test because it is ****......... they have months of RND then months of trials and approvals ahead of them."

grimshady - 23 Aug '20
"They have a huge job to reinvent there test to look at 2nd gene to be more accurate ect. then they have approvals to get through and trials ect"

grimshady - 24 Aug '20
"Fact clinical trials will be much more stringent than before purely and simply because there are other alternatives now."
*********************

And now for a dose of reality :

- 2-gene test : CE-marked, launched on time.
- Antibody test : CE-marked, launched on time.
- Multiplex panel : CE-marked, launched even before the expected date.

I'm not even mentionning the current share price since it's beside the point of this exercice.

Will grimshady have the decency to apologise for this gratuitous slander of Novacyt ?

FRESH, GREAT ARTICLE COURTESY OF DOH85 @ AVCT BOARD : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/health/coronavirus-saliva-tests.html

"E25BIO AND ORASURE, TWO COMPANIES PURSUING RAPID AT-HOME CORONAVIRUS TESTS, HAVE ABANDONED EFFORTS TO USE SALIVA IN THEIR PRODUCTS. THEIR TESTS, WHICH DETECT PIECES OF CORONAVIRUS PROTEINS CALLED ANTIGENS, WILL FOR NOW RELY ON SHALLOW NOSE SWABS INSTEAD."

TOO DAYMN HARD 2 USE SALIVA FOR THESE KINDS OF TESTS. NOT ENOUGH ANTIGENS TO WORK WITH AND A LOT OF VARIABILITY ACROSS THE POPULATION.

SO NOW YOU UNDERSTAND WHY, DESPITE ALREADY MANUFACTURING LFT TESTS FOR YEARS AND ALSO MASTERING RTC-PCR CORONA TESTS, NOVACYT HAS YET TO COMBINE BOTH TECHNOLOGIES AND RELEASE A GRAAL, RAPID SALIVA TEST WHICH ANYONE COULD USE AT HOME.

THEY MAY NEVER COMMERCIALISE SUCH A MAGICAL TEST, AND THAT'S FINE.
NOVACYT AIN'T THE TYPE OF COMPANY TO RELEASE A BOTCHED TEST - NOR WOULD I WANT THEM TO RELEASE A HALF-BAKED PRODUCT AS A SHAREHOLDER.

THEY MIGHT TASK A DEDICATED PERSONNEL AT MICROGEN TO WORK ON HYPER-SENSITIVE LFT TO WORK AROUND THE CURRENT ISSUES, BUT MY PREDICTION IS THAT THEIR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TO REFINE THEIR RT-PCR PRODUCTS IN ORDER TO HIT THE 30 MIN MARK. THEY'VE HINTED AS MUCH IN THEIR LAST FEW RNS, AND THAT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE.

ONE OF THE UPCOMING PRODUCTS IS A TEST FOR TRANSPLANTS.

TRANSPLANTS = VALUABLE NICHE MARKET = HIGH MARGINS