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If Polygon take a 30%+ stake they will have to make an offer based on £2+ but based on where we are they should be able to buy another 20% at these prices and then the rest is fair game.
Most probable outcome is that they hover around 29% until Activ-2 news
At these prices Polygon would be foolhardy not to accumulate up to 29.9%. However, I believe they could then buy loads more and end up closer to 40-50% and then make a TR-1.
The value was always in Activ-2 not the Sprinter trial...
Reckon Polygon will hold at 29.99% so they don't have to make a formal bid until Activ-2 is in.
Either that or they will have a really big push at these low prices and get to a much higher percentage and then make a bid (so paying out to less shareholders)
The Takeover Panel
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code
Polygon will have analysed the data and comments from Synairgen and concluded that if it truly was the drugs administered in the hospitals that led to SNG being less effective, then this is a none issue for Activ-2 as this was pre-hospitalisation.
At 30% Polygon have to make an offer for the company so watch the SP increase (they are now buying very cheaply)
Welcome, I think everyone is waiting for the CEO's vision.
Once the first plant is operational or LINDE get the EU transition grant, you will see the share price rocket, although Russia invading the Ukraine won't help.
Great post, I think a key element here is that the introduction of other drugs affected the outcome and the hope will be that the Activ-2 trial will not be effected in the same way. I think it is important to note as well that Merck got EUA from the FDA based on 30% effectiveness
The hope must be that as Activ-2 is pre-hospital the results will mimic the P2 results which will not be effected like this trial. Will be interesting to see the actual data behind the sprinter trial and if the other remedies removed the need for SNG
MrCosts we can only hope that as Activ-2 is pre hospitalisation the results will be better. I think RM's comment was that the results reflect the use of SNG with other medications and hence the results not being what they expected...
Hi Andy, I kind of understand your logic but we are close to P3 results now and based on some of the larger trades, I am expecting another TR-1. If there is one this weekend, which wouldn't be unusual based on the low buy prices, I think you will be snookered.
Hi Matterhorn, there is nothing stopping a deal by a PCA or PDMR but there are rules around the CEO / Directors allowing this and they basically say they must not be aware of any market sensitive news at the time of approving this.
That would suggest they did not have sight of the P3 figures at that time. However, they could have had sight the very next day!
Its all about insider trading and the fact that people generally share information with their spouses / partners.