The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Have written off my investment in this company and consigned the shares to the "Also ran" file. That said, nobody will be more pleased to be proved wrong than me if, during the next few months, HE1 turns around and the sp heads north. So please, no deramping accusations from the usual suspects.
On the subject of progress, I thought I would add the following quote from the 6 month return statement " The Rukwa Project has been de-risked by the 2023/24 drilling campaign, which has identified a working helium system." I find it fascinating that those in charge seek to identify a "working helium system" but, very specifically, do not include the word "commercial". This either suggests that the company had not had time to do the calculations or has already done so and does not feel able to define Rukwa as a "commercial working helium system". Off course the usual suspects will be up in arms about such negativity but the reality is that LB has, in parallel, gone into her shell again, as acknowledged and identified by other posters.
Is this a huge con?
Photo, Agree with much of what you posted. PB does appear to have become more cautious about what he says to the market, given his verbal disasters of the past. However, we all know that in the investment world "no news is generally not good news" which gives me a slight shiver on what is happening at the drill platform. Of course, I hope I am wrong and the rest of this year and next are when all our patience finally pays off. That said, this is what posters have been posting for several years which just leaves a crumb of doubt about progress.
As for PB not having any control over the sp, I would comment that TXP's interaction with the MMs and the IIs over the years has been both limited and amateur to say the least and could have been developed far more professionally. That is one of the prime reasons why the sp is where it is, there is simply a lack of large shareholders to exert big ticket trading. Notwithstanding, it cannot be long before TXP emerges on the radar screens of the herd which should be good news.
Johno, you are, in your desire to prove otherwise, right. However, my point is that, despite the good news over the past year, the share price is now trading at just 55% of last August's high of 93p and 29% of the 175p high.
Maybe you have an opinion as to why?
Ayecuramba, I hope you are right and good luck in your investment. However, my concern remains that for some considerable time now, going back to first gas from Cascadura and and before, people have been making such positive comments, only to have their hopes dashed. A year ago today, the sp was 64p and, on the back of Cacsadura progress, climbed to 93p in early August. Since then, despite Cascadura completion and the drilling of further wells on the discovery, the sp steadily declined to 40p on 5 February. It was only the announcement of the signing of an increased term loan agreement that resulted in the sp recovering to 51p but the reality is that, despite Cascadura, other wells and increased loan availability, the sp remains sits at just 55% of the August high. There is little logic for this scenario and one almost gets the feeling that the market is being controlled for one reason or another.
That said, as pointed out in my earlier post, I don't think the BoD of TXP has the commercial savvy to deal with this issue. It may be technically proficient but from an investor/investment perspective (remembering that all directors are shareholders) it has failed.
Supersport, I did get some cheap shares but sold when they hit 175p, making a tidy profit. That was about 3+ years ago and I decided to get back in over the past 30 months. My average is now closer to 80p so hoping that the 90-100p targets are met this year, if not early next.
Supersport, Agree. However, it is the lack of interest from the IIs and MMs as well as short term players which is why the shares are so thinly traded and why the sp is where it is. The challenge is many fold. Historical promises of giant reservoirs and walls of cash which never materialised, the desire by some brokers to value the company based on return on capital and other relatively inappropriate measures and the perceived lack of a concerted campaign by the company to get this daily improving story in front of some of the big investment funds and institutions.
As a long tern holder, I have found this to be one of the most frustrating companies I have invested into and I beginning to form the view that the board, while technically sound, does not possess the financial/commercial nouse to sell the company to the market. When you consider where this sp has been - 175p - it is quite laughable to consider that it now trades at over 70% less notwithstanding achievements over the past 12-18 months and the potential of what lies in the future. There are broker targets of 90-100p and I have written to Malcy twice for an explanation as to why he has a target of 200p, but got no response. Probably because, like us, he is puzzled by what has occurred over this period.
Agree corpse. Yet again, focus placed on something which should otherwise be considered housekeeping. That said, it is clear that the company has faced issues in getting this facility increase (ca 4 months to negotiate a loan term sheet?) and my question is why the company is dealing with a local bank and not a major international oil and gas bank?
Your point on buyers is relevant too. The market, in the form of the MM's and big II's, has not bought this story yet and share price progress will remain laboured until this is the case. Frankly, given the number of presentations, broadcast or printed, you have to ask yourself if the company is presenting itself in the best possible light. If I was on the BoD I would certainly be asking questions about lack of perception in the market.
Supersport, Agree. PB has much to answer for in terms of his ridiculous historical statements. Hopefully, he will probably be proved right over time but the reality is that he was promising walls of cash and giant reservoirs years ago. Further, there is just one month left for the company to confirm agreement on the increased loan facility, although, hopefully, the increasing cash flow will limit the requirement for such.
As a sizeable long term holder, I am hoping the fortunes of the sp improve for the better during 2024 and beyond. However, let's be honest, it has been a rocky road since the highs of 170p plus a few years ago.
I continue to believe that the the historical over-optimistic predictions of PB has created a legacy within the market of not believing the story until it actually unfolds, hence why the sp, despite all the positives announced recently, continues to trawl the 40/low 50p range. Talk of a doubling of the sp in the next few months is founded (based on risked NAV) but, given the experience since early 2022, will probably only occur if and when the predictions come to fruition.
Johnoxxx, Try not to be a prat in everything your do in life, including your rants on this board. I have raised a perfectly legitimate question which is ratified/supported by other posters who clearly feel the same. For the record, the market is currently showing a 9.26% decline.
For the sp to slip ca 8% this morning on the back of nothing, or does the market know something private investors don't?
You have to conclude that TXP appears to have been singled out for such treatment as a result of historical optimism which, to a large degree (walls of cash, giant reservoirs, etc), has so far been unproven.
Haddy68, While this increase is welcome, it was never going to skyrocket due to i) the continuous unfulfilled legacy of optimism and expectation of big things to come over the past 3 years and ii) the lack of of big investors, without which the shares will continue to be thinly traded. What is needed here is for one or two of the thundering herd to take note of the company.
During the last 33 months there have been all sorts of positive presentations and optimistic announcements, Cascacdura coming on line and other potential reservoirs announced. Yet, during that time, the share price has declined by almost 80% and currently stands at just one-third of its estimated NAV. Why?
FCFY, You are right but the figures are not exactly the wall of cash so brashly projected by PB. Further, Cascadura production has been lower than the lowest predicted rate and the "incredible potential " of Royston was summarily consigned to the dustbin as it was "not commercial". It is these unfulfilled predictions which have turned off the institutions and brokers.
The board of TXP has a fiduciary duty to protect the interest of its shareholders. Having a market cap of about 33% of the NAV does not look as if the board i job.
Technically, the company appears well served. However, in most other respects, not least its PR profile and market perception, there are real shortcomings and I think that the BoD should be paying far more attention to thisuch matters than appears to be the case.
Johno, We obviously view TXP, if not investing in general, differently. The share price is now at 40p, a drop of almost 5% on the back of what PB said yesterday. This is what has happened time and time again after an RNS from the company or a presentation from PB. Do you really think this is acceptable?
The reality is that the analysts and the market in general have grown tired of "walls of cash", "mighty reservoirs" and other deluded and unsubstantiated comments made by PB in the past and this price drop is a classic reminder of his history .
Yes, the company reflects great prospects but, unless it has the industrial wherewithal and financial capacity to develop them, it will continue to drift along as we have seen over the past 2-3 years,
As for the enlarged credit facility, the company has been in discussions on this since, possibly, late October/early November. Yet, here we are some 2 1/2 months later and it has not even received a term sheet from Republic Bank. Even accounting for T&T's mañana approach to just about everything, this just does not add up. I know from a career in financing that this is unusual.
Others comment about everything coming right over time. Just to remind us all, we were making the same comment 3 years ago.