Member Info for aligator

Ayecuramba, I am pleased to confirm that I had and still have a lot of negativity towards PB and TXP because of its historical abject failures, many of which could have been avoided. Accordingly, I will continue to decry the company's activities when appropriate until they get something right. That said, I am as happy with sp increases as all other shareholders (fyi I own almost 1 million shares).

John, simply because the entire sector was up courtesy of the Iran situation. I don't need to post daily like others...

Johno, It is actually an honest question. I am not a market expert and was hoping to get some experienced response, not another broadside such as yours.

One for the market experts. Having noticed the 12.50p ceiling hit about 6/7 times yesterday, why a 14% drop today on the back of no announcements? Could it be leaked negative news about CR-3 flow testing etc?

Quite right Johno, my error!

LSE now trailing TSX in price it would seem.

TXP trading at 22.5c on TSX, up over 28%. That is close to 17p. what is going on here - why the disconnect to London?

Ross, But I would rather these words than anything negative. Indeed, this could indicate that the flow and pressure testing has gone to plan which would be a considerable plus.

Stas20, Then just filter the person.

ps 'creepy' or 'fixated' are smasher's words, not ,hime.

Smasher, You either agree or disagree with someone's views. I think someone who consistently denigrates a poster rather than filter them, is more negative / boring / misleading / fixated and a bit creepy than anyone...

Agree sturm. The family is worth ca £500 million

Never stas. I would miss your anger....

Stag1974, Purebond paid 11p a share for 50,000,000 shares for a total investment of £5.5m. At one stage, the value of its holding was down to ca £3.5m , literally a few weeks after its investment. Even at 9.25p, it is still ca £0.9m underwater. I cannot imagine Purebond is happy about this.

Bhupendra Kansagra's appointment to the TXP board was, in all probability, a condition of the investment, as opposed to TXP seeking to appoint an o&g specialist with experience in T&T. That said, he and his brother Ramesh have been very successful in their other business activities which do include oil and gas distribution in Africa.

Stas, QED! In layman terms I have proved my point with your utterings.

Sturm, I presume you mean a 9 figure market cap?

Johno, What I am saying is that, because of the company's poor history in achieving targets, a "neutral" result will be considered positive but its impact on the sp will be limited. My view, and I stress that word, is that a neutral result will positively impact the sp but only modestly. A 20-40p range suggested by Sturm within 6 months would require an increase in the sp of ca 200-400%. I simply cannot see this being achieved with a neutral result. I believe that 200-400% would require CR-3 results to be significantly in excess of predictions.

That said, if TXP can deliver on CR-3 and other objectives through 2026, logic would suggest that the sp could move to 32p and beyond, perhaps even approaching 50p and higher. Clearly, that's what I want to see.

Sturm, Fair comments but I would ask, if you don't feel that broker valuations are aligned with analysts, why are broker targets only 32p?

Stas, As I said, you need to man up and stop acting like some crusader seeking to obliterate those who don't agree with you.

Sturm, Happy to respond. Firstly, to point out that these are my educated views on a company I have now followed for ca 5 years. Secondly, are you trying to say that the company's past failures to achieve stated objectives - drilling, reserves, takeovers, capital raises, etc - don't have a bearing on analysts' and brokers' valuations? The clear answer is yes they do. That is why TXP's market cap (ca$34m) is only ca 10% - YES, 10% - of the $315m NPV of discounted, after tax reserves. Otherwise, logic would dictate that the sp would be considerably higher, even more than broker targets or higher.

I am a sizeable shareholder of TXP and want nothing more then the sp to achieve its potential (which would suggest 90-100p based on the 10% factor). However, how many times have we been at these junctures only to have yet another problem, failure or otherwise announced which has decimated the sp. That, simply put, is why I will remain negative about TXP until PB and his cronies can deliver.

Stas, You simply need to man up and recognise the reality of TXP's history and its impact on the sp. Yes, you are entitled to your views, as we all are, but your continual "jam tomorrow" stance is uneducated and unprofessional.

Sturm/Johno, a neutral result is one which merely confirms anticipated flow rates and pressures. It will have limited positive effect on the sp whereas anything negative will see the sp plummet.

In essence, because of the company’s history, the results will have to be considerably in excess of expectations to see any upward movement in the sp

Sturm, There is a clear discrepancy/disconnect between the NPV of TXP's 2p reserves - $315m after tax and 10% discount - and its market cap - ca $35m, a factor of almost 10x.

Broker/analyst research is of the view that the market is discounting the share price by such a factor due to the disappointing revisions to Cascadura Block B and the problems at Cascadura 4.

This why the results from the CR-3 flow testing are binary. They will need to be outstanding to see the sp reduce the 10x valuation factor. If they are neutral or disappointing expect an sp of 5p.