Member Info for Alibi

The correct term is damp squib, a squib being what we used to call a banger, the firework. Damp => won't work. The damp squid is a common misunderstanding but in this case is I think used as a bit of a pun, due to someone tongue in cheek suggesting tat the FPSO might be sunk by a giant squid, or a Kraken. Apologies if this is explaining the obvious.

There was a great cartoon I saw just before Xmas, with King Wenceslas looking out at someone correcting the grammar on a signpost (cannae remember what was written on it) and saying "Yonder pedant, who is he?"

Maybe suggesting that AM has to set off when the tide is high due to shallow water in the vicinity of the entrance to the firth.

Regarding ropes: I would have thought that manufacturers would hold a stock of ropes/cables of various strengths. Surely it is not the case that each rope ordered has to be made from scratch? I assume ropes are rated as, for example, 1 tonne, 2 tones, 5 tonnes etc.

Is it really the case that you have to specify an exact load and then get someone to make one to spec? Seems a strange way to do business. I could understand it if it was an exceptionally heavy load being lifted but in engineering terms I doubt it is out of the ordinary. Such loads must be lifted regularly all over the place in an industry like oil.

BTW I would reiterate: this broken rope is a minor issue and easily sorted. Luckily no damage done to people or equipment. The hook up procedure seems to have been more or less proven to work (they reached the point where the latches were about to be locked on) and so in reality the whole thing has been derisked significantly by the weekend activities even if it didn't quite get to completion. Just relax and wait - For aw that and aw that, it's coming yet for aw that...

998Sport, that may be the case. However they know the weight of the buoy and should be able to work out the maximum load in the lifting rope taking into account the weight of the various bits holding the buoy down. I would imagine there will be a factor of safety of 2 or more on the applied load, and everything else will be designed with plenty of spare capacity. Without pre-empting a forensic examination of the rope, I note it was possibly damaged last time round, so the first thing to check would be if the damaged repaired section was where it failed.

Don't know where that duplicate post came from...

Given that the rope appears to have been the weakest link, doubling its strength (or just increasing it by 10%, 20% or whatever, maybe based on loads imposed during lifting, which I assume they will have monitored during the process) would reduce the risk of any recurrence. Nobody is suggesting that the crane or whatever lifting mechanism is used doesn't have the capacity - it's just the rope that broke. I'm a professional Chartered Engineer (not in the oil industry, civil and structural is my field) and in my many years of experience I have found that building in a bit of overkill is rarely harmful.

Given that the rope appears to have been the weakest link, doubling its strength (or just increasing it by 10%, 20% or whatever, maybe based on loads imposed during lifting, which I assume they will have monitored during the process) would reduce the risk of any recurrence. Nobody is suggesting that the crane or whatever lifting mechanism is used doesn't have the capacity - it's just the rope that broke. I'm a professional Chartered Engineer (not in the oil industry, civil and structural is my field) and in my many years of experience I have found that building in a bit of overkill is rarely harmful.

I had decided not to buy any more, but with this dip, overdone in my view, and a (brief) spike in the PMO SP, I took a rapid decision to sell PMO and buy HUR. May well just be a short term trade, which is something I rarely do, but a broken rope doesn't mean the oil has disappeared. MMs trying to panic people here I suspect, and the fact that my latest purchase is already in profit (and more so considering PMO has now dropped back a bit) is reassuring.

Probably goig to be a depay of a couple of weeks but the hook up process appears to have been tested to the point there they fasten the latches, so as near as dammit proved to work.

The problem with the rope sounds to me like the way I always try to tie up my xmas tree box with string and invariably it breaks half way up the stairs. Moral of the story is to allow a buggeration factor in your calcs for mission-critical items. Having a wire rope twice the breaking strength would be money well spent for the replay.

I also topped up on the dip today, 12,500 more. That's my lot as HUR is just over 60% of my portfolio now. Just sit back and wait now.

Hi Albi,

Yes, the name thing is potentially confusing! I shouldn't really complain about a nearly 54% profit on Faroe, and the funds released from that should do at least as well here in HUR as they would have done if Faroe had continued, so it might be a good thing in the end. Probably even greater potential here in fact. I am slightly wary about the amount of HUR that I now hold (about 118,000) but I'm well in profit and will be keeping a careful eye on it, possibly with some derisking along the way if the SP rises.

Regarding future prospects, I think Faroe is a pointer. Takeover has been forced through today at well under fair value as institutions prefer a bird in the hand than a longer term approach. Same happened with Emerald Energy a few years ago. I suspect HUR will be a target for a low ball takeover once the concept is demonstrated to work. However the sheer volumes involved may make it a more competitive bidding process. I sold my Faroe shares today, rather reluctantly as the low price irks me, but I've put a large chunk into HUR as I feel the weather issues, which are temporary and short term, are still weighting slightly on the SP, and I expect the hook up to lead to at least a slight recovery, with successful flow being the catalyst for further upward movement. The sky's the limit for the value of HUR with success, but don't expect to reach the sky before some predator starts firing ground to air misslies at the company (in price terms only I hasten to add. £2 would be OK for me although happy to get higher than that.

Sold (reluctantly) at 160p for a 53% profit. Looking at the volume traded today, coming up for 50 million, it's clear that they're going to get the deal over the line. Mixed emotions: a profit is a profit but I feel as if I have been mugged. Daylight robbery considering this was over 170p not long ago.

This thread will probably have a use by date on it now as FPM won't exist in the next few weeks or months. Been nice knowing you all. Good luck.

What happens if you DON'T sell? Is it just a matter of waiting until you get notification that the takeover has succeeded? I'm on the verge of selling as it looks like DNO have got enough shares now. Very disappointed with the takeover price but seen this before with Emerald Energy. My averga ehere is about 104p and I have a fair amount so it's a good profit, but should have been at least twice as much profit had we got even close to a fair price.

Ii was having a look at the number of shares in issue and the volume of trades to see if DNO are likely to get anywhere near their required 57.5%. Something like 373 million shares in issue, and 57.5% of that is 214 million in round figures. The last figure of shares owned by or favourable to DNO was given as 43.1%, i.e. 154 million. That would imply that to get to the target, they would need to acquire an additional 60 million shares over the next 9 trading days (including today). That's about 6.7 million a day. Not sure what the current volumes are (and not all trades will be buys by DNO or others friendly to them) but if my figures are correct (big ???? there...) doesn't look likely they will get there.

What is the procedure here? I'm certainly not accepting their derisory offer, but what happens now that they have made it "mandatory"? At what point do we not get any choice in the matter? Is it 90% held or controlled by DNO? Is changing it to mandatory of any significance to us PIs?

Broke SNP Government? Aye right. With respect, I think I probably know more about Scotland than you do, and the nonsense that you read in the Daily Mail and Express is way off the mark. We will do just fine. Why do you think Westminster is so desperate to hang on to Scotland if we're such a financial burden? Shouldn't be hard to work it out.

Anyway, not going to clog up this forum. We'll all be better off when our ship comes in, and not long to wait for that. Hope you all have a great Christmas and a Happy New Year (despite the disaster that is Brexit).

An independence referendum is going to happen no matter what the end result of the Brexit shambles. The way Scotland has been treated has opened a lot of eyes. We voted strongly to remain, but our opinion has been ignored totally, and the compromise solutions offered by the Scottish Government, customs union and single market in particular, have been dismissed out of hand by Westminster. However as far as HUR are concerned, independence is going to do them no harm whatsoever and in fact having a supportive government that values the oil sector in our economy, rather than the charlatans that run the UK, is likely to be a positive - although by that time I would think that HUR will have been taken over, hopefully at multipes of today's SP.

Is it not the case that if the 152p offer isn't accepted by 02/01, DNO have to go away and not come back for 12 months? It would be ludicrous if anyone accepted that offer when the SP is actually higher than the offer price at the moment. Best outcome is a counter-offer I think.

Far better to tell DNO to feck off so that we can enjoy the benefits of Faroe's ongoing development. A much higher sale price is likely to be available in the short to medium term. Anyone who sells out at this level is clearly a complete moron. If DNO come back at 250p then we can maybe talk, although my preference would be for a bidding war won by someone else. Why should be miss out to solve DNO's problems?