Member Info for Alfacomp

Nick - if as I suspect the vast majority of Atlas warrants have been pre-sold to feed a Market Maker short of c. 6M following the strike ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-21st-sept-2018 ) then there will be no more than a few hundred thousand of those left.

I expect that these will be taken out very early on and then I suspect the SP will rise rapidly up past 30p.

Is this published anywhere ? as I would like to update the analyst targets ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232 )

The only reference I have is the v o x markets one.

One thing I do not understand is that if the acquisition of Sojitz's stake in vametco (up 27% because the transaction takes us from 59.1% to 75% of Vametco) explicitly only lifts our SP by 3.1p then the whole of Vametco can only contribute 14.6p of the total 34.2p valuation that they now give us.

Perhaps someone can explain this to me.

Thanks for the offer guys - I have one or two contributors who have come forward and will wait until the end of the day for any further volunteers for this only slightly top-secret mission.

I am contemplating an article on the subject of the size of the VRFB battery market, both global and SA/Africa vis-a-vis how big Bushveld Energy could be - is there anyone out there that would like to work on this with me ?

United Battery Metals 'estimated vanadium resource' of 2,700,000 pounds sounds like a lot doesn't it ? It is about 1.2 kilotonnes of contained vanadium - still sounds a lot until you compare it with what we have got

Vametco : 512 kT contained V = 425 times bigger
Brits : likely to be about the same
Mokopanes: 2028 kT = 1690 bigger

In short this is the smallest Vanadium project I have ever seen - don't worry Robert Friedland isn't involved with it, he wouldn't get out of bed for something so small, but they do make sure that his face is plastered all over their website.

swampdub - you won't be able to jump any queues by putting anything in now. You are better off piling in first thing.

The analyst tracking is here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232 though I must admit I have not yet had the time to update it with the most recent SP Angel targets. This also shows the Vanadium prices that these analysts use for their target calculations, which as you will see are on the extreme end of conservative.

Many people on this board have long complained about the extremely conservative nature of these predictions and evidently this may have been noticed as the last SP Angel update added a caveat which went along the lines of 'at present we predict 35p but if Vanadium prices stay as they are you can put one pound in front of that'. The previous SP Angel prediction also considered various scenarios which gave target prices (again we all think are conservative) of between 33.6p and 51p.

However none of these analyst targets factor in any value for our world class Vanadium resource at Mokopane, the long-hinted at plans for further brownfield expansion of Vanadium processing, our subsidiary Bushveld Energy's advanced plans for VRFB electrolyte plant, our subsidiary Lemur Resource's Imaloto coal and power station project in Madagascar and Afritin (in which we have a significant share holding) imminent Uis Tin production start up.

Bushveld is a clear growth stock and knocking on the door of the AIM100 should receive a PE ratio of 20+, as analysed here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/bushveld-minerals-vs-aim120-financial-analysis-281

This years earning should be in the region of 30-50M GBP, and that is only at 3,000 tonnes production, before increases of 3750 tpa, 5000 tpa and then 10,000 tpa come on stream. You can see now why everyone here thinks that £1 is still cheap for this share.

If you want a recent introduction to the company there is this:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/bushveld-minerals-fundamentals-aug-2018-284

If you want to understand the Vanadium market and why it is going crazy at present read this:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-4th-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-274

If you want to see presentations by the CEO go here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/bmn-video-1

If you wish to understand why it is that you may have arrived at this stock at perhaps one of the most lucrative times we have ever had, read this:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/trading-analysis-21st-sept-2018-304

I suspect that the BMN is too rich to be pigeonholed as nothing but a story stock. If it is then it is a story that no other stock can lay claim to, though some of the johnny-come-latelies have been trying to make out that they are integrated Vanadium + VRFB energy storage businesses.

We've had this for at least 4 years.

exactly Sanchez - you missed off Imaloto, oh and our holding in Afritin, which is due to start producing tin before the end of the year.

Expert - try this article here:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/the-end-of-erongo-260

Erongo was not actually warrants but a share sale overhang. Warrants will in principle only affect the SP in such a way after the shares have been created but more often than not there is strong evidence, as this time, of the shares being sold before the warrants are exercised.

I don't know if this is very naughty or just slightly naughty but either way it would allow the warrant holder to get their cash for the shares before having to actually pay for the warrants, which even if there were no other reasons would no doubt be sufficient for some to go down that route.

The other way that warrants can be used is to back a short against the stock - if the short wins then they make money and don't have to use the warrants, and can thus repeat many times over. If the short fails they simply cash out the warrant shares and move on. In this case it appears that one of the market makers took this approach before the 13th September, whilst banking on the warrants being available should they need them

as requested

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-21st-sept-2018

Thanks for all the recommends, it is very flattering.

It was the same with the guy from Aura energy at the last Vanitec meeting - it's a little bit sad really but that is capitalism for you - the best projects survive, the others don't but they take uninformed investors capital with them.

Guys - forget about about Jason Brewer. It's just another Vanadium wannabee and we have no need of them.

So what if he was "catching up" with Fortune - there is nothing to catch up on. It's the same with all the other wannabee's out there, Aura, King River Copper etc - they all realise that Fortune is one of the key players in the market and they benefit from even being seen in the same frame as him.

gigmillbaggie,

that is an interesting idea but I don't think it stacks up. Whilst there have been lots of large sells in the last 10 days many of these can be put down to inter-MM transfers, so they don't count as sells by PI's. Furthermore there has also been a significant and roughly equivalent number of buys in that time so the sells have simply been sucked up by hungry PI's .

I will provide a more accurate analysis of this balance later today to be sure, but even if one assumed that there had been 10M more sells than buys, this would only equate to 2.5M GBP, which is the profit our share of Vametco makes in less than a week so it doesn't seem necessary for YD would be brought in just to do us that kind of favour.

Fretblanket - is that really a serious question ?

You surely know that the company is making something like 75,000 dollars of profit on every tonne of Nitrovan it makes, and at 3000 tonnes per annum that is 60 tonnes a week (4.5 Million dollars a week). There is zero chance of a placing, unless Fortune has managed to buy the moon without telling anyone and they need to build a rocket and train a team of South African Astronauts. That is more likely than a placing for our expansion program.

OMG, no pressure then. I only just went to the gym and then came back and there were 73 recommends. Jeez thanks guys - looks like I better get on it. Article published at noon tomorrow so you don't have to spend every minute checking.

will cost you all more today due to the volumes.

Unless I receive 30 recommends I will be going on strike.

Uksteveg - almost definitely the day traders - but if they have any sense they will be back again on monday so what really was the point of selling up, doh !

the first bid to buy at 26.5p was for 100K - this was then cut to only 26.3p when they saw the seller was only asking 25.6p but then someone else came in and offered 26.5p for 50K shares - they ended up taking 10K shares at that price.

Hence we end up with an unrepresentative closing price. I am monitoring, naturally.

Really to be fair someone should buy them at 26.85p which is the price just paid before the normal trading closed - perhaps they will show up in the next 3 minutes