Member Info for alex1621

The trajectory of interest rates downwards I believe favours Aviva? So perhaps the SP will continue to drift upwards after the transaction goes through?

Any thoughts?

Rzez - just asked Chat GPT … they are saying no fees or stamp duty paid by holders like us. I think the AI is correct.

I don’t believe so, but I’m not 100% on that. I doubt it because it is not a transaction through the exchange.

So far my decision not to sell has panned out quite well. When the Takeover was announced there were many encouraging others to sell, and some who doubted whether the deal would take place. Glad I wasn’t influenced by them.

It is a pity that it was Mike Ashley that stepped up to the plate and not someone else. Not because he lacks retail skills, because he does, but because his corporate governance has been dodgy and the suspicion that he might act only in his own interests.

But he still got my votes. Kamani and Co have demonstrably sucked the blood out of the business and conned investors. As much as I like Dan I don’t believe he is driving the show. He is after all the CEO of a company that is handing Umar £2m in fees … for what exactly? Being cynical it looks as if Mahmud is not working for free, he is simply drawing his fee through his son.

And that’s why I was prepared to take my chance with Ashley.

Ashley has already been here with the listed Debenhams. Waiting for failure is a gamble, and he may well be in a bidding war if he does so. So I’m not convinced that is the likely outcome.

I’ve always believed Shein would be a bidder but their IPO has been the longest running saga in the history of IPOs. I’m willing to wait until they list in London.

I’m guessing that the Shein proposition in the US is turned on its head? Has anyone looked into what the implications are for Boohoo?

The problem with that is Ashley. If he waits until the business goes under there is no guarantee he will get any of the assets in a fire sale. Any sniff of M&A and the SP moves up … and fast. My thought is that is where we will end up … and it will happen this year.

There is no buyers for Boo as Ashley has reached his limit. I still believe that Shein and Ashley will eventually carve this up between them, they just need to get their IPO off the ground before proceeding. The Trump madness re China is a further motivating factor.

But … anyone defending the Board after this long running fiasco is worse than they are.

Finally, Mike Ashley gets a chance to buy "Debenhams"?

Yes, it is speculation but I’ve thought this for a very long time. Why get a DC when you are going to buy a company that has already established one in the UK? I can see Ashley being interested in Debenhams and Karen Millen, but he’s not normally associated with youth fast fashion … unlike Shein. It is a deal that makes sense for both parties.

Reardon - Dan is a sock puppet, he is not in charge of anything. Mike Ashley is no longer a Frasers executive but you can bet that Michael Murray gets his instructions from him, or would change strategy if Ashley told him to. Same with Kamani. He’s still in charge. Ashley warned this would be the case - and he is someone who knows how this works.

The problem for Ashley is that playing the waiting game in the hope of an Administration may not pay off. They lost Debenhams despite pouring a lot of money into it.

He either has to bid, like he did with Mulberry, or offload his stake to someone like Shein at a decent profit. He’s done business with them before. So, Shein take the youth brands and Ashley gets Debenhams. A turnaround is still possible if Shein’s train starts to come off the tracks, but that is a long shot, as they have the firepower to buy Boohoo and a willing seller at the right price. I don’t think the institutions will support Kamani in those circumstances. Just a theory, but a possible endgame.

I suspect the credible plan involves the sale of one or two brands, a break up. The positive about Ashley is that he’ll be trying to make sure nothing underhand is at work. Without his involvement God knows what these bunch of rogues would do.

It’s impossible to say for sure what you would lose. The dividend, for sure, and any uplift in Aviva shares following the takeover, not to mention the future Aviva dividend. If the Aviva share price tanks this year, or the takeover is called off, then you’d no doubt gain.

Selling or holding is a matter of personal judgement. There’s no right or wrong answer other than in hindsight.

You might want to consider stopping trolling people? Constantly quoting their words back at them and making sarcastic and condescending remarks. The only purpose of that is to psychologically hurt them, to cause them stress or lead them to make decisions that might harm them financially. It's hardly the sort of thing a decent human being would do, is it?

There are plenty on here who make critical comments about Boohoo, myself included, but they are not trolling people or trying to demean them.

SCB - I think it is fair to say that we are all hacked off with the performance, particularly the waste of resources we have seen over the last few years. Shein has definitely had an impact but the self inflicted resource wastage is impossible to defend. I voted for Ashley, even though I don’t trust him, but I trust Kamani less.

The Guardian reporting today that UK retailers are yet again calling on the Government to close the tax loophole. The fear is that once the EU has done so the UK will be flooded with cheap goods. I’m interested to see how Shein performs once these advantages are closed down … and I wonder how they will stand up to the closer scrutiny that comes with a listing? So I still believe that a turnaround in performance is possible, or at the very least they will be taken out at a price well north of todays.

SCB - I suppose you really need to look at the pattern of website visits over several years. Do they fluctuate during retail dead periods? I used to work in the retail industry and post January sale rush the footfall fell to a trickle. I’d be surprised if that same pattern wasn’t repeated online?

I think if Boohoo had been trading above expectations we would have heard during the Ashley EGM battle. I too would like to hear about this credible plan Dan keeps parroting to the media …. Perhaps he’d like to share it with shareholders?

Gggg21 - I witnessed a very similar event with ITV a few years back. It worked out okay in the end but it was clear that something wasn’t quite right with the SP movement. Liberty Global owned a large % of shares and set up a hedging strategy with Goldman Sachs using an option strategy. The SP pushed upwards as investors interpreted the move as a prelude to a takeover, only to watch the SP grind down week after week for 18 months or more. When they unwound the strategy the reverse happened, and the SP quickly recovered. I did some searching on Liberty Global and discovered articles where they manipulate a SP to reduce their original cost price. When they disclosed their shareholding remained the same but the cost of the shares was much lower? Very clever, but manipulation nonetheless.

Market makers hitting stop loss points? And shorters can still make money trading a range.

No one should conflate my comments with the car crash of Boohoo incompetence over the last 3-4 years, that’s another topic.

Hexam - my point was that this goes on in financial markets, and it has been happening on AIM because it is an illiquid market. Paul Hill’s post merely explains one way it is done. So when you see buys and sells of shares < 10 that might well be what you are looking at?

The SP disaster has many aspects, mismanagement being the obvious one. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. To be clear.

Reuters reporting that target valuation for IPO reduced to $50 billion. So much lower than previous buy ins.

They quoted an unnamed Government insider who is not authorised to comment on this subject - they are suggesting the Government still keen to get the IPO launched. Which is consistent with the point I made a few days ago. Reeves will tout this as a PR win. But I think it will come back to haunt her as the full dossier on Shein has yet to be opened.

My theory is that Boohoo is easy pickings and a good way to quickly pivot their supply chain. Reason why I watch Shein carefully.