Member Info for alex1621

Agree with most here. It is the choice between a rock and a hard place. A Frasers representative on the Board would have been ideal, as both keep each other honest. Even outside of the Board it is much harder for a Board to pull a fast one when they face the real possibility of being dragged through the Courts by Ashley.

If the Kamani’s get this over the line I hope it gives them the wake up call they need to get focused on a turnaround. Ashley would then be looking at the possibility of a bid approach. With Shein IPO early next year he would potentially have some competition. I think the company starts to recover next year or is swallowed up and/or broken up and sold for parts.

The problem with Ageas was the very poor second bid. Given the arrival of a very promising CEO it was never going to get over the line. One outsider who knew what the tipping point would be was Goldman Sachs, who defended DLG.

Aviva’s adviser on this is a “clean team” of Goldman Sachs. The old DLG defence team will not be allowed to speak to them. And if you believe that I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you.

Blanchflower - I agree the last three years have been a catalogue of failures. There is no question about that.

However, I can't see the Kamani's pulling a fast one when MA is looking over their shoulder. I like having him on board for that reason. But we have Umar Kamani, Adam Kamani, Mahmud Kamani, Carol Kane and Dan Finley running key areas of the business. All of them are likely to walk following an Ashley CEO move, and that creates an experience vacuum that will be incredibly difficult to fill. Frasers don't have the in house talent, and the two Mike's have no experience in this sector of retail, which is highly specialised. My fear is that chaos erupts and the business fails. We all lose, but Mike Ashley won't lose, he'll pick up assets and brands cheaply. And Mike Lennon will help him do that.

So food for thought.

I'm coming around to that idea also. I think the ideal would be to have a Frasers representative on the Board, holding their feet to the fire and making sure that the decisions they are making are aligned with all shareholders.

My issue after giving it some thought is that too many executives would walk out if Ashley took over. And that experience vacuum might prove very difficult to fill. Frasers are good bricks and mortar retailers but online talent is hard to come by. I agree that if Mike Ashley wants control he needs to pay a premium for it, through a takeover bid. The Board don't deserve my support but I might give them just one last chance. After that if they make another dodgy move I'm finished with them.

You’re welcome. I think the second offer will be in the 270-280p range. But Aviva are talking to institutions so they will be calculating what the second bid needs to be to get their support. They know the Board will reject the offer, but the institutional investors could force their hand. I don’t want to lose out on a decent profit just because Winslow doesn’t like Amanda Blanc. He hasn’t shown enough for me to back him over a decent offer.

Sideek - it is always possible there will not be a second offer, but we are hearing no whispers of that in the media. Aviva will have a takeover strategy and a price above which they will not proceed.

You don't believe a second offer will happen, I do. Let's see.

Andypandy

A very difficult question to answer. But I'll throw my tuppence in for what it's worth:

1) Takeover - a bid by Ashley or Shein or another would probably not go much above 50-60p. More if competitive, and that would be my hope.

2) Turnaround - any indication that the business is improving could be transformational. So £1 plus. Sounds mad from where we are standing but when these bombed out companies move, they move quickly and violently.

3) Stagnation - if the same pattern continues we are in the 20p category, but most likely to be taken out or broken up at 35p.

I still believe a turnaround is possible as I don't believe that the Shein phenomenon will be long lasting. According to the FT, it looks as if there will be no barriers to the flotation early 2025. Anything can happen, including a bid to takeover Boohoo. But if the de minimus rules are abolished and Trump enforces tariffs on China the outlook for Boohoo could improve considerably.

By the numbers and at today's price:

1) Cash on 2,500 shares = £2,812.5

2) 0.282 shares in Aviva = 705 shares. At today's price of £4.844 = £3,415.02

Cash and shares as at this minute = £6,227.52

Gives the equivalent of £2.49 per share. Today DLG at £2.294

Tiger - the offer is in two parts:

1) Cash - credited to your account

2) Shares in Aviva - so your account shows Aviva shares. They pay a decent dividend, so might be worth hanging on to. Or, you can sell them in the market for cash. The problem with shares is they go up and down, so they could drop following the takeover.

Alternatively, as you get closer to the deal date the SP of DLG will drift closer to the bid price, but be below it. You could sell all of your DLG shares for cash before the deal date. You will get slightly less but cash in hand.

Slight possibility of an alternative offer being made by a rival before the deal date.

Ocean - are Boohoo engaging in conference calls also?

SCB - I have concerns too, and I will raise them and listen very carefully to what they are saying.

I plan to ask them exactly that. And more.

Siddeek - predictions? They are a bit tricky. The Ageas attempt at a takeover was a pretty poor effort. Everyone was expecting a higher second bid, and the offer was that came was uninspiring. I believe Ageas were restricted by their shareholders on how much they could bid. Funnily enough, that bid today, given the Ageas share price, would be worth 257p. And that is why Ageas are being mooted as a second bidder. Their paper today is worth more. Another factor was the promise of Adam Winslow, with many looking to see what he could do. Also, bear in mind Goldman Sachs were representing DLG in its defence.

With Aviva, there are fewer restrictions. They have Goldman Sachs working for them now. That means that they have an insider view on DLG, and will therefore have an idea at what price the Board will come to the table. The cost savings and synergies are greater with Aviva, as they can squeeze more savings than DLG could as a standalone. The fact that the SP has fallen back hard suggests that Winslow will not get the backing he had in his early days. So DLG is there for the taking, all it needs is a 10% hike on the second offer. No CEO sticks their neck out with an offer only to walk away on the first knock back. Unless you believe that Blanc is simply trolling former colleagues? And that is why I believe a second offer is incoming.

FED1 - yes. I emailed Georgson's a few weeks back, so they had my details.

Has anyone been invited to participate in a Conference Call with Frasers? It is an opportunity to ask the two candidates for the Board some questions.

I hope that Aviva don’t make the same mistake as Ageas and nickel and dime their second bid. It has to be enough to get DLG to open their books. Then we are closer to a done deal. Given they have Goldman Sachs on board (who defended DLG) they will have inside knowledge about what that level is. Even though they are not supposed to use that, we know they will.

IParsnip - that’s because it is not news. The fund raise was confirmed days ago, and the Board already indicated it was going to pay off debt. The extra £10m paid may have accounted for the SP bump last week. Shareholders are the last to know.

The problem with the short % is that it only reveals shorts that have breached a threshold. You can be short, below the threshold, but not be included in the short % published on websites. Whatever it says the level of shorts will be higher.

Boohoo RNS that £50m of the short term loan has been paid of. Leaves £47m to be paid.

Funded by fund raising and reduction in stocks. Apparently.

When Shein/Temu get stopped in their tracks by legislation they'll be saying that it was inevitably going to happen ... it will start in the US, quickly followed by the EU, then UK.

Until then it's an unstoppable juggernaut that will never falter ... ever.