Member Info for Alas_Smith

As an aside, if there is a single element of investing that determines fortune it is information. Not all information, of course, but information that is important for decision making. In the same way that an advanced motorist might use IGSPOA (Information, Gear, Speed, Position, Observation, Action) as their mantra, the decision that underpins everything is information and this needs to be reviewed in advance of every action but also in anticipation of a changing landscape.

So, do you, for instance subscribe to the free podcasts given by Goldman Sachs? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzXgFvsxIM is a typical one. Same with other major investment houses. And while only the very richest domestic punter can compete with possibly the smallest institutional investment fund, there is no reason why we should not hang onto the coat tails of the movers and shakers.

The one reference above is very timely. And, if it is of any consequence, January was 3% down from the end of December. Between 1 Feb and this last Monday, the loss had been clawed back and I was up 6% on the year. Today, I am back at even from the start of the year, though have received a few dividends in the meanwhile to boost my cash by a whopping 0.14% portfolio.

My tolerance to risk remains HIGH. We have seen this week the first hint that we might face inflation. And that, oddly enough, I believe to be good news. Good, because it suggests a consumer led lift to discretionary spending meaning that lockdowns en masse are approaching an end (there will be local ones, I am sure and my younger son who is a Doctor working in A&E at the moment after 4 months in the Covid wards, reckons that a 3rd wave will start once night clubs re-open) and will give a lift to spending for a very short time.

The immediate danger we face is what is proposed in the budget next month. I do not expect any major tax increases, if anything, I am expecting a bit of a giveaway budget in the hope that it will prevent unemployment rising in conjunction with inflation.

If there is a budget to encourage investment and business re-location with lowered taxes now, you can be sure that corporation tax will be levelled up in the years to come. I can see the threshold for VAT being lowered to £50,000 turnover - business are now required to account fully online and declare VAT electronically with linked banking. In this way it smooths the inflow to the exchequer with a slightly bigger amount from a slightly enlarged base.

It will pave the way for a more continental approach where every business charges VAT.

Anyway, enough of my drivel. Still yet to be offered a jab. I remain patient, if a little frustrated with the hopeless Corporals club that in essence is the Welsh Government under whose jurisdiction I live.

I do hope that you have all managed to resolve your issues with the AJBell platform. One of my gripes that I had at the time (and returned to focus on the RDSB board) was the very disarming email service for RNS issued. The choice of wording used and (if I am not mistaken from memory) in capital letters had a sense of urgency of high importance - "Corporate Action".

The implication was something untoward, a whiff of scandal, the start of some legal proceeding had occurred, whereas it was simply the issue of a regulatory news statement.

Luck, I'm afraid, is a commodity and a sideshow of patience, diligence and research. And although this site is focussed on those offerings that are quoted on UK exchanges, rewards need (and should) not just be considered from a domestic angle.

Since the overwhelming focus on companies in this thread, and by implication those for or in CSDI's portfolio, are the core components in a portfolio rooted from the 1990's (yep - 30 years ago), these are very mature companies and are not necessarily the ones that will be the dinosaurs in 2030 or 2040 or 2050.

So, to throw yet another spanner in the works, please try not to place credence on that that has worked in the past without understanding why it worked in the past. It worked in the past through monopoly economics. Take Shell as a good example. One of the reasons it grew to be a giant was through growth, not from pumping more oil or drilling deeper holes or finding bigger wells, but by buying its competitors. And some of those were FTSE 100 companies in their own right.

It was the same with Smiths that merged with Klinewort Benson and were again taken over or merged (I forget which) with Glaxo. These were businesses that could not grow fast enough organically, so it was a case of absorb and discharge.

Might I be very impertinent and suggest that the focus should be on companies that are startups and thus at the beginning of their relationship to public ownership in the fields of renewables whether it is in the mining of copper or cobalt, the design and built of hydrogen storage and distribution, catalytic conversion of hydrogen into water with the by-product of energy or in the capacity of storing energy in battery bans rather than fags, booze, oil and paper. Utilities to distribute, store or control energy are going to be the "must have" shares in a portfolio at some point...... which one(s) I am not sure - scatter gun approach with a decent wedge is the approach I am taking.

These huge fag, booze, paper and oil companies are not going to go bust overnight or in the next decade, but their influence to shape the world will diminish. And what was a 5% divi last year is next year 6%'er and 2025's 8%'er before it is all rebased at 5% or some other "attractive" return.

Dividends should be considered, of course, but not as a priority. Capital growth, I suggest should be your ambition and any dividend a bonus.

Hi Kinmitali22, sadly, you will find that there are many charlatans giving tips so, perhaps the best advice is not to believe anything from anyone you have not actually met, know and trust. I am not qualified to provide financial advice, but I can point you in a broad direction so that you can discover a gem of your own.

First, be honest with yourself and understand what is meant by risk : reward. Then look at the timescale that you have in mind. A timescale under 6 months and the stock market is definitely not the place for your cash. If you are looking at 5 years or longer, then it most definitely is the place for rewards to be made BUT care must be taken at every step along the way. The present has the awkwardness of a pandemic that is gradually coming under control so you could look at sectors for recovery (travel, oil, hotels, leisure, motor etc) or sectors that are needed for raw materials (building materials, mining, container ports and shipping), and don't forget that although many companies involved in administration have discovered the joy of working from home so those will be in demand (IT, cloud computing, cyber-security). Of course it might mean further reduction in office space but increase in warehousing, so don't rule out commercial property.

Politically, the world is gearing towards reduction in carbon and increase in renewables. Batteries, charging infrastructure etc - these need a lot of copper and often rare minerals - other green initiatives for power include hydrogen, nuclear, solar and wind. Businesses need cash from banks sometimes for expansion and other times for survival. The next 12 months may see wholescale closures of industries that are not viable once the storm begins to subside so loans may turn sour despite the attractive rate of borrowing.

There are a few pointers. However, you will not make any money until you actually sell your investment. Buy wisely, always leave something for the next guy, run your winners and sell your losers. You should always accept that you are not going to be right all of the time.

Why are you looking at small cap companies when a large cap might be better to learn about, research and understand? Do you really understand how and where say, Shell makes money? Is it a better managed company than BP? Which is likely to perform better - and over what period - and why? What about geo-politics and exchange rates?

What sort of return do you want from your investment? 5%, 10%, 20%, 100%, 200% more? Tesla (one of the most valuable companies in the world by market capitalisation) rose 700% last year so don't discount the big boys. Good luck - an interesting topic, but few are qualified, myself included to give financial advice. Try and work it out for yourself. Don't try and fight the market, go where the money is going and although you will make mistakes, discover what the mistake was and NEVER repeat them.

CSDI, while I admire your tenacity to cling onto the past, your decisions are open to criticism.

FWIW, I do NOT hold shares in GSK though I have owned them in the past. But here is my analysis ( and for GSK, you can substitute RDSB or IMB too) on its immediate prospects and its future.

In short GSK is writhing as it is going to be broken up, though the timing is not fully in place. It has missed its broker forecasts again and the company lacks any dynamisn to face the present let alone the future with any strength other than reputation. In short it is a bloody big tanker where the engines having been running at full power conked out 2 years ago and the momentum has carried it for these last 2 years.

To restart either division is going to take different managers and a HUGE amount of cash. Cash, that institutions might not be willing to invest for the "old" way of working.

I repeat my suggestion that you look where the (political) WORLD is directing effort (and by implication, risk capital) from public opinion and it is in the sectors of AI, BioTech and Renewables. Fags have none of these, GSK have a tiny exposure and Oils are waking up to this but can ONLY change through acquisition.

Your model can work for capital growth rather than yield through ambitious tiddler companies nibbling at the edges in the sectors you have in mind. This is, as ever, not advice, but comment.

FWIW, Jan was a normal month (12.5% annualised growth) , Feb has been better than average (34% annualised growth built from January), despite many recent down days. I am on track for a 22% portfolio rise this year.

I have introduced and invested new capital equivalent to 0.5% and investments generated cash from dividends equivalent to 0.18% this year which has not found a home. Cash represents 0.7%. I like to be fully invested.

ebuyer2412

I doubt you will get many contributors giving any tips since that implies advice for which licence is necessary. While a consumer driven recvovery seems probable, the danger is that it will be short lived. So, rather than buy for recovery, perhaps you could give more thought to portfolio construction to suit your timescale, tolerence to risk and level of exposure.

For myself, I began to re-align my portfolio to a higher risk level from Medium High to High last November to remove some of the more turgid holdings for those that are likely to prosper in the years and decades ahead. Reduction therefore in distillers such as Diageo and increase in "green" stocks such as Varta, AFC Energy and a couple of Investment Trusts, 3in and TRIG.

With the prospect of consumerism pretty well exhausted in the Western World and todays 20-30 year old saddled with long term debt, I have added to my holding in Aubrey - a little known Investment Trust - that focusses on exactly that segment but in emerging markets.

Good luck with your picks. I do not hold any of those and am not sure that I like the look of them much either. it is not to suggest thay are poor, simply that I don't like them at the moment. Things may change and no point in getting worked up on someone elses choice.

I have sent email to you.

CSDI1962, my wisdom is more Norman than that of a sage who knows his onions.... anyway, I hope very much that things work out for you - always good to explore others rationale not only for individual investments but also where they feel most comfortable.

FWIW, I am still learning and keen to improve my stock picking skills. My main failing is that I am usually too keen to be fully invested. I think I may have disclosed that my attitude to risk has changed from Medium High to High. I am also rather more conscious that my preferred choice of investments was limited. There are not many UK companies in the top 200 by Market Cap that I have not held shares at some time or other.

However, for the last decade, the UK has under-performed the wider market. My hunch is that the FTSE is going to have a sparking year, but not just yet (if that makes sense). But the political masters that determine major change are addressing climate change..... and that means a greater exposure to battery power, rare earth elements, copper etc as well as the change in working patterns for service based companies.... so cloud computing and SaaS. And then, of course is leisure form bombed out enterprises that are yet to recover - airlines, hotels, laundries etc

For 19 years I contributed to ADVFN as Erogenous Jones. Following my complaint to that company on cyber bullying which was ignored, I issued the company with a Data Subject Access report. The company refused to delete my data, issued a permanent ban on me and I have raised further complaint with the Data Commissioners Office which is under investigation at the moment.

The pun with names was quite deliberate and might bring a smile.

Delighted that you have done so well thus far. However, I know nothing of Degiro, and as the capital that you are starting with has been hard won, I would stick with more mainstream companies such as those mentioned on the various strands to your thread.

hi philipjm. I had replied earlier but no sign that the message was published. I'll try again!

The underlying structure of IT's is different from the open ended funds. Plenty were gated last year as a result of liquidity (investors wishing to cash out), mainly property based funds. That is, if you like the fundamental difference - liquidity had to be created by the fund managers selling assets and property deals (and unquoted assets) take far longer than those involving quoted equities.

So, although you might not like the price offered by Market Makers at least you can place a bargain for settlement under Stock Exchange rules. Dividends (if the Trust pays them out) are more stable because the Trust usually has provision for retained earnings - this is useful in a down year so that dividends are unbroken. City of London is a good example.

Hope that helps

hi philipjm, investment trusts generally have out performed funds and are deliberately kept under the radar by the main supermarket fund brokers of which Hargreaves Lansdown is the largest player. There were plenty of other funds that were gated in 2019 and 2020 which were property based. Again, it is the liquidity in the fund that is the problem not necessarily the fund manager.

For the last few years, we have seen commercial property (with the exception of warehousing) crash. It will (IMO) continue to crash in metropolitan areas once the furlough scheme ends and businesses have to resume rents. We have just started (again, my opinion) to see the effect that closure of economy does in terms of business failures; these I believe will accellerate this year.

So, as funds require liquidity, either as new money is introduced or generated both to acquire assets and to discharge those wishing to redeem their stake, the level of cash held might not be enough. Investment trusts do not have that problem as the shares in the trust are separate from the assets of the trust.

Investment trusts also have a long term record of payment of dividends (City of London is a good example) and can also add leverage to their assets. There is an excellent book by John Baron which explains the advantages and disadvantages of IT's over funds.

Where I hope that RoseMax will benefit is to use the theme of pooled resource to grow her wealth and spread this over 5 sectors. The sectors, I suggest are China, Emerging Markets, Renewables, Healthcare and Information Technology.

Anyway,returning to funds..... as so often happens, the fund manager with the loudest drum has prominence. Most of the commentators in the press when providing opinion on portfolio structure funnily enough seldom mention Investment Trusts or individual shares but they always seem to promote funds..... and that is how they get paid!

SadAct, I suspect is of a similar vintage to myself. I am still building my portfolio having started in 1979!

Your first few investments to "cut your teeth" are potentially likely to be shares in a "fund" of some sort. In simple terms these are either open-ended or closed ended. What is the difference? Closed ended fund begin with the injection of capital by the managers. A prospectus is issued to set out how the investments are going to be managed and SHARES are sold to investors so that the managers simply manage the capital. This type of fund is an INVESTMENT TRUST. The managers make investments with the capital and the market capital (share price) of the fund rises and falls so that there is always a Nett Asset Value (NAV) to underpin the Trust. Shares in the trust might be at a premium or discount to the NAV. If investors wish to sell their shares, MM will give them a price for the shares. Investors might not like the price offered, but thay can sell and realise their assets.

A fund, on the other hand, seeks to attract investors through the reputation of the managers. If the fund does well, it will attract money (which can be used to buy new holdings). It will also need to have a constant flow of cash from dividends and new investors so that those wishing to realise their holding can do so at specified valuation dates. Usually once per week.

A fund that is failing (Woodford was a good example) will have more sellers than buyers and may have to sell assets to meet liquidity. If it is unable to meet its liabilities or the assets are too illiquid to sell, the fund might be "gated". No new investors permitted and no investors able to realise their holding.

Although fund supermarkets (and Hargreaves Lansdown is a big player) are frequently described in the press as suitable investments, I would urge caution and ALWAYS choose an investment trust in preference.

Sorry if this all seems rather overwhelming. There is a lot to take in and it can be very confusing at first. Do yourself a favour and get an old book published by the Motley Fool (before they went downhill) called "How To Make Your Child A Millionaire". I know it is written for an American audience, but it is an excellent starting point and makes its points very well.

If you do not understand what the company does or how it makes its money, then walk away. The person that has your best financial interest at heart is you. You know what sort of company you want to be associated with so do not be afraid to ask the managers of the company for information. Investment Trusts will, for instance, let you have a monthly list of all their assets in a portfolio. You just need to ask. If the company is unwilling to be open honest and truthful about what it does and how it generates revenue, walk away. Some managers are utter charlatans, others ruthless and some are exceptional. Most, though are at best average.

Hello RoseMax

I am not qualified to give financial advice, but I can point you in a few directions. The first is not to put all your eggs in one basket and the second is to have a strategy to exit. Might sound daft, but you do make neither a profit nor a loss until you sell.

You are starting at a very good time insofar as the markets are priced in for a long and sustained recovery but am not convinced that your choice of an individual equity (share in a quoted comnpany) is going to be the correct approach just yet. Take into account dealing costs - typically these will be somewhere between £10 and £15 for each transaction (buy and sell) and for many companies there is stamp duty to pay too.

I'll try and give the same advice as I give to my children as they are beginning to build their portfolios put the money into a Stocks and Shares ISA (brokers such as Hargreaves Lansdown, Charles Stanley Direct etc) because although you are unlikely to exceed either the £2,000 threshold for dividends or the CGT allowance unless you are extremely fortunate, there is no point in being taxed on your investments and good sense to plan for your future.

Next, split the sum into 5 amounts, each of £1,000 so that you can drip these into 5 different holdings. Understand where the market is going and use momentum to your advantage. (I believe that the political will of the world is for a greener society). Consider at this stage too where growth will occur once the pandemic is fully over.

Markets are forward looking so are about 6 months ahead of where we are today, if that helps. The last 20 years have grown as a consumer led market and todays 20 year old cannot (in the west) has huge debts from education to pay off. Developing (sometimes called emerging or frontier) economies want a piece of the action too, so consider a tiny investment trust called Aubrey as that is exactly where they focus. IT is going to be terribly important too as the West realise that it is possible to work from home, and this throws new challenges - Allianz Technology Trust or Polar Technology Trust might be worth thinking about.

You might also want exposure to infrastructure that is desperately needed for the green revolution - The Renewables Infrastructure Group for instance is a solid player with a good track record of preserving capital and with the intention of delivering a growing dividend policy every quarter.

Of course, you might also want to look at Utilities but not necessarily water, gas and electricity in the domestic markets - Utilico might be a good'un for you. Templeton, Scottish Mortgage and Montanaro have fantastic track records.

I hope this gives you a few pointers. Only you can make the decision to place a bargain. Run your profits but cut your losses early. Good luck - I am sure the next 6 months will be a very exciting and rewarding time for all investors.

Don't sweat it, CDSI. More often than not, my posts are drivel.

I expect that you noted today that Siemens have laid off a few thousand staff from their gas division as they steer their company along a more sustainable path. As an aside, I chucked a chunk of cash yesterday and today into AFC Energy to average my holding up (my preference). Yes, I know it does not meet your criteria in that it is an AIM equity, but it is a company in the right place and at the right time. There has also been a broker upgrade today raising target price from 74p to 191p as FAIR VALUE.

The upgrade advanced the SP by almost 19% (it remains at or close to 70p). Occasionally there is luck in timing - this is one such occasion.

As an aside, why not look at the sectors that service miners - such as conveyor belts, industrial diamonds etc? - some have a cross revenue with oil companies? 'fraid I have lost patience with morons like the retired copper - a bigot that I am sure will lose his shirt gradually.

I am sure that was a good decision CSDI, to sell BP. Oil is not out of the woods just yet and my remarks on RDSB still stand - trading range 1225 to 1450. However, I am intrigued with your choice for gold as a penny miner as gold is rather coming off the boil as there seems to be a flight back to equities. Miners are always fun but why not consider how the world is moving towards electric energy - and that needs a HUGE amount of copper

The proposed sum is not really of sufficient size to make a meaningful investment. Dealing costs (both buying and selling) and the spread will be the downfall. Besides, at the point of publishing your question, most markets are closed.

Since the FTSE comprises the largest companies by Mkt cap there are plenty of sectors that are pretty bombed out and others that are in general decline. I am not sure why you have an obsession with high yield dividends. They are high yield for a reason and high yields are simply not sustainable except from very substantial cash generation and a total lack of imagination by their respective boards to change.

I do applaud you for the review of your portfolio - always necessary - BUT, you should also pay attention as to where the major pension funds and financial institutions are placing their clients (and own) wealth. Oil is still going to be needed, but energy is definitely moving to sustainable fuels - look at hydrogen from ammonia and fuel cells. Note too that technology is going to be MORE important than it has been. And as you like the larger companies, IBM are trying (yet again) to re-invent itself. They are finally looking to boost their capability for cloud computing, though I fear it is too late to break the dominance of Amazon and Google.

A few more things to consider - oh, and last week I chucked a bit more capital into the markets (AFC energy), which is a bit of a gamble but less so than it was, if that makes sense.

FWIW, I have today bunged a little (more) money at TT Electronics, many different arms to their revenue stream. The market cap has dropped back quite a bit but it remains above the 200 day SMA. Has a habit of bouncing off the 150 day point which is where we are about now.

The charts plotting the share price can give good clues. Equities that have a steadily rising chart are the ones that are likely to continue in such vein. In the same way that with the flooding in UK at the moment, companies that will benefit are going to be carpet makers and, sad though it is, once the furlough scheme ends and returning employees find themselves facing redundancy, pawnbrokers will begin to see an uplift in business.

When foreign travel returns in earnest (and I suspect it will not be until Spring 2022), then foreign exchange brokers, airlines and hotels should rise and are now beginning to show flickers of life. In terms of healthcare at the moment, elective surgery has been stalled for the greater part of a year in coping with Covid 19 patients. There is a backlog of cases and these tend to be dealt with in concerted batches so that 6 months worth of hip replacements are completed in a 6 week plan followed by those needing say colorectal surgery. Companies worth looking at might be Convatec (wound care), Linde (medical gases) or TT Electronics (sensors for medical markets) etc A few more ideas to consider, I hope.

ok..... well, do you like the notion of overall portfolio growth? I believe that these are likely to come from IT, Biotechnology and Emerging Markets. And while it is nice to have share in direct holdings (as I have with Adyen, NVIDIA, Elekta, Illumina, Thermo Fisher, Zoetis, Adobe, Varta, and plenty of others), have a look at some of the Investment Trust in these sectors as they will give you a broad exposure to these growth areas. Those Investment Trusts that immediately string to mind include Herald, Montanaro, 3i, Genesis, Templeton, Utilico, Scottish Mortgage, Throgmorton, Shroders Asian Total Return, Aberdeen Asia and many others. (I also hold shares in all of these incidentally).

Insofar as the newsletters are concerned, they tend to be pretty useless. Might I suggest that you try and obtain to the daily briefing notes issued by the major brokers such as Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan. Those are the players that will determine sector and market direction as they influence when the pension funds place shareholder funds.

Recently I have disposed of a large tranche of shares in RDSB and reduced my holding in Allianz Technology Trust to just 500 shares. I have placed the proceeds in (among others) CME because I am certain that although I expect to achieve growth in 2021 of between 17% and 23%, the road is going to be very bumpy. CME thrives on volatility. By the same token, I am very bullish on Asia. Hence have bunged a substantial sum into Aberdeen Asian Income. It is very traditional that investors are rewarded with substantial dividends from companies in that geographic sector. Would fit your investment style - particularly if you had exposure to say Samsung, China Mobile, Tata etc