Member Info for Alas_Smith

And now, a couple of months since visiting this topic, change has been made in my portfolio. These have been subtle to have more or less exposure to sectors. Increase to defense, IT, Pharma and AI and reduction in emerging markets.

Cannot pretend that 2025 was a year I wish to repeat, far too volatile, but I am up on the year though for much of it was in negative territory.

This will be my final post to this site. It is riddled with intrusive advertising, has dreadful data feed for reliable planning and moderation that is superficial.

Good fortune to all.

Not to try and discover equities tha are cheap, but yes to modelling future returns, sectors that have increasing professional research coverage and then analysis based on typical comparisons

With the prospect that US has reached an agreement with China to, I assume, cap tariffs, it bodes well for the bull market in both Asian and US markets to continue.

The UK remains in the slow or middle lane (at best), but at least it is not on the hard shoulder (yet). In a months time when Reeves who does Chancellor of the Exchequer impressions tries to make the case to tax the electorate to a ghastly submission, investors will be able to make next years financial decisions.

Meanwhile, this investor has started the process to leave UK shores for estate planning purpose as see little financial advantage in staying in the UK.

Returning to AI and why the bubble might not even exist let alone be close to bursting and it is important to understand what needs to be done by commercial enterprise to use AI for any advantage it might have for their business. There has to be a huge roll out of infrastructure (so that is the like of Broadcom, Qualcom etc) and then the use of powerful chips. The machines that make these are from a single source (ASML) with such as massive moat that the barrier to entry is too great for meaningful competition.

Next, data centres need HUGE numbers of servers to process the mathematics that are being used for the learning process that AI has to have before there is even the faintest suggestion of automation. At the moment, AI can predict text quite well but only really to the point that it uses large volume of data to give AN answer. Sadly, though there is an awful lot of BS that is in print and media that AI does not understand is false information.

I do not envisage a point when ML (machine learning) migrates to AGI (artificial general intelligence), but I am willing to wager that there is an awful lot of jobs that robotic software (and in a sense AI) will remove from employees. That is why I am investing in AI and do not see a bubble bursting. Right now, if we use a balloon analogy, the packet has been opened, there are a lot of different colour balloons and in different shapes. Some are being inflated but nowhere near bursting as we are just scratching the surface - all this is my opinion and I could be hopelessly wrong

September generally is the month to re-align holdings in advance of traditionally beneficial months for investors. This year, it co-incides with a decision to purchase a little more land so rather than strengthen winners, I am ditching a poor performer AUGM, taking some profits on Broadcom and shifting cash to a different asset class.

Bought shares in UBER during September since they seem rather more advanced in autonymous driving than Tesla throw off bundles of cash and have announced a huge share re-purchase scheme. All the ingredients for capital growth, methinks

Disclaimers note past performance. And you, probably like most of us will disregard this and rightfully so as history cannot be changed. From a financial planning perspective, I am asking myself if the boom by the "magnificent 7" that has driver US indices to highs will last or will burst. I believe it will last and my strategy...., well, read on

The rise can clearly be levelled at the foundation for AI and led by Nvidia. There is a point when growth from Nvidia flattens and those companies best able to utiise their advances take the batten and run. For the last 2 years I have been gradually selling my holding in Nvidia to bank gains of over 100x my initial investment. And these I am putting to work in what I hope is the next generation.

The companies I've been investing in are ASML (they make the machines that make the chips) and the companies that control the infrastructure that business will rely on for connectivity - Broadcom, Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Yes, I know they are for the most part not UK companies, but investing should not be confined to an exchange or geography.

Politics will have influence but progress will prevail in the longer term.

I'm therefore strengthening my exposure to defensive sectors in Europe and UK, increasing my exposure to both computer infrastructure and IT and remaining invested in defence, emerging markets and financials, I remain bearish on residential and commercial property and have a feeling that Banks are approaching a "sweet spot" for interest rates though prefer to wait until February before committing any capital to those last 2 sectors.

Have I got things right or wrong? Well in the past 40 years I have beaten the market and have an average 13.25% gain for that time. This year I am underperforming the market with 6/85 holdings that are deep into negative territory and expect to have a return of around 7% this year. It might be adjusted, of course, but forward growth is based on past averages and is not (always) a reliable indicator.

Latest purchases include adding to my holding in Broadcom, Ramsdens, AFC and Microsoft, dripping some cash into LGEN and selling3i and Accenture.

No idea if this is useful but breaks up the spam about some crappy football game

You need to understand that a novice trader is never an experienced investor. If you want to trade, then perhaps you need to understand how options and futures work and if you want to invest, you need to understand how to read a balance sheet and what makes a great CEO.

FWIW, I am very distrustful of a CEO that came from an accountancy background.

Bills as they fell due - we began the mitigation of IHT by gifting cash assets to our children and these have started to fall out of our estate. We now cannot get rid of assets fast enough, without compromising our own future so tax residency has become a very real consideration for us.

The kicker on taking 40 years to reach £1m, is that it took just 8 years to reach £2m and, based on past performance, around 7 years to reach £4m. The £2m threshold is safe and at the upper limit for most in the UK and the next threshold for safety is £12m (based on my examination of financial law in the UK) - between these figures the argument for tax residency outside the UK weighs in favour of other countries.

This is not, of course, economic advice. I suspect that the future for Rachel from Customer Services is unlikely to last very long and that for Smarmer only a year or two more.

Reform of the Civil Service is badly needed in the UK - bring everything online and stuff the electorate is the simple way forward is the quickest way to address productivity, slash the pension arrangements for Nationalised companies the second and reduce the exposure of the NHS to core activities the third. Cosmetic procedures, except in consequence of accident or birth defect are discretionary and un-necessary. Mental health is too easy an excuse for malingering but reward should be given for volunteer work and provision of a home.

Anyway..... I am off to geography new - it will take about 15 years for my estate to detach from the UK. I have reached the point where I wish I felt wealthy - I don't, yet compared with the many tables, I am in the 1%-5% wealth bracket. Partly from house price inflation, partly from owning more than 1 property, partly from not borrowing to buy assets and partly from saving every penny I could to ensure that I could survive old age. Just wonder what for, sometimes.

Better open another bottle of claret, I s'pose

And, of course, the list goes on.

At some point, it really doesn't matter what political opinion is held, the goal becomes to work within the rules that are enacted. There might become a point when, having followed the rules a more original approach is needed to protect the results that a working lifetime have established.

So, while an ordinary herbert posting on a financial BB might not carry the weight of a journalist in an authoritative publication here goes: Let's get politics out of the way - I have voted Conservative, Labour, Liberal, Social Democrat, Lib Dem in General Elections since turning 18 in the mid 70's and on each occasion my vote secured the party that ultimately wielded or shared power. I did not care for the politics, but simply felt that change was required.

In kicking Conservatives from office, the intention was not to vote Labour to power - it is a consequence - but Reeves seemed to have curried favour with the City and, the City generates phenomenal wealth for the country whether or not it meets with approval. She has been caught with her knickers down - lying about dates on her CV, exaggerated claim in her employment record and is demonstrating an absent grasp of private enterprise. Her budget has snuffed confidence in micro, small, medium and large business and seems to ignore the elephant in the room - the swollen public sector which accounts for 20% workforce.

That aside - the notion to target cash ISA's (and until policy in announced is simply speculation) is odd. Ask the majority of 20-30yr olds what they would do if they had £1m, and there is a good chance there is a shopping list. Those with cash ISA's tend not to be millionaires (in terms of liquid assets) but property rich, very modest income and cash poor -Their savings are in cash and thus accessible to support small pensions and augment their State Pension. From what I gather these are savings of £20,000 or less.

A savings return of 5% for cash tax free is only just above inflation, but it is readily available and neither subject to CGT or income tax - perfect for many. I think we can agree that the State Pension of £11,450 is slightly under the tax threshold and it won't take much in the way of savings (over a lifetime) even with paltry level of interest rate to exceed the threshold before taxation erodes savings further.

Quite monstrous to consider changes to the rules where those that have cash ISA's are likely to be cautious in their financial behaviour. And lastly, IHT - this is a hideous tax (I know having received an inheritance a few years ago, where despite the mitigation that was made through gifts, the executors had a bill of almost 7 figures and the share to each beneficiary far below that to the Treasury.

Sadly, my wife and I reached the point in 2014 before inheriting a single penny, through a mix of hard work, good fortune and luck to have triggered an IHT problem for our children yet barely earned enough to pay

The US Election has returned Mr Trump to power. Annd although this investors has a loathing for Mr Trump as an individual, from an investment perspective the question has to come down to "what did he actually achieve last time?" with the follow up of "what does he want to achieve this time around?".

Setting aside his vulgarity, crass comments and most other things which revolt me, the measure that he uses to gauge success is in terms of stock market performance. His ambition is simple. That stock markets are higher at the conclusion of term from the start.

Thus there is a compelling argument to invest in US equities in anticipation of another stonking year for the S&P 500.

No. The data feed was the reason for me to cancel my subscription premium. I have raised this with monotonous frequency with the staff in the company, have the same bland, bald and, in all liklihood, auto-response from "Claire".

Now, whether "Claire" is real or imaginary is immaterial; of importance is why the feed breaks daily to co-incide with the US markets opening and why, for that matter the RNS feed excludes many investment trusts such are THRG with their daily report.

LSE is a shambles, is trying to punch above their weight in a crowded marketplace. Either the infrastructure is held in house and needs to be elevated to the cloud, cashflow robs Peter to pay Paul or both. My hunch is that this is a shoestring company that has either not planned for any expansion of registered users/peak activity/data flow/data balance or a combination of two or more combinations.

Let's face it, the site goes down at least once each month and although is supported by Cloudflare, has been incorrectly configured so that the site when offline does not default to the Cloudflare system and thus is a completely wasted resource. Next, that users need to confirm that they are a "private investor" to read RNS statements is complete garbage. RNS are News Statements compliant with Regulations laid down by the exchange on which the shares are quoted. ANY interested party must not be denied access.

There is no compelling reason to become a subscriber to the platform UNTIL the foundation problems are addressed.

Well - so the rest of you have brilliantly constructed portfolio's I guess, so I will try for a slightly different tack. A little consolidation of my portfolio is required and have taken some cash off the table in 3i group and have bunged some cash at Eli Lily. Will be selling the remainder of holding in Molten Ventures over October and sitting on cash while the US election plays out and the UK budget hoves into view.

America consistently generates the better returns but Japan this year is putting in a stonking run.

Background for me is that I am a seasoned investor who, for the last almost 50 years, has gradually built my portfolio in advance of retirement. I've never been a high earner with fluctuating earnings from running a small business and never tipped into the higher tax brackets.

There are plenty of experts that will trawl through data and undertake fabulous research for a deep understanding of their portfolio, but I have to confess that simplicity is the key and for me, my target is simply not do worse than the market.

Taking just the last 10 years is as good a starting point, comparison between exchanges shows that the best place to have investment is the S&P 500 and in so doing, the average annual return is 11.76%. The DAX, CAC40, FTSE have all come in between 6.13% and 7.11% and the Hang Seng has basically stood still. The last 10 years have been kind to me despite a massive hit in 2022 (in common with most other investors) to have average growth of 18.05% and lift the long term average to 13.25%. This includes the re-investment of dividends and represents total return. Investing just to target dividends will work very slowly but only after decades and, of course, there is no guarantee that the same managers will be in place or that the company will survive. Marconi is a good example. And yes, I lost a lot of money there.

My portfolio is skewed in favour of direct holdings in US, EU and UK holdings quoted on NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Paris and other European exchanges with one or two holdings that are on smaller exchanges.

Of course, indices themselves do not pay dividends. Because I could only drip cash into the market, I had to have a deposit account building up the funds to make a purchase worthwhile and raid it from time to time to have a bargain executed of £1,000. No streaming prices, just newspapers for yesterdays price! It was not until online platforms such as Hargreaves Lansdown, AJ Bell, Interactive Investor and that ilk that the small investor had the chance to really invest and the range of funds, investment trusts and equities are brilliant these days.

Were I to start from scratch today, I'd put half my monthly contribution into a S&P 500 tracker fund and gradually build up a holding by sectors. Todays sectors that I believe hold appeal for investors are IT, Defence, Consumer Discretionary, Emerging Markets, Construction, Raw Materials, Pharmaceuticals and Mergers and Acquisitions. I would NOT be buying shares in Utilities, Consumer Staples, Banks or General Insurers.

Total return for an investor is key with capital preservation needing to be observed at all time. Yes, there will be a few holdings that out-perform and others that fail spectacularly. Holding on to a share for too long in the hope of recovery is folly - buying a share in the hope of recovery is different - same company, different scenario.

If this is of interest, I will expand.

Start with investor relations for the company of interest. Go back 3 years and work out how the company has grown or shrunk. Is it the market or the managers? Who are the rival companies?

Have their managers done better or worse? Is the sector expanding or contracting? Where is future growth expected? How liquid are the shares?

Work out too what you want as an investor. Capital growth, dividend income, sector exposure, portfolio rebalance etc.

Hope this helps.

Each year there is an award ceremony which is concerned about wealth and management thereof. Yesterday saw the 2024 awards issued. I was not there, neither did I vote BUT I do take a keen interest in the results.

Answering your question - the simple answer is yes (with caveats) but the complex answer is no.

Let's take the complex answer first. The "racing/sporting pink" is the FT. It is considered to be the "bible" for anyone in the City. Here, laid out are the daily results for every runner and rider that MIGHT or indeed, DOES have influence on the daily movement or writhings of exchanges accross the world.

Daily movements are completely irrelevant to an investor but of high concern to an investor. As 100% journalists are not identical to me, then their opinion is useless. As 100% investment managers do not share the same goals or even objectives to me, they too, then are useless.

The purpose of share tips is to put the most favourable slant on the prospects for a company that has released information to provide the case of ownership of a holding in that company.

The adage to DYOR has very different meaning for every investor - I am invested for capital growth and my risk level is high. Since I am closer to age 70 than I am to 60 does that mean that I am reckless? I also have investment portfolio to benefit future generations which are yet not born. The decisions I am taking is for capital growth at high risk and, as it is to pass its 10 year anniversary next year, so the risk will decrease to medium high and in a further 10 years to medium. It will also transition from growth to throwing off dividends. Growth may remain a priority in a bull market but stability will be of consequence in a bear one.

Still no RNS today. A gradual decline in the usefulness of this site - I cancelled my premiums as the live prices were haphazard, often wrong and expensive. The advertisements are intrusive and dominant and now RNS information is missing - hopeless.

No RNS showing (again) for any equity or Investment Trust

Jam 1579, first off, I'd like to extend an apology in case I am suggesting you suck eggs or in any way denegrade others that might have commented in this thread.

After starting in the late 1970's I continue to build my portfolio (now into 7 figures) and I began to align it so that it lasts the remaining 30 or so years I have left in mortal existance. There are a number of things to take into account including risk. I will start with that. Not knowing how old you are, the received opinion is that with a timeframe under 1 year risk should be VERY cautious. Up to 10 years, medium risk and greater than 20 years, risk can be set to HIGH. And that is exactly where my portfolio is for me right now. So, you are looking for your first investment, eh?

Well it starts by understanding that the UK is in the doldrums and has underperformed the US for decades. The UK provides a pretty well assured 5% growth for your money for ever. And when compounded this will see your capital double every 17 years. That is the average. However, this has been based for the most part on traditional companies, ones that employ lots of people have a pool of products and operate around the world.

That is old school stuff and generate solid dividends to allow cash to accumulate for investment in tomorrows winners. What you want are tomorrows winners right now, isn't it? So where are the winners to be had? I genuinely don't know but I will have a bloody good stab for you.

I am putting or have put my money into IT, healthcare, traditional energy and India. IT has to be upgraded every year not just to cope with advances in technology but to use those technologies to run the world. It includes AI. Healthcare has mapped the genome sequence so the future is targetted medicines. Without diesel the world will starve. EV is fine in a city, but for the vast majority of the world if the tractor won't run, then no food is planted/harvested/transported etc. India will take over the manufacturing go-to for the world from China - an educated and growing population that wants the trappings of the west.

No idea if this will be helpful, but take losses early and run profits.

Investment is about the LONG term so it is important to distinguish what that means for you. The bulk of my assets and those for my wife (35 years married) are in ISA wrapper. We have also a joint dealing account (the consequence of an inheritance) which will take another 8 years to shelter at current ISA rules. We started contributing to SIPP's but these are ONLY for succession planning for IHT.

We began planning for IHT in 2015 prior to receiving any inheritance as we had (through house price inflation and good investment decisions) triggered the limit for tax free succession. Aside from creating new Wills we put the foundation in place for a discretionary trust and a Family Investment Company (FIC). The former comes up for the 10 year tax charge and the FIC has not yet been seeded with capital but the structure is in place.

Understand WHY you are investing and what you want to achieve. We draw a small amount each month from our ISA from dividends thrown off. The capital uplift each year from our investments these days is more than double our aggregate salary, but until we are ready to retire, we are building our portfolio. For us to fully retire and meet our day to day living expenses the capital in our portfolio will determine the timing. The broad rule of thumb is the 3% rule. And for us it means £1.8m invested and another 2 years of OUR average growth (13.5%) before we can contemplate this.

Our portfolio is constructed for capital growth not for income. Dividends are NOT assured and by targeting growth it is somewhat easier to get the mood for holding to fulfil ambition . We therefore will continue to target capital growth investing any dividends that are thrown off along the way.

These are now so intrusive that I have specifically created a gated tab for LSE in Edge browser with an aggressive adblocker in place too. Refresh of landing page blocks around +/-20 adverts and 15+ trackers