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Feels like it’s really turning a corner now. Also feels like Big Al has got the hang of lining up RNSs to create a wave of good news, instead of piecemeal ones that don’t move sentiment. Been a long and nervous wait for us LTHs but it’s hard to see a major downside from here.
It IS true what they say about you. Other kids stole your sweets in the playground, Ripley, and you’re belatedly bullying others to make up for it. I ain’t triggered, and you’ve got me mixed up with someone else (would that make YOU thick? Who knows). I’ve never had a short, and am only ever positive and supportive on Twitter. Off you trot and make some ‘ripples’ elsewhere.
LivenLearn - precisely. None of us would have predicted an SP of around 90p a year ago, after the news we’ve had. Hence me being sceptical about how much the market would jump on the news. Still a huge fan, and today is an exciting day for shareholders and cancer treatments alike, but calling it correctly seems to trigger some people who didn’t get enough cuddles from their mummy when they were little.
MrRipley again. Yawn. You do you - keep going with the playground bully tactics and see how much money that makes you.
Did you even read my post? I’m being objective, not ramping, not deramping, not being thick and not being a bully. Starting a *discussion* on a discussion board. Amazing - who’d’ve thought?
I want to make money as much as anyone else, but I’ve seen enough ‘meh’ reactions from the market to (it appears so far) to have called this one correctly. Bore off and try to bully someone else. Not interested.
But, I’ll wager this price does not move north of 120p (note, approx 30% higher than current) before either strong sales numbers or strong bottom-line profits. The market will move, a little, on positive DE news, but it will not be back above £2 before AVA6000 is actually approved.
There’s a prediction for you to rubbish. Have a nice day. You’ll want to screenshot this one, in case you have an opportunity to prove me wrong in future (spoiler - I’ll be delighted and wealthy if you can).
GLA (except the ones who want to be d**ks).
I hope you’re right, Awax.
Market is happy this morning, but not ecstatic. Did we really expect the SP still to be under £1 after DE news?
The folks who thought they’d make a quick buck of LFT sales have sold long since, or are jaded.
When AVA6000 is approved, and sales are making big profits for Avacta - that’s when WE’LL see our own big profits too.
GLA
…where we REALLY find out what drives the share price.
Fantastic and potentially world-changing news for cancer treatment this morning. The news many of us have been waiting for as LTHs. But is it the news the market has been waiting for? Could be three things that drive this share price IMHO.
- DE RNS (great news, but only news for the potential profits of AVCT)
- LFT sales (none of us really know current sales, but this is what pumped the share price originally)
- Actual sales of AVA6000, LFT and others, creating large shift in profits
Gut feel for me? We’ll see a jump today and over the next few days as news filters out, and those who haven’t followed AVCT before now jumping in on the big increase. Then (sadly), the price will sit around 120-140p until we get FY results, and THEN might drop back to under £1 until AVA6000 and others are actually approved, or we sell millions of LFTs. We’ve seen it often enough with ‘exciting’ RNSs, and thinking ‘This is it!’.
Bottom line is all that matters for II, and I think they won’t much care today.
I’ll be holding, especially based on today’s news, but I’m not holding my breath for £2+ just yet.
Am I wrong…?
I sent a similar mail. Auto reply explains that he will not respond to non-constituents. They then direct you as follows:
If you are not a Bromsgrove constituent and you would like to write to Sajid in his capacity as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care,
please use the following link: https://contactus.dhsc.gov.uk
I resent it there.
So, not that it’s going to make a huge difference, but I know that the DHSC, Sajid Javid, The Commons Health Select Committee and my own (admittedly Conservative and useless) MP all know about Avacta/Medusa19.
So, wait… Are you calling me a hypocrite? I haven’t rubbished anyone’s opinion at all. All I’ve done is express my own opinion that a few people on here are spoiling it for me. Then, the immediate reaction from you and gje and yourself is to start throwing wild accusations around, and to rubbish me too.
Or maybe it was a wee bit too painful to have a mirror held up to your own behaviour?
Hope you have a happy and healthy Christmas.
Difference:
Negative about the company - fine. Their opinion.
Negative about individuals and throwing insults back and forth - boring and unnecessary.
In my humble opinion.
As Voltaire said ‘I disapprove of what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it.’
That, however, does not oblige me to listen to it too.
Merry Christmas.
You’re starting on me now? Look how long I’ve been on this board, and how few posts I’ve written. I support nobody, am an alias for nobody, and rubbish nobody.
I’m my own man, thank you. Take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
This is why I gave up. As far as I can see, it’s a chat board, and I don’t see myself (or any of us, really) as being qualified to rubbish anyone else’s view, to which they are entitled. Have NDN, wyndrum and others been sceptical, pessimistic, possibly even negative? Yes. But I don’t mind that. They’re entitled to their views. This isn’t an echo chamber. I read these posts to help me retain an objective view, not to hear people validating my own view all the time.
I don’t care about rampers or derampers. I do my own research, accept my current position, buy more or sell down. That’s it.
The vast majority of us want the same thing - to make a profit. This board is one of many tools that should be for our collective benefit. Life’s difficult enough without people rubbishing each other on here as well.
In my own humble opinion, that has to be said. Good luck all, and merry Christmas.
Thanks, NDN.
To be honest, I haven’t been following this board as closely recently because I’m tired of all the negativity and backbiting that I have to wade through before I find anything worth reading. So, as I’ve clearly missed the ‘discussed to death’ stuff, at least that’ll give me something to hunt for.
It’s a significant milestone, and one we’ve all been waiting for, regardless. However, this list seems to be quite intriguing:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/products-in-the-pipeline-tvg-validation-concluded-or-paused
List of products in the pipeline for assessment - where assessment has been concluded or paused.
Assuming we would come under a ‘Point of Care, LFT’ category, there appear to be seven LFTs on this list, and the reasons given are as follows:
1 under ‘ Product already being supplied by another distributor’
5 under ‘Supplier non-engagement, difficulty in obtaining technical data’
And 1 under ‘Processing through alternative routes’
We know we haven’t been ‘not engaging’ (surely!).
Assuming either of the other two are Avacta (far from certain, but highly possible?), that would suggest either :
- it is being authorised through Medusa or one of the other manufactures perhaps
- via the intriguingly titled ‘alternative route’
Does anyone know any more about whether these could be us? Given the length of time the CTDA process has been taking, maybe there are only two possibilities left - either the Government really are as corrupt as we think, or we’ve fallen into this ‘pipeline’ list for some reason. That alternative route one really is intriguing, though…
Thanks, 1marcr - appreciate the heads-up. I respect your desire not to ‘out yourself’ any more than you already have. I’ve been cautiously optimistic for a while that we will see reasonably healthy test sales come FY results in March, and it sounds like there are decent number floating around anyway. GLA.
The length of time that HUA is taking is of course ridiculous. But none of us really know the volumes they’re selling currently. I suspect we will get at least a mildly pleasant surprise in March when they announce their FY results. And by then, although we won’t have any firm results for AVA6000 yet, I do think the deafening silence will continue, as we have had no bad news yet. All to look forward to - jam tomorrow etc. But I do think they’re going firmly in the right direction, and I’ll be very happy to hold meantime. I think it’ll be H2 next year before they’re north of £2 again, though.
Joking aside - and taking no sides - I suspect there are two things going on here.
One - it’s promising news for those in the know, but AIM is not a hunting ground for a lot of institutional investor analysts, so they might not care until it hits the bottom line.
Two - it’s clear that the LFT is where most thought the short-term growth would come from.
Personally, I suspect they’re making good LFT sales, but we won’t know til March and the FY results.
GLA.
Thanks for your time in sharing these thoughts, Sarah. It’s valuable to hear from someone with your expertise.
While there are lots of frustrated holders, it seems to me that we don’t really have any strong indicators as to recent sales volumes. Results only covered up to end June, and as you say, AS and the rest of the board have no obligation to update shareholders or the market more often than twice annually. I suspect sales have been growing fairly strongly over the past couple of months. The reason we’re all excited about Friday is because that would be a really strong indicator of forthcoming sales.
For me, although I’m still down fairly heavily, I’m still confident in their diagnostic and especially their therapeutic offerings, and I’ll be holding. I’ve already got an overweight holding anyway, and won’t be topping up further, so as to manage my risk.
I’m rather hoping that the cynical side of me is right - this is starting to smell like a concerted effort to discredit the previously-trusted PCRs, so that the govt can push LFTs as the way forward.
As long as Big Al has been quiet because he’s been NDA’d, and not because Avacta aren’t ready or capable, that should be enough good news to push us back towards £2.