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Tom fair point but dd has happened and AA would need time to investigate the readings.
In an interview from 2019, someone shared here, NVS said he wanted to spend $5m on exploration over 12-18 months.
Anyway let’s see when news happens.
Lol danjo
We should hear by the end of April,
Apr don’t think it answers the timeframe, quite simply if AA can’t give a decent offer why does it take 6 months.
You simply say no and move to other suitors or go alone and then look again down the line.
He obviously wants AA and a deal will have to happen, they have a lot of cash and mcap to offer a price that works for all, if they don’t the Chinese will or another major.
Why Max? With Cheyeza East we can start going into production with very little capital costs and an interesting cash generating business. When i talk about that I dont mean we wouldnt look at anyone joining but we dont have to sell the assets or company at a silly price.
If we didnt have any options and only one suitor we would be at the mercy, but we are in a strong position if AA dont offer anything else or another suitor comes along they can always come back but will have to pay much more.
Now is a fine balance of deal negotiations, I am sure an offer has been made and they are continuing to thrash out the deal, AA is £32bn MCAP if they are clever they will offer a mixture of cash and Shares, to get us tied in, also ARCM are expecting to receive $5m for CASA next month.
I expect AA to offer a hard bargain but they know there are others circling so they will need to be careful.
Basing a valuation on the share price here is pointless it’s not a revenue generating business. What it is , an explorer that own assets in metals that will be in high demand due to the move to EV and infrastructure spending.
If you think AA will offer a small increase they know they will be rebuffed and would have done it already they could have offered 10p a long time ago and swallow it up. I think it’s not easy like that and they need to value what they potentially see, also agree 6 months was too generous. Should have kept to 3 months. We then talk to other majors or know we go it alone.
I assume with the ceo links to AA and their recent results they are the perfect partners they now need to Make an offer that is accretive or go elsewhere
We should be getting an offer before the Allotted time , won’t take them that long have had 2 months already to build in different models based on last year due diligence. They have reported to the market on last year performance now they can get on with this. Tbh I am surprised they are waiting that long as they are not the only suitors interested and they have the ability to swallow Arcm if they wanted to.
People talk about a Jv I don’t mind I want maximum return if it is a buy out and we get shares as part of the consideration which actually can be done and not impacting Anglo at all we could see real value.
What I don’t understand how much have we explored and how much copper we have assessed. Are Anglo still taking. Punt ? As I thought all the details from last year they are evaluating how much copper we have and it appears a lot but we really are sitting on a lot more which needs further digging.
Basically AA needs to give us an offer we can’t refuse or we go elsewhere or do it by ourselves . I really think these guys are smart to get agreement to fund a small mine with debt, which is cheap at the moment compared to historics.
Who thinks an offer will land in March,/April?
Due Dillingence has happened already they had 6 months at least last year. it’s now discussions on the terms of a deal and we have told them we have others waiting or have a route to free cash flow which is the game changer.
AA rising share price and lower debt they can buy us out easily and not make a dent, they need to make a good deal for their shareholders but also find that balance to win us over.
Hi apr , got you. Sorry I’m trying to value the whole business let’s see there is upside we all know let’s hope we get a good deal if not happy for a no deal and we talk with others or go it alone.
GLA
Apr think your calcs are too conservative
I guess why would we need a JV or an acquisition if after this weeks interview we have a route of debt funding to start a small scale mine.
The valuation you said about 30m fcf adding 80 to 100m is too conservative need to look at the sim of the parts and if we say that is pure profit and using a multiple of 14 which is light for a fast growing business we should be
14 * 30 *0.7 = $300m around £200m if the pound keeps appreciating also with that fcf we will be adding to the balance sheet so with free cash do they make more acquisitions , buybacks, dividends or further invest.
Truth is we have a strong position any deal with a major helps us rise further also AA can offer a deal for full takeover and issue shares there share price has been rising it would make a small dent.
So the question is what will it take for us to allow AA to be part of the party? And if they can match it.
Anyone talking about 200m I understand and don’t need to be Carried away but with most investors my view has changed that we can start producing ourselves with no capital dilution.
We still have Casa payments but don’t need for cash purposes that question was asked without it we are fully funded to end of 2022.
I don’t know why an offer is taking so long , if AA don’t come up with a number that we can’t refuse and soon we can talk to others or go alone .
Think NVS talked of a range between 20 to 40p , I think if AA offers 20p why would we take it if we have a route to go alone.
We are trying to value the whole of the company which is hard as we need to know the copper and cobalt reserves, but using their words we have multiple tier1 assets.
AA are looking at both zamasort and Zaco a and we have c70% on both as you mention to me 20p is great but cheap wouldn’t entertain a deal at that price.
Some of the valuations are being too simple
The touted 50m turnover is a small basis to get us going , I assume we have enough copper at that rate for 50 years at least. We are still exploring and finding more copper.
The above mine is to demonstrate that we can go along and say 20m fcf and using a multiple of 14 -18 times the value is 280-360 but that is basic.
Compare to greatland that was once valued 1.2bn not saying to be carried away but we have great assets and a lot of it.
AA brought in will look at securing a great deal but this week has proved they need us more than we need them. If this is a commodity bull run and I prefer average rates we could be valued higher 20p values us around 200m and that is short I think we are at least at the 400m level
Ferdie what you smoking ?
RC the oilers didn’t drop on dividends it was the collapse in the oil price , also the share price fall recently is assuming. Cut is coming.
Also the articles are stating the yield is high compared to others look, funds can’t move to many other stocks as others have cut dividends
Article basically says the dividend yield is high, which it is as the share price has fallen and they think the share price drop from the last year is reflecting a cut in the future.
Personally a small cut wouldnt be bad long term, yes the share price would drop a bit more, but it will recover if they make stronger acquisitions and build on the pipeline. But compare to Astra who have kept a dividend even when they are not as strongly covered as Glaxo and there share price has risen a lot more than GSK.
They are targetting 10 blockbuster deals, ok the cancer one flopped but its use could still be beneficial just wont be in the $1bn revenue brand in a few years.
Direct to seller is key, in the past Amazon have used to copy goods and sell as their own they can do it. Think Amazon needs to be looked at it has too much control and anti competitive.
But I admit I liked using Amazon because of the ease of search and shopping. So I am hypocritical here
Danl tech is important not just the clothing side, Ocado disrupted deliveries and now others using there tech
I said a couple of weeks ago I thought they would look
To buy the other brands other than top man looks like I was right, just lost patience and sold up here.
It’s a good move as the price being quoted appears to be risk free and there are markers for these.
As I said technology is where boohoo needs to improve on and could see that happening now. Don’t need anymore acquisitions in the foreseeable future.