George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Whilst todays RNS is good, I feel it has been tactfully issued to try and boost the SP up to the levels of the last raise as I believe we're running low on cash and a raise is imminent.
Last year they released annual accounts on the 31st of March, this year we haven't seen these announced (although the deadline is the 30th May). Once these are released, we will know the cash balance as of 30th Nov and I suspect once you account for the last 6 months expenditures, it'll be obvious cash is running short.
The IR team initially responded to a request I made but stopped short of telling me the cash position. I do actually find it frustrating when jnrs do not provide this key info in their 'updated' presentations.
Anyway, question is do others think the same? Cheers
AJ.
Thanks Spud, I have had confirmation from the company that it means unlisted public company but they're unable to divulge any further details at present. Cheers
Hello,
Quick question, please may someone explain what a UPC is and why PALM is looking to convert the aussie sub from a pty ltd to UPC?
Cheers.
J.
Yanis, no you're not honouring the mass balance. Your calculation would only make sense if the concentrate equaled the same mass as the feed. This is why in my previous post I pointed out that we simply do not have enough information to back calculate the grade of the concentrate.
If you really want to try and work out the head grade play with 22*C=0.78*f *F(rearrange to f=[22*C]/[0.78*F] and plug a bunch of numbers in for C - make sure C is in tonnes though) f is head grade in g/t and F is the size of the bulk samples in t. e.g. 1t bulk sample, produce 10kg (0.01t) concentrate: f=22*0.01/0.78*1 which results in 0.28g/t head grade. However, whats the point when we have absolutely no idea of C or F....
Jugger is right. Yanis, think more like Jugger. Although Jugger on your second comment, as Scotgold produced 300kg of galena concentrate plus 13.5t of the pyrite concentrate. The galena concentrate was upgraded from 4.7g/t head grade to 8kg/t concentrate (understandable due to the high density of galena thus easy separation) whilst the pyrite concentrate was upgraded from 4.7g/t to 209g/t. Albas sample probably had a HG of <1g/t due to the likely very small sample size and nuggety nature of the deposit so generating a concentrate with 20g/t isn't all that bad. Scale up to a sample the same size as scotgold, then you'd likely see a comparable result, comparing our small bench test sample, which likely was more like 10-30kgs, with 1 1100t sample is like comparing small apples to really large oranges.
The key point is their flowsheet works. And that's all the RNS was telling us.
Yanis,
Please read my explanation in the thread I posted earlier to understand what the 20g/t actually means.
To answer your query regarding how the sub sample confirms the processing flowsheet, you need to understand that when you have a mass of rock, you can't just run it through any old processing plant and get the gold out of it. You need to tune the processing plant in so that you can get the maximum gold out (select the correct through-put rate, correct moisture content, grinding speed, crushing duration etc etc. So by sending the small sample to the third-party lab, they were able to validate the that the process alba has selected for the plant (that they have had delivered) works. In conjunction, they will have gained valuable insight into how to set their processing facility up.
By demonstrating they can concentrate their run-of-mine ore to 20g/t and recover 78% of the gold, they confirmed the processing facility they have bought works.
So once they start their machine up, they know how to tune it in, they know they should be seeing a recovery of around 78% and the final concentrate should be around 20g/t. If they are not seeing these results when they start their machine up, they know there is an issue and will need to tweak the set up.
I hope that clarifies it a bit for you. AJM
It was a little cheeky, but then again this is AIM. But as you say, it demonstrates there is gold, which clearly is a positive.
Also, I should add, the 1 tonne I used in my original message is purely arbitrary, you could plug 1000t in and get same answer. Realistically, as Chrome said earlier (I think) it's likely to have been a small sample probably 1-5kgs.
I am reading some comments here that are not correct (to clarify, I own shares and have not sold any, but think it's important this is explained).
The RNS has not given us enough information to determine the grade of the bulk sample (for those who are saying it's 20g/t, it's not as that is the concentrate grade). I’ll try to explain it using the following.
[1] Overall Mass Balance: F = C + T (Feed mass = Concentrate Mass + Tails Mass)
[2] Simple relationship for grade, mass and metal content: M * g = K where M is mass, g is the grade, K is the contained metal content.
[3] Gold Mass balance F*f = C*c + T*t where F is the mass of Feed, f is the grade of feed, C is the mass of concentrate, c is the grade of the concentrate, T is the mass of the tails, t is the grade of the tails.
i.e. Gold going into the system (F*f) must equal gold out (Tt + Cc)
[4] recovery: Ff = R * Cc + (1-R)*Tt
Lets take a sample of 1 tonne as an example, the 1 tonne would be F in [1], the grade of that sample i.e. of the rock taken from the mine, is 'f' g/t
so 1 tonne at ‘f’ grams per ton = 'Ff' grams of gold in the feed sample. Sub 1 tonne in for F, we get 1f grams. This is what is fed into the bench test flow sheet at the independent lab.
Now we are told that 78% of that gold is recovered to the concentrate (22% to the tails), thus the concentrate has 78% of original gold in it. So the concentrate contains 78% * 1f. whilst the tails contain 22%*1f.
We are told the concentrate has a grade of 22g/t. So the mass of the concentrate * grade of the concentrate will equal the gold contained in the concentrate: 22*C = mass of gold in concentrate.
Combine this with the recovery equation, 22*C = 0.78f. We have two unknowns. Can't solve.
We can do the same equation for the Tails, using the fact F = T+C rearranged and subbing in 1, T=1-C to form the equation t*(1-C)=0.22f but we have 3 unknowns, so no simultaneous equations possible.
So, the only possible way to know the grade of the sample going into the processing flow sheet is to either be told it, or to have the mass of the concentrate, or know the grade of the tails. Everyone who has interpreted the RNS to think the grade in the bulk samples is 22g/t is wrong.
The whole idea of concentrating a sample is given away by the word used to describe the sample, a concentrate. You essentially turn some mass of rock that may be 1g/t into 20g/t.
So sorry to say some people are wrong, but it’s important to get the facts straight. To reiterate, I own shares and haven’t sold any.
Been in this for a couple months, initially in at 0.24, took profit at .58 and just came back in at 0.42 but first post here.
How do people think the market would react if VG was encountered in the UG drilling? And would the company be allowed to share this to market prior to assay results?
Cheers, J.
A link to my twitter I have just set up that contains some snippets of a piece I put together on Condor. All comes from a report that is a synthesis of a thesis I authored as part of my MSc.
The full research note was initially done to build content for a company I incorporated as a back-up plan if I was unable to secure a job after graduating. However, it's redundant as I secured a job, but I thought I may as well share my results: https://twitter.com/AJMining/status/1312322904496001024
https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Junior-Gold-Miners.pdf
Out this Thursday, Rob Tyson's Dig Deep podcast is interviewing MC. Rob doesn't really 'dig deep' but his sessions usually last around an hour so might be an interesting listen on your commute.
Can listen on a range of platform spotify/apple etc link to apple below.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast-podcast/id1440020656
I only caught half the webinar however, when MC said they'd placed a deposit & offer accepted for the 2nd hand processing plant, he did say this was simply the comminution circuit. What will be the plan for the CIP circuit (as that isn't cheap) - does anyone know whether that was included in the 50m$ figure he gave or has it been glossed over?
Seingred, my calcs were back of the fag packet type and I was just trying to illustrate why I don't like the toll milling option.
re financing & gold pour - what I was suggesting is if the company acquired a 2nd hand 1000tpd processing facility, instead of going down the toll milling route then the time difference between getting full cost of contained gold between the two scenarios is not much (agreed, I had not accounted for any time delay in actually obtaining financing - its a shame that MC has such a long lead for financing).
On the toll milling route, IMO, a profit share is the worse possible options. Most toll milling/processing arrangements (mexico, aus etc) work on a treatment cost per ton. Depending on the ore type, hardness, leach susceptibility etc, this ranges between 30-100$pt of ore treated. Ore at Mestiza is clean, hard but less hard than La India due to partial oxidation, no preg robbing species and amenable to high recoveries in a short leach duration, so if this ore was being treated in mexico/aus, it would be at the lower end of the cost spectrum. So 2-300$/oz. Much better than a 650$/oz profit share. Hence another reason I would not want a toll agreement if it was based on a profit share. It is worth noting that Calibre milling our ore would see their AIC lower due to economies of scale.
My comments would not be applicable if we were to batch mill btw.
Also, don't get me wrong, there is merit in toll milling, as it's essentially large scale trial mining and thus significantly de-risks the project from a technical standpoint. But I do not believe there is sufficient free cashflow generated by toll milling to make a significant dent in the financing of the actual 2.5-4ktpd plant that will eventually be built on our site.
Glad we agree on the costs ex-site.
Also, to add a few key points I think need to be considered. Trucking 2kt per day seems unrealistic for a couple reasons: Assuming 30t trucks at 75% capacity, 2ktpd would need 89 loads which given its an 6 hour round trip would mean you'd need a fleet of around 20 trucks assuming 24hr driving & loading which I'd be surprised if this is achievable. So you'd be looking at 40 trucks. Since it's unlikely the townfolk would be happy about trucks roaring past 24hr/d its unlikely to be feasible to have this size fleet and this frequency. So realistically, only 500-700tpd could be toll processed. Whilst the margin would still be nice, it seems unlikely the economics are grand enough to warrant this option. At 500tpd, it would be around 80oz pd so after costs, profit share, cash for Cnr is around 70k$pd, then there are tax and royalties, leaving us with around 45k$pd. Realistically prestrip + site prep + primary crusher is going to cost at least 5$m so would take 6 months to pay down. Add the 4-6months of prep work before first toll ore is trucked.
IMO, far better to opt for the second hand mill, take 6 month to construct, pre-strip whilst construction is going on. first gold pour q1 maybe q2 2021, no trucking or toll treating cost. free cashflows to CNR commence roughly at the same time as toll option.
Worth noting in mind trucking the ore the 277km. Calibre reckon they can do this from El Limon (c.260km) at 25$/t. Say 30$/t in our case to be conservative. avg diluted grade of ore in trucks c. 5g/t so per oz we're looking at around 180-200$/oz. Also, it's been not mentioned yet, but the ROM ore will have to be crushed prior to trucking to La Libertad to homogenise the ore (otherwise ore grade reconciliation differences between what we say and what calibre say will cause issues). This means double handling of ore plus cost to crust. I estimate based on similar ops else where this will be between 10-15$/t. Thus all in all, we'd be looking at a cost of crushing & trucking 250-350$/oz. This is before profit share/toll treating costs. IMO, toll milling is not as attractive as it initially looks.
Tester, the last time the Chinese came into country it didn't go exactly to plan e.g the canal fiasco. A project like La India needs to be developed by an ESG sensitive organisation otherwise it risks undoing all the work done to date by the CNR team. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see a bidding war, but the project could go in the reverse direction if the wrong companies are part of said war.
In excess of 12m$ has been raised in the three 3+ years since the last batch of drilling. I would have liked to see some holes go in in that time (I know it was a bit challenging at times in country). At the recent webinar, I put the questions to MC whether he plans to do more drilling on Mestiza & America to convert some inf to ind prior to breaking ground and his answer was yes.
So if either the toll milling or high grade scenarios are pursued, we should expect to see a drill program announced soon, covid-considering (assuming one/both of satellites are targeted before the high grade inside the main pit; pit 3,4 and 7 I think).
Without some more resource delineation soon, I say the 'early route to cashflow' options are unlikely to materialise.
Cheers Frenchie, I saw that NR but I wasn't sure if there had been any updates since because in the SP Angel note, it only mentions a 3% NRS when in fact, it is 6% in total and in addition, the corporate presentations only mention the 3% gov. Overlaying the pit locations onto the map (in NR) of concessions subject to the A&R NSR does show all three permitted pits are subject to the B2 NSR.