Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Current production was anticipated by AM to be 2400 ish by now - dewaxing condensate and flaring should support that outcomes + additional 6 wells @4800-5000 by February - if and it is a big IF AM was accurate in his assessment of bold and timing.
Onwards and upwards
Top post Wookie - not our SP timelines and probably not COPLs predicted timeline but the job gets done.
Mood definitely soured towards the end of the week but fundamentals remain the same - we don’t have to be patient but we do have to wait. I am of the opinion that the day this does explode; ALL will be forgiven and forgotten and Art knows this. He also knows where this is going and he has the two key vested interests
His own money
His family - passing this company to his daughter
So monumental motivation right there :-)
The fact that at various times we struggle with the timescales is irrelevant. As Wookie noted the job is getting done with relentless efficiency!
With every best wish for the SP to rocket sometime soon
Have a great day
It is a safe bet that if there is any one that should stop posting repetitively it would you Mr Fish. At the every least Mr Tiburn is posting useful information and consolidating that important information for the benefit of the overwhelming majority here.
Keep it up Tiburn :-) Mr Fish is an outlier in terms of that opinion, I suspect
Have a good day
ITAW
That is an interesting example . At the time WTI was $52 per barrel. There is no indication of reserves although as you rightly note >8000 bond flowing. With the expected flow by the end of December it seems reasonable for COPL to secure 4500 to 5000 bopd (existing dewaxed 2400 + 6 reworked wells 2400)without any flowing from the deeps. At $90 1400 bopd = $126,000 per day; $3.78mill; 4500 bopd =$405,000 per day; $12,15 mill. Art has confirmed and has the experience, expertise and infrastructure to reasonably secure this outcome within 6-7 weeks.
In addition to this, it seems highly likely that a joint venture will be secured, on terms unknown at this time. I doubt the RBL will continue to be pursued but it might.
On that basis, with such material increases and likely sentiment change (you may even change yours ;-)) I would suggest a very positive influence on the SP is due. £1 by Christmas - may be not. 50p as first stop - maybe. Agreed; absorbing new shares against material news and sentiment will be critical in this. So, as with all shares there is risk it could fall further if flow does not increase and there is no JV and no RBL. The probability of that seems low. The probability of an increase seems significantly higher.
We are we’re we are. We could stay stricken and wholly focussed on all the negatives and keep repeating these in an unbalanced manner - as can be evidenced from a number of posters - you included. But to what end? Balance in all things.
This oil is not in Africa. Therefore the business risks are incredibly small compared to that experience. Add to that, in one year, whilst a very painful and unexpectedly challenging journey, COPL announced and confirmed by Ryder Scott 1,000,000,000 billion + barrels of oil; likely 50%+ recoverable and does not include the whole field - far from it. Cuda secured. Flaring permitted. Remedial field works on-going. Joint venture negotiating. It would seem greedy to ask for more. We now wait for the market and SP to catch up. I expect the next few weeks will be transformational and positive based on the likely outcomes and metrics. I understand you are on a different page but posting so persistently negatively seems odd to me, ignoring the very many positives and sustaining attacks on COPL. That lacks balance and therefore credibility.
My view
Bonds will be a challenge to break through but not an anchor - a good RNS is needed given trust issues
SP could go down but highly likely to go up
50p+ by Christmas - downgraded from £1 :-(
JV with Exxon will be announced
No RBL
Posts going forwards will be polite, reasoned and reasonable (probably less likely than my calculation of £7+ in the coming years :-)
Stay positive, have a great day
I would say enjoy the ride but little has been enjoyable thus far but I suspect the coming weeks will be transformational
Onwards and upwards
Or potentially buy back shares in issue with the proceeds from the joint venture with EXXON MOBIL
Depends on your perspective, I suppose.
From this point I would consider the likely upside to be far more likely.
Try to stay positive about your investment Oiler - did you know there are over 1,000,000,000 barrels of light crude oil available? I know you want this to do well … don’t you?
Onwards and upwards
Enjoy your evening
You should be very confident of being able to get out Paul. Like you I am down from 34.5p but, as ever, looking at the business, the capital infrastructure, the geology, the geography, the geopolitical situation, the neighbouring companies including Exxon and their green credentials matching the strategic ambition of COPL ….
It is highly likely you will be selling yourself short. I feel sure there will be a queue of IIs and HNW investors only too happy to buy your shares for the ride into the £££££££S in 2023 or before ;-)
Each to their own investing plan
Onwards and upwards
Perhaps give it a rest now. I am happy to respond to your disruption in a polite, reasoned and reasonable manner. As are many others. However in response to your disruption. I will continue to post another view based on industry standard metrics to ensure there is balanced communication and metrics shared - even if they are contrary.
Have a good evening - I feel sure, like me, you will wish share holders and the company well
All the best
Onwards and upwards
Indeed ITAW instead of constantly seeking to spread fear and doubt on a share you and others are supposedly invested - show your calculations on the value. It would certainly make for a quieter and improved experience for the many on here who are genuinely invested and simply wish to make a better life for themselves, their family and quite possibly others if they make enough :-)
POSTED PREVIOUSLY WITH NO CREDIBLE RESPONSE ON METRICS
My calculationS are:
My worst case at 466,000,000 shares in issue
Fed Deep, ONE of the THREE assests. A very clear distinction made recently by AM
Assuming 1,500,000,000 barrels ultimately probable; 40% recovery rate; 100% land ownership; 85% working interest
Current exchange rate .86 $ to GBP
@ $8 US in the ground any prospective buyer will need @$$4,080,000,000
Go for 50% JV @$2,000,000,000 could change hands leading to gross income of $51,600,000,000 of which $25,800,000,000 will go to COPL
A JV seems in COPLS best interests INCLUDING ALL 466,000,000 share in issue this leads to a share price of ….
$8.76 = 7.53
Please explain using known quantities the figure you arrive at with industry standard financials...
Perhaps we could have a reasonable and reasoned debate, which may mean we agree to disagree but lose all of the nastiness - life is toooooooo short buddy
There were not many dots to join Jiddy - this will be on AM if this does not come to pass. Thanks for sharing. As other posters have noted, it seems money is approaching this with extreme caution. AM has thrown a bone to keep long term investors from entering some mental health clinic given the experience thus far. However, this appears to be about to change and all will be forgiven very quickly if this motors along ready for Christmas :-)
I remain steadfastly focussed on the price per barrel of proven and probable resources and reserves; a local company that Am can and has done business with and importantly has reciprocal trust.
Onwards and upwards
Exxon need to hand over $2,000,000,000 for half of the recoverable oil in the deeps field or part thereof. Suggesting anything less than seems ridiculous given the asset - even if they had their foot on COPL's throat £1,000,000,000 = $2 per barrel of expected recovery. This must be proved up and I believe it will be. Exxon can take that risk and I hope will :-)
COPL will then be secure and will fund half of the capital costs going forwards
Bring it home Art
No problem Oiler - insted of constantly seeking to spread fear and doubt on a share you and others are supposedly invested - show your calculations on the value. It would certainly make for a quieter and improved experience for the many on here who are genuinely invested and simply wish to make a better life for themselves, their family and quite possibly others if they make enough :-)
My calculation are:
My worst case at 466,000,000 shares in issue
Fed Deep, ONE of the THREE assests. A very clear distinction made recently by AM
Assuming 1,500,000,000 barrels ultimately probable; 40% recovery rate; 100% land ownership; 85% working interest
Current exchange rate .86 $ to GBP
@ $8 US in the ground any prospective buyer will need @$$4,080,000,000
Go for 50% JV @$2,000,000,000 could change hands leading to gross income of $51,600,000,000 of which $25,800,000,000 will go to COPL
A JV seems in COPLS best interests INCLUDING ALL 466,000,000 share in issue this leads to a share price of ….
$8.76 = 7.53
Please explain using known quantities the figure you arrive at with industry standard financials...
Perhaps we could have a reasonable and reasoned debate, which may mean we agree to disagree but lose all of the nastiness - life is toooooooo short buddy
Morning Beesty - it was possibly my post from Saturday. I must say, I am not surprised by the response to the RNS as it will take £22 million of churn top punch through the bonds - I fully expect the JV, RBL and Production increases to do this successfully. Assuming all of those warrants and bonds hit the market:
My worst case at 466,000,000 shares in issue
Fed Deep, ONE of the THREE assests. A very clear distinction made recently by AM
Assuming 1,500,000,000 barrels ultimately probable; 40% recovery rate; 100% land ownership; 85% working interest
Current exchange rate .86 $ to GBP
@ $8 US in the ground any prospective buyer will need @$$4,080,000,000
Go for 50% JV @$2,000,000,000 could change hands leading to gross income of $51,600,000,000 of which $25,800,000,000 will go to COPL
A JV seems in COPLS best interests INCLUDING ALL 466,000,000 share in issue this leads to a share price of ….
$8.76 = 7.53
So Oiler et al, looking in detail at the metrics with everything included the future is looking bright… very bright indeed. Whether the future is Monday (unlikely) or whether there will be dramas and curve balls (very likely from Monday) COPL is highly likely to be very successful. Is this a ramp, i don’t think so, it is a simple set of viable numbers that look increasingly likely :-)
Keep the faith, accept the dilution - strap in
Morning,
I am not sure I agree but happy to stand corrected…
70p (noting the Deep is 1 of 3 assets) would equate to $0.74 per barrel. I think there is confusion between the market value assigned and the actual market value of the resources. As indicated recently, we currently have enterprise value so assuming we can get to the proving drills with sufficient funds the actual resource value should kick in…
As and when that happens the proven probable should follow the figures I suggested earlier @$ 8 per barrel (assuming we are not a distressed seller - the market is assuming we are I believe). That would be $4,000,000,000. So suggestions of $100 million for the JV seem disconnected to the actual asset value. We must acknowledge the vast numbers in play here
With regard to the gross income, I agree, there will be Capex and there will be costs\ profit per barrel. But the gross income will be of that magnitude. The extent to which the wells can be constructed and paid for is a significant cost but should be paid for with profits. I am sure others on here can determine the proportion of net profit more accurately than me.
As the hedge is bought out expected market rates should apply, I would expect far more than $15 netbacks. Especially with a favourable RBL and a high WTI price likely $100 per barrel in the coming months.
Any move to buy shares on the open market will put after burners on the share price as that will be tacit validation that some deep pocketed major also tacitly agrees so the brakes will be well and truly off :- )
Happy to fine tune these figures through discussion - the metrics certainly point to a share price well above. 70p though. Indeed, if the deep is purchased at $4,000,000,000; it would be reasonable to assume at least a healthy special dividend ;-)
Stay positive these have been very tough months …
Strap in
Let’s explore why this is just too big.
Oiler et al have been relentlessly focussed on the warrants. Best to look at worst case scenario then :-)
My worst case at 466,000,000 shares in issue
Fed Deep, ONE of the THREE assests. A very clear distinction made recently by AM
Assuming 1,500,000,000 barrels ultimately probable; 40% recovery rate; 100% land ownership; 85% working interest
Current exchange rate .86 $ to GBP
@ $8 US in the ground any prospective buyer will need @$$4,080,000,000
Go for 50% JV @$2,000,000,000 could change hands leading to gross income of $51,600,000,000 of which $25,800,000,000 will go to COPL
A JV seems in COPLS best interests INCLUDING ALL 466,000,000 share in issue this leads to a share price of ….
$8.76 = 7.53
So Oiler et al, looking in detail at the metrics with everything included the future is looking bright… very bright indeed. Whether the future is Monday (unlikely) or whether there will be dramas and curve balls (very likely from Monday) COPL is highly likely to be very successful. Is this a ramp, i don’t think so, it is a simple set of viable numbers that look increasingly likely :-)
Keep the faith, accept the dilution - strap in
Hmmm… it was 6/7p that Oiler touted
Some sort of sick satisfaction of stating the most negative case repeatedly - it is as unnecessary as it is unwarranted (pardon the pun
:-))
There is risk and there are outstanding warrants but the balance of the whole picture remains positive
Onwards and upwards
Extra 600 barrels pd equates to $1,530,000; 300 equates to $765,000
Suggest that might well be the low end of production given multiple impacts: de waxing and flaring
I wonder if the SP will become as explosive as the condensate being used - roll on next week :-)
Onwards and upwards