Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
AM "There is good reason to expect the high case" - see the presentation. So many quotes - so little time :-)
Rocket ship on the launch pad - T- count ready and then it will be NT to the moooooooooooooooon
Bring it home Art
Onwards and upwards
Just watching the May 23rd 22 presentation again. I would strongly suggest any low moments full of noise, concern and potential wavering - watch it or snippets again - it is long. AM may well be a genius and have genius timing. There is much that I have green boxed recently just to stay focussed on the asset and the plan but the delays are testing that to the limit I.e. original completion for Cuda was latest July 10th stated in presentation. Setting the tardiness aside this is a monster…
I posted last week about Serica comparison - take a look. There are more shares in issue, less oil and greater complexities regarding engineering and infrastructure. Their output from 5 fields
22,200 boe/d 2021 production net to Serica
34,600 boe/d 2021 gross operated gas and liquids
62 mmboe net 2P reserves at 01.01.22
Whilst it is certain our oil must and is most likely to flow late autumn the 2p reserves are tiny in comparison yet that share price has been over £4 and is currently over £3
Having listened to Art again, I would be very surprised if this is not multiples of 19p by December/ January. Really the CPR resource report could well light the touch paper. It is worth just writing the number out 1,500,000,000 barrels at @50% recovery on a new field. That is 12 times larger than Serica! In a safe jurisdiction, with favourable geography and infrastructure.
You almost couldn’t make this up. Whilst I feel sure there will be a few green boxes now popping up, it strikes me akin to a first class flight where you ask for Prosecco and they confirm that sadly they only have Bollinger available - will that do sir?
Bring it home Art - looking forward to the news you have worked so hard for, whether it is next week or in the weeks to come this is one company whose share price has a small pin that is about to be pulled leading to a 1,500,000,000 SP mega detonation. The numbers continue to be incredible ridiculously low SP against NPV £300,000,000+; 1,500,000,000 boe
Onwards and upwards
Reviewing other companies this evening looking for comparable journeys . Serica energy 2018 onwards 272 million shares in issue, @15p to £3-4. That is in the North Sea far more complicated engineering. COPL can make the same journey potential quicker and higher.
Onwards and upwards
Nelson - great post - £1 seems to be a spiritual threshold on this BB, I am not sure it has any significance though other than it is the current COPL grail. It is not unreasonable to consider £5-10 if the oil is proven and flows at 40-50% recovery rate. Early 2023 should be interesting as long as WTI remains @$100
Onwards and upwards
Possibility - yes
Likely - absolutely not
This is a professional engineering project led by professionals. The data bell curve would allow for all sorts of possibilities positive negative - looking at both end of that spectrum to suggest something is likely when it is unlikely is a misrepresentation of the probability.
Onwards and upwards
O87 That is a little uncharitable - nobody (well a small few) knows why it has been delayed, so until there is some guide comments would be best to remain neutral i.e. we don't know. Granted it could be as you suggest but it could be a lot of other things including increased estimates. We don't know until we know :-) Sit tight tight and don't make stuff up...
Onwards and upwards
My worry is why are institutions and large investors willing to sell so far bellow the Placing?
Do we know they are? I agree with the concern but not sure we know... It certainly could be PIs impatient and institutions buying the impatient offload... time will tell
No argument their YM, glad I joined only last August - I am really not sure how you guys have done it. That being said, I think we are now rapidly heading to 'Game Time' - lets hope we all get the win we expect is due :-)
Tuesday 19th Onwards then...
Communication history suggests routine late comms therefore do not expect anything before the 18th
This is ppppppppaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuulllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
If one has any money left (I don't) these prices would seems to be 60%+ off and everybody loves a bargain
Onwards and upwards
Onwards and upwards
Trafalgar Square, London, some years ago was awash with pigeons. The pigeons were a nuisance and made a home in the square because people fed them, lots of people. There were even people selling food for others to feed the pigeons. Then it was suggested that if they were not fed - initially there was uproar and huge resistance, not least from those selling the food for the pigeons. Eventually, one way and another people stopped feeding the pigeons and today the experience of Trafalgar Square is very different - cleaner, quieter and more enjoyable for nearly all.
It seems clear who the pigeons are and perhaps now is the time to stop feeding them on this board ;-)
If you spot one perhaps pop this notice up:
This pigeon should not be fed as it makes lots of noise and what it leaves behind is typically nasty and corrosive.
Onwards and upwards
WWAL - I concur. Oil flowing is likely to only send this North substantially. I would suggest 80p - £1.20 depending on confirmed barrels per day sustained. If there is less it will be less, if more - it should be more. Trust and sentiment should follow barrels - given the damage sustained on sentiment, trust and expectation e.g. suggesting CPR would be available and then it isn't without further updates
Onwards and upwards