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the corporate presentation online is now a year old, which needs a refresh due to the C19-caused delays on the EIA. It should be all stations go with plenty of concurrent activity having taken place whilst the compnay has been waiting, so this could snap like a taunt elastic band into action!
the biggest mover in the short term is trhe resource review - how much more THM is there in the ground? Comparision to Bluejay sp has been a frustration, with us not having the spculative interest as much as some would have expected. Sri Lanka is no doubt a challenging jurisdiction for legals and regulatory activity, so we have to factor some of that in to the current sp, but these risks should evaporate as we move through the gears to full production I think.
My apologies for a slow reply on a busy work day! There are a number of options in the mix I believe; that the off-take agreements will be agreed and this financing provide the capex to do the works, with some bridge funding laid on by KLK (one of the primary shareholders before the RTO of the shell) or by another one of IIs with 76% of total shares. Some works required (namely the dredging at Oluvil port) should be funded by the government in my mind, but as with many things private money might make the more sense to get it done at the right tempo. The sand seperation plant is the main cost, with excavation being achieved with commerical plant readily available on the open markets. i'd expect the order for this to fly in once we have the mining licence and payment terms agreed with the vendor on a sensible repayment schedule.
Different time and circumstances, but I can understand your apprehension. The field details are a matter of announcing the findings and are on CMET alone, so a delay to this would be difficult to explain.
So timeline for news on increasing field size is due very soon. I’ll be keen to know how much further resource potential there is, and how this will encourage the finalisation of off-take agreements. I know capex for building the site is c.$20m, so we should be getting the financials anytime soon (on a presumption the mining licence is scheduled for approval soon in its own right).
notable & sizeable lumps being sold - it seems to marry up with the spate of buying pre-EIA and I think that's about it (especially that larger trade reported around 1628). lets hope that's the end of the punching out of the sp.
so here is my view:
1. little PR interest - most of the funding is from IIs, and they're wedding tot his in the longer term.
2. EIA announcement flattened by the fall off in AIM and C19 news. timing was unfortunately coincidental
3. Questions persist over the CAPEX funding - whilst MF appears 'jubilant' about where the money is coming from, us PIs are too frequently burnt by funding raises to believe in a promise...and a CEO's word
4. The additional drilling sampling was due by now (on previous statements made) so again people are cynical.
5. people are sheeple and will chase the next short-term thing on AIM - money back into C19 stocks i guess.
It all sounds a bit gloomy, but i think we'll see a bounce once we see more on the IML (should be pretty quick to get now) and then maybe we benefit from some detailed offtake plans (which allays the fear of a raise perhaps).
I think we're mostly licking our wounds of dissapointment today - who'd have thought we'd be 10% down on the start of the week following the EIA! I'm reassured by the WH Ireland 33p pricing at 50% value now, so continue to sit tight. If there is a fast-track IML and some reassuring news on the offtakes in the next couple of weeks, that would be great to hear.
I’ll be intrigued to see what happens today; maybe some modest volume and a flat to positive finish I expect. I think the ailing market doesn’t help, but we may well benefit from the usual Santa rally, especially if we get some details about the drilling campaign and mining licence.
I have a good sense that the mining licence will be hot on the heels - no reason for that to be held off seeing as the EIA was the key to all of this. That work was surely running concurrently and so give the departments a chance to cross-brief and it should be ready.
just catching up - fair point made Paul. you'd be mauled for stating that at the start of Q4 and to achieve all of that by the end of the year. random thought - the EIA isn't being held back by company request do you think?! that thought has played on my mind a few times as some other EIAs have come through and i struggle to follow why ours is pending, without any further RNS declaration as to why. some pretty powerful Sri Lankan influencers involved who could make it happen!
Well this is all rather slow isn’t it. Nothing on the wires about news, nothing else to stimulate any anticipation of the EIA. Over a year of dashed hopes and dreams - I joke but it would be bleddy good to get some news this month.
It looks like a schedule of things which had been on a backlog, which suggests the department is working through and clearing items outstanding. They're not small projects either, so lets hope we're in a short queue and will be at the front as quickly as possible.
I think others have picked up on why i was going on about the state of the port!!!
so ok, ports all silt up over time and you can see the cause of why this will happen. But the works to clear the port is probably a month of proper works - both from the landward and seaward side. its quite the volume of material which needs shifting out. I would expect the sands to go through treatment to rinse out any THM within (ok, maybe it might bring some income) and so thats why i'm tracking a company called TESS Ltd who're on the hook to do the works...