Everyone has an opinion...22 Mar 2026 19:32
There are some interesting takes on this board....rampers, derampers, positional posting, trying to affect people's decisions... seeds of doubt etc.
2 points I find interesting is the lasdonde curve and what price does after MRE based on what other shares did....
Each on their own has 'some' merit but to paint it as fact is wholly naive.
Firstly lasonde curve is based on AVERAGE company across all types commodity.....do you think SML is an average commodity right now? Do you think SML will produce a DFS and have to wait a year or 2 to find finance? Does a company in the UK attract finance faster than Tanzania?ors a Tier 1 project find finance faster? In an average market in an average year, with an average product, with average financials in a crowded market...yeah getting finance can be tough and take time. But seriously if SML isn't bought out by a Government, a Major mining company or have a partner already in place to finance the project before DFS is complete I'd be shocked. This has structural deficit, Gov mandates for critical mineral in a commodity very hard to replace, with a world looking to protect supplies for defence and possible future energy nervana in fusion...... and tell me this will follow the lasonde curve without any deviation have a word with yourself.
Then company x did this, so this is what company y will do.... expectation vs reality.... perceived valuation vs economic assessment. If you are over valued before an economic assessment that didn't come up to market valuation then it gets sold.... a few recently over zealous valuations then the assessments disappointed.
If SML valuation is £150m but the MRE suggests £300-400m based on the economics vs peers and their valuations, do you sell because you saw other shares sell?? Probably selling to bigger investors happy to use your liquidity to get bigger positions with a report that says the company is undervalued. Of course it could be the other way but given what could go into the MRE in data suggests that we certainly not over valued at the moment. I think you should expect to see not a glorious MRE NPV as you would hope at first sight. I think they will still be conservative on the pricing but they have stated they will provide a sensitivity analysis of which you can read across for those bigger figures and compare to peers if they have been over zealous in price of tungsten in their public figures. Close peer TUN used $1300 for some recent headline figures, I doubt we would be using v sitting higher than that for the MRE, but sensitivity will give you $2500 I should think for some big big numbers!
There will be big holders with low averages that will take shares of the table at defining moments and not to be confused with selling an over valuation. If you are going to sell at any point we remain 'under' valued do so with expectation that you may not get to buy those shares back if enough other people see the value gap.
There are gap in news sellers....SML tryin
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