Member Info for AimSurfer007

I disagree that we need a strong housing market. There are over 1m annual property transactions. Our existing market share is tiny. That's a lot of conveyancing activities that could be digitized and automated. In either bull or bear markets the conveyancing industry should be looking at efficiency savings.

Agree it's not the number of agents but more the average revenue per agent that's important. Key points I find interesting:

- 700 estate agencies currently list exclusively with OTM.
- Jan 2020 results: They had 8k branches on paying contract's. I assume 4.5k were on reduced/intro contracts given they had total 12.5k branches listed. So sizable opportunity for growth.
- They are 65% agent owned. General agent distaste for RM.

For me OTM were fighting a losing battle unless they acknowledged they need to continue to innovate on their agent and customer product offering and more importantly established strong relationship with agents to gain their trust and support for the strategy ahead. This is critically important to ensure existing agents pay a reasonable fee and those on introduction contracts convert.

Since Jason took over as CEO I've been very impressed with every move taken to date.

- Holding regular town halls with agents to listen and take onboard their feedback. After all this is their portal.
- Product development strategy based on the needs of agents.
- Acquiring Glanty/teclet to rollout in-house automated lettings platform to agent's.
- Establishing proptech partnerships to offer additional product and services to agents to improve their operations.

Ultimately I'm getting the feeling agents are willing to give OTM another chance to take meaningful market share from RM given RM are absolutely rinsing agent's and charging way too much. To me it feels like the industry in general is desperate for a portal that's on their side, charges reasonable fee and offers practical solutions they and customers need.

Boomin came to the market and raised cash at £100m valuation. They are starting from zero and have very limited brand awareness. Will take significant investment to get to where OTM is imo. For me with OTMP at £64m market cap I'm willing to back those horse given their current market position and especially after seeing the progress and agent engagement Jason has made since joining.

Let's see how over time this translates to more agents converting to full contract and how much revenue they generate from additional product and services they begin to offer to their agent community.

In 2020 RM generated £135m operating profit from £206m revenue. Their average revenue per customer is over £1100 vs ~£130 with OTMP. That's a lot of meat on that RM bone for OTMP to bite into.

Just announced 66 agents joined last week. Very impressed with Jason's ability engaging with agents and the new direction of travel here. Looks forward to their progress, taken a position here.

Available online now.

Should get a trading update soon? Given significant increase in property transactions in H2 I expect well get a positive update and strong guidance on H1 2021 forecast.

Will be interesting to see if the need to process cases faster has led to increased adoption of DigitalMove amongst the conveyancing industry.

I'm also curious to see how the CEO communicates his vision for DigitalMove and what they have in the pipeline if revealed.

Do you have anyone on this board working in the conveyancing, or mortgage lending sector's? Would be keen to hear thoughts from the within on this Digital transformation.

You don't give 100% funding out on day one, income over the next 12 months will contribute towards final costs.

Sometimes you're already sitting on a golden egg, just need to wait for it to hatch:)

Rhum is planned to produce until 2030 or so. When was Erskine supposed to go offline or significant reduce production output? That baby has been gashing well beyond intial plans. Imagine if Serica can keep Rhum online into 2035? Success North Eigg exploration result will certainly help and be a complete game changer.

One of my biggest gains was from RR so I'm not going to say anything bad about AA. It was a great share and AA very aggressive with deal making but people were very quick to ignore the background $760m decommission liability, and let's not forget the Foinaven asset recently got taken offline
early vs expected 2025 end date. BP the operator so can't blame RR but it shows their dead making due diligence was slightly shortsighted, or maybe part of the strategy. Don't want to be negative there some good deals done there but long term they were not easy assets to extract value from. Selling them on was a smart move so credit to AA.

Reminder that by standing still we are printing at least £50m annual FCF well into 2020s at decent gas price levels. If anything getting debt will be harder for pure oil extraction but gas assets should fare better. That alone could present opportunity for SQZ to jv into development assets. Ultimately there will always be investors looking for value and value we have here.

Eventually if they don't find suitable target's the best acquisition they can make is buy back shares followed by returning funds to shareholders.

I'd much rather be in our position than minors looking to fund development projects.

All in good time imo

All good points I didn't realize that. So more freedom on debt and deal structure from 2022. Either way exciting future and opportunities ahead.

I doubt there are any terms in the BKR transaction blocking Serica from additional transactions, either with BP or otherwise. For bp It's a simple case of maximizing value, for Andrew and Shearwater PMO initially offered BP $625m, I don't think Serica had any intention of matching that. The deal later got reduced to $210m and still fell through, likely due to their merger complications.

Serica are in amazing position to maximize value for shareholders, plenty of cash, don't need to be desperate and over pay for any aging assets.

Life of our existing field's have already been extended from 2026 to 2030, that's very significant and ignored by the market.

North Eigg exploration drill next year could be game changing. Could turn out to be another Rhum. I'm glad they are going at it alone and not selling a stake. Imo the downside is limited. Ok drill might be unsuccessful but success is not priced in anyway. Successful outcome very significant.

100% of net cash flows from 2022.

I mean, find me downside from here? :)

I guess there is still selling from many of those in profit that's keeping a lid on the SP, hopefully over time that will dry up and others will eventually see value here.

I can image you taking your car for £40 MOT and the uproar you cause when the mechanic tells you need to fork out £80 for repairs :)

You can't be serious here, you really expect all North Sea complex operations to be on time and on budget?

@tenton if that's your view you probably shouldn't be investing here. Plenty of other stocks out there for you I'm sure with management you can trust? No point complaining, I'm looking to add this morning, each to their own.

Don't think it's available yet to the public, on the investor call I'm sure they said rollout starting with business clients.

Don't be shy, what company are you a CEO of? To embarrassed to say? :)

Maybe people should invest in you wise one? Is your company publicly listed?

What you say is true but you completely fail to focus on opportunity with such cash balance. Lack of recent drilling activity impacting production numbers.

They ended 2018 with 3,677 boepd. That incresed significant with successful drilling campaigns, are you you saying they have no chance to stabilise production on the current assets?

People were saying the same in 2018.

New CEO did an interview with vox markets today. Came across really well imo.

Not acceptable? You make it sound like it's within their control :) what's acceptable is taking the time it takes to get the job done.

You can't seriously blame management nor the operator here without having inside knowledge on the technical challenges they had to overcome and steps taken.

Serica shareholders do like a moan :) I get you might expect transformative deals every year but that's not reality. No rush here the company is a safe investment and the sp will pop when time comes. Want some excitement, diversify. Plenty of stocks out there.