Member Info for AIMOilking

Now that the shorters have taken cover and we have positive sentiment returning having hit the 280p base line, I think the day traders will return which will make the intraday ride a little bumpy and possibly have a slowing effect on progress but I think those that are long will benefit most over time.

Some of the tranches of shares I have bought are now in profit - now that is upside!!

This has turned and will continue swimming against the tide, I think we'll see some of the lower broker targets being revised as a little bit of momentum take the sp higher. A couple of the lowest broker targets are in my view achievable in a very short time scale and are going to look a little ridiculous as will my tax bill if it three bags in short order!

US equivalent price is 3.6% ahead of UK sp, if the market sentiment is good tomorrow, MCRO could fly!? Some good news would also help! Even a director's buy!

Me to!

I think that we have spent a week testing the 280p level and it has held in difficult market conditions. Today's 20p swing shows just how quickly things could change in a positive direction, let's hope w can now sit back and watch the sp climb.

58 point market drop and the 280p level has held, even after yesterdays more dramatic market drop - I think this bodes well.

Power , I agree with you, a 205 (3.35%) point fall in the FTSE100 and MRCO is still hanging in there at the 280p level, if this level had been significantly broken on a day like this I would have been worried, actually quite pleased with MRCO's performance today. Again, perhaps proof we have found the bottom resistance level. Jumped in with a of LGEN when dropped 4% today (sold 225.5 yesterday) only to loose another 4% this afternoon! Makes MCRO's 1.6% drop pretty damned good show.

Comeonvog, totally agree with you, the Corona Virus has turned us into traders but worse than that trigger happy traders e.g. make a couple of quid and bale out. Punters are sitting at home glued to their screens drinking coffee and making rapid and often unfounded decisions. I believe that in the past most punters road out the little peaks and troughs in a share price, now a negative report, an intraday downward trend and peeps press the button, those that have gone for pee return to their screens and panic - press the button, those that have gone shopping and put limit orders on - automated button pressing, then those that have gone out for the day really panic and you have guessed it - press the button. Ooh the price has dropped let's venture back.......... The thing is with MCRO is that panic has gripped the sp, the shorters and their derampers have focused on the share and the sp has been oversold, I think the 280p mark is the bottom of the barrel, the tide will turn and over time the sp will clime with long punters pressing the button with relief as their averages are hit. The problem with MCRO is that is not like a factory receiving orders producing units of product. MRCO is a more complicated business model, yes there is a large amount of debt but that is managed (confirmed 2024) but there is a very profitable business that is spinning off cash and the thing that everyone misses is that MCRO is embedded in its customers with comparatively long term service contracts and that equals massive FORWARD ORDER BOOK! Plus MCRO has cash on its balance sheet, surely sufficient to find its way through the current crisis and the management is sufficiently confident to make important decisions such as not paying a dividend (short term), acquiring other assets and making a significant right off when perhaps they might have managed it to make the statement look a little better. It is also clear that the management have skin in the game as they are required on being appointed to the board to acquire 200% of basic salary in shares and hold them for two years after leaving post. Management bought big tranches at 700p+ I believe not so long ago. If the share price stays low they will have to buy more to meet the terms of their contracts, so I expect announcements on that front. DYOR, we are bouncing along the bottom but I think MCRO will perform well compared to the FTSE and most sectors of the market even with continuing problems with the pandemic.

Chunky trade at the end on an otherwise slow day, someone thinks tomorrow will be a better day.

I was thinking the same, the swings in sp can be quite significant and there was significant underlying profit before the £1bn right off, so a return to profitability is surely on the cards and the company generates a lot of cash. In the last report, I believe they stated a 40% margin on business which is impressive by any standards. Given that contracts will generally generating income over time, Microfocus is also in the lucky position of having a forward order book that other companies can only dream about. What I have noted is that the number of daily trades seem to have reduced considerably reducing the churn and tendency of punters to panic when a downward trend gains momentum. I think that this and the bumping along the 280p level must be the turning point, when all the shorters close that will confirm my opinion that things will get better.

We have had three days of the sp bouncing along and just above the 280p level, this would appear to be the new base line of resistance. A little annoying the relatively in significant announcement about the CEO's minor share sale of options, poor timing , a purchase by directors with hard cash would have been well received, what we need now is some positive news and updates to reassure sentiment which has been badly knocked and eventually a view that the company is healthy enough to resume dividends. Even a couple of presentations to investors assuming there is a positive story to spin would also help. On the basis that 280p is the bottom, I believe well reasoned positive new will rapidly push the sp up and probably to 400p mark for starters. DYOR - still holding and realise it could be a few weeks or months rather than a few days.

This is interesting and I quote from the 2019 annual report:

"Executive directors’ shareholding requirement Executive directors are subject to a shareholding requirement of 200% of annual base salary. On joining or promotion to the board, executive directors are given a period of time to build up to their requirement, typically five years. On cessation of employment, executive directors are to maintain their full shareholding requirement (or, if lower, their actual level of shareholding at the time of leaving) for two years after leaving employment. This applies to shares delivered from awards granted after the approval of the new policy at the 2020 AGM. Post-cessation, executive directors will be required to hold shares subject to their shareholding requirement in accordance with the Company’s designated mechanism from time to time in place."

At that time the CEO held 39640 shares to meet his commitment 100%, since then the share price has tanked so one presumes the BoD are doing everything in their power to get the sp up otherwise they are required to buy a whole bundle of shares and hold them. Not noticed this type of requirement placed on BoD members before but it does mean they have some skin in the game whether thy like it or not!

Noggers - change platform!

Not a good start but dipped in for a tranche at around the 281p to bring my average down another 4p, we just need some positive news from the company, plus some directors buying would not go a miss or buy back to fill the void in news.

Anyway looks like MCRO have hit the bottom and starting to recover some of today's poor show.

Rather than sell, I am hoping that the MCRO Board will take the opportunity to buyback shares with some of the cash being generated as an alternate way to reward investors and protect the company from a takeover at a low price.

Went over 326p+ in the US intraday high when the DOW was down 1.31%, may the climb continue tomorrow.

Oh no they are not - 314p!

Heading that way with 310p in the UK and 3.175 already in the US. Happy Days and a way to go yet now that "things" have settled down and results have been digested.

Power, I agree with you some of the broker ratings are so far out at the moment to be positively laughable, the trouble is that some of the herd follow their sentiment, so a downward sp with downward broker re-ratings is not helpful, however wrong or inaccurate they may be. I have a lot of MRCO but my average is relatively low, just have to sit tight and enjoy the ride in due course.

Goldmans re-rated MCRO to 345p, a bit of a downer but that is still more than 50p above the current price and the average between them and Barclays is 382.5p, so hopefully double bottom haveing hit March's low and we should start heading in a positive direction - ever hopeful. Seems stronger buying trades/size at the moment.

A lot of debt but secured through to 2024. The nature of the company and its contracts mean that it effectively has a good order book going forward which is spinning of cash with an overall margin of 40%. It is true some customers out of the 40,000 will go bust, not be able to pay or go to another supplier but the latter will not happen over night. MCRO will win new business and is developing 500+ new products a year. It is also likely that MCRO will pay out a reasonable dividend. So, yes they have made a big 1bn right off but hopefully that is forward thinking in terms of anticipating any bad business or post Corona market conditions. In my view MCRO has been considerably oversold, partly because the market and shorters jump on any bad news and partly because the IT business model remains alien to a lot of not so smart analysts. From this point, I believe we'll see a steady rise, after all cash is king, the shorters have had their fun and will be squeezed and then well see MCRO reach £4 with little effort and company good news along the way will accelerate the sp rise.