Member Info for AIMOilking

Some news at last or in fact several snippets, 50%, approvals, intention to drill and finally record gas revenues (which we knew, but bodes well for next report), plus we are waiting for the Netherlands drill results.

Let's see what the market thinks this morning after the sp dismal performance yesterday thanks in part to the EU's pronouncements.

Many thanks - some wise words.

Added a small number this morning, I know I said only below 30p but could not resist!

Tarmak, I had another look at your spreadsheets - good of you to share.

I thought of an interesting exercise which I am afraid is beyond me, but I put it out there. It would be interesting to look at another O&E company and somehow complete a comparison of cash generation, profit and assets such as tangible assets reserves and tax losses and debt etc compared with MCap. This might give us a benchmark for the sp and if and by how much ENQ is undervalued compared to a peer or peer group of companies. Is this something that has been done recently and if so do you know of a link?

Obviously, I can compare balance sheets but I am not sure how to perhaps weight or value comparable "assets" to come up with a reasonable comparison that might project where the sp should be. I may just be over complicating it and a little lazy! However, I will take a look.

Tarmak - very interesting.

Only comment is that I am expecting a nice little surprise at the full year, slightly higher yearly production than your projections.

Apologies 33m figure relates to something else.

Good point about Ramaron, about the potential of a hostile bid/lack of major stake building and I am assuming that ENQ is fairly tightly held from what I can see. If the eight major holders with a total of 46.72% are in control of their voting rights that leaves just over 50% for the rest of us - does anyone know roughly how many shareholders there are in total? Just a gauge of how widely the shares are distributed.

I see that ENQ has bought back 33m shares, are buy backs likely to continue? Do we know if AB is going to continue buying? These two scenarios could certainly help the sp and I had hoped for a RNS late in this week or perhaps next......they will keep us amused until a dividend is announced and the next set of results.

Regarding 100% in one company - no - too much of a gamble. I have tried that sort of strategy which is fantastic when it works and disastrous when it does not - I now prefer a few irons in the fire, it might not get the adrenaline going as much, but typically there are more numerous excitements and less time to wait between them. Having said that if the sp drops below 30p for no reason - I may be tempted, it would be rude not to!

ENQ is very much on my mind at the moment as a real investment opportunity and as a result I have broken some of my own rules and approx 25% of my portfolio is now ENQ. In justifying this position, I have been going over some research and also had a look at the last presentation. Given that ENQ is profitable and will likely become increasingly so, the figure of US$2,627,700,000 or in Sterling £2,259,822,000 stands out. This is the current level of tax losses as of the end of the last reporting period that can be offset against future profits. At this point, I need an accountant to work out the potential benefit, but I reckon the benefit in terms of future reduced taxation is greater than the current MCap!

Am I right?

Given current ongoing expenditure in addition to recorded losses, it is going to be some considerable time before ENQ will feel the full force of taxation and plenty of time to rapidly manage the current debt and fill the coffers with cash.

Now the down side to this is that ENQ is a hugely attractive take over target because it is not just an undervalued cash generating proposition, but a well run asset rich and profitable company with massive tax losses on the balance sheet.

I think AB fears a take over bid before the true value of ENQ is realised. AB and his associates have increased their shareholding in the company to 11.44% and as a block are the largest single holding on the company. The size of the shareholding gives some small sway in defending against a hostile takeover and ensures some benefit should the situation arise. Any profitable company succeeding in taking out ENQ would immediately benefit from the tax loses and any cash to the extent that they would get ENQ almost for nothing, if you assume the debt would be managed in months rather than years and a simple asset sale would remove that liability at the stroke of a pen.

Undervalued - cash generative - profitable - easily manageable debt - massive tax losses - variety of quality assets - operating in politically stable areas - management team that is competent and delivering..............need I say more! DYOR

Comments welcome.

You be right, 100p is entirely possible.

The trouble is reality - TC has not brought the goods home as anticipated years ago - so increasingly frustrated. Still have a significant profit on PMG but to see the price drop from the high 70's is frustrating. If we go sub 50p, I will start accumulating again, but glad a switched new purchases to ENQ which I now see as a better bet or more certain bet. Still remain long on PMG, hopefully for early GPA news.

It appears that despite today's rising gas price and markets, PMG is drifting down on the basis of no news.

TC - needs to keep shareholders informed.

Thank you for posting the link and the Audiocast is well worth watching, I thought the top team presented well and it is clear there is a lot going on and there seems to be consistent over achieving in meeting targets across operations and financially. It looks like the Malaysian operation will come up trumps as they sighted a gross daily record last seen three years ago, so Malaysia may pick up any slack from ageing wells or temporary shutdowns. The BoD is very progressive in their thinking on carbon capture and renewables, plus there are plenty of drilling opportunities being progressed. The fly in the ointment was the profit levy but I don't think that will make much of an impact. Returning value to shareholders was a recurrent theme although AB was a little hesitant on the time line and method (buybacks or dividend), I think he is keeping his options open until O.5 is achieved and any refiancing is in place, plus perhaps having a clearer view on capex going forward 2023 and beyond with these new projects.

I am left thinking that this is a serious takeover target, I hope this does not happen before ENQ's real value is realised.

Added another 10% today, I am very confident and I think this will be demonstrated by new broker targets like JPM's (47p) today. ENQ have bought back 33m shares to end August, I expect we will see more back backs short term and even the odd RNS with AB and other BoD members buying. DYOR

We should see a few more positive broker reviews and I look forward to Barclays, as their analyst either needs to go back school or eat an enormous humble pie! The mere fact that the positive results are out and the forecasts (even in this uncertain world) are very positive. As I have said before, I reckon that ENQ's balance sheet is improving by at Least 2p per month, so making a forecast from the recently published balance sheet should be child's play. In a steady state we should be 41p is six months without taking into account a de-risking balance sheet and higher profitability. Roll on a few more positive reviews......... and some positive ENQ news.

I am not sure posters have fully appreciated that the rapid reduction in debt, which does wonders to the balance sheet, also correspondingly decreases financing costs which will also help and accelerate balance sheet improvements. Put it another way, increasing operational costs will be offset by reduced interest payments.

Just added again and in the absence of any other news, I hope we get an RNS confirming more AB buys post results and given this mornings dip.

It would be nice to see 33p again and it stick this time, then steady rise from there, I would be happy with a couple of pence a month but suspect any substantial rise will be quick. Still think 48p is reasonable bet in short to medium term. DYOR

Added sub 60p - now just waiting on news, hope it comes soon otherwise we'll drift lower with a lowering gas price and uncertainty. At least news on the Dutch drills should be fairly quick even if GPA takes a little longer, although a planning permission application for wind turbines would tide us over.

Continue to be disappointed with the sp - but continue buying as it drops - ENQ will have their day.

Thank you R, we'll just have to see how the rest of the week/month unfolds.

Thanks Doyle, uplifting news on an otherwise dull BB - thanks to a rather dull PMG PR strategy - we need some good news!

After such good results, a disappointing sp at the end of the day - patience required.

Off the top of your head - does anyone know roughly what the ENQ reserves are worth?

The update provides lots of recent historic figures, but going forward I wondered what the reserves might be worth to a predator when compared to the current MCap?

Stupmy, that is now also my reading, but my guess is that with 30m being paid back a month and excellent prospects, they will back for the next rise. I have to say that I just see today's dip as a buying opportunity and added another 10% to my holding, now second largest in portfolio, with MCRO being the largest due to recent takeover. I now see ENQ as a takeover target as it is so under valued, even with debt and the latter is changing fast. Half a billion for these licences, producing assets and proven reserves must be a target for oilers and hedge funds. It is true the market is gittery but uncertainties are be resolved but the market cannot denied and undervalued share pumping out cash approaching equivalence to MCap for long.

For a medium sized company, rarely do you see such a good set of results and excellent management of outstanding finance.

ENQ is paying down an equivalent of 5% of ENQ's market cap every month! The share price should be going up on that basis alone by 1.6p a month. This has gone from a "no brainer" investment to one of those investments that you have to really stupid to miss and which only comes along occasionally like the buses around here. Increased holding by 10% on the news and if we are not up at least by 10% today, I will be very surprised. ENQ deserves an immediate re-rate based on these results. Well done AB and I was particularly impressed with the US$89.9 a barrel, higher than I expected given the hedging in place. Excellent news.