Half Year Report29 Sep 2023 11:40
It has been a very frustrating 12 months and feels as if everything possible has gone against us. IMO If this was trading today it would be a buying opportunity. For traders its painful but for longer term holders its just a bump in the road. Is all the bad news now out the way?
What am I looking at?
-We are now consistently making $200m EBITDA per year
-Terms have been agreed with Niara debt providers and will conclude very soon. This totally transforms the risk profile of Accugas and is the beginning of realising true fair value of 62p for the asset over the next 24 months
-We have to my knowledge been winning the majority of the court rulings regarding CC nationalisation and stands us in good stead to receive compensation and damages for the abrupt nature of the Chadian Govt. I expect roughly $100m net profit from the failed transaction and $500m in total which once materialises (might be 24 months) will be a huge boost to wiping off future debt from acquisitions
- Regarding Niger, Benin has assured China that their pipeline project will be allowed to progress, I expect a delay to first oil but expect 5k bopd within the next 12 months, again just a delay to realising revenues from the asset
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- Regarding SS its hard to determine what will happen but I would hope AK has learned his lesson from Chad and not to progress unless SS full support is given and the debt payment contract is based on oil flowing and will be halted if flows stop due to sudan war
- I am confident another acquisition is in the pipeline and will be announced within the next 3 months regardless of what happens in SS
Overall, as always when operating in Africa there are bumps in the road and delays with things that could have gone better but slowly and surely we are grinding towards becoming a larger more resilient company and when you zoom out over a 5 year period I have every confidence this will be just another bump in the road on Savannah's journey to becoming a multi billion £ co