Member Info for africanobserver

Almost zero value would have been assigned to PGS' 45% share of Azimuth. So far, PGS has wasted well over $140m on Azimuth by contributing 3D surveys and Multiclient data. That $140m figure is the amount that PGS has already WRITTEN OFF and it is extracted directly from PGS annual reports. At this stage in time, Azimuth isn't worth much more than GBP.

TGS is not bidding to buy PGS, they are just bidding to buy PGS' multi-client library. They want the legacy data, not the big expensive custom ships.

So much talk of imminent news... But what are we left with? The sound of one hand clapping ;)

As I wrote at the time:
A tragic result for shareholders. Hate to see people lose money and opportunity. This is exactly why I wrote previously about the insanity of supporting Kononov and his ilk. Voting for a Russian boss and a Russian board rather than a British board and a British market listing is simply masochistic. Crimea, anyone? Donbass? Ossetia? Oligarchs? Novichok? No? All fake news? Voting to give such people control seemed like a good idea, did it? What's next? A voluntary lobotomy? Despite the unadulterated idiocy of the EGM result I do sincerely wish everyone good luck and hope that shareholders get their money back ASAP. Finger crossed on your behalf.

To those who supported Kononov and liked the idea of handing control to the Russians... How do you feel now?

Par for the course with this mob, unfortunately. Just wait and see how quickly LandOcean's outstanding payment gets "disappeared" or restructured. ;) That's what this board game is all about.

Interesting conjectures Geowiz. The Namibians did just give GBP an extension on block 94 so they clearly have a positive view of GBP's efforts to date. Why would they behave any differently when it comes to block 29?

Also possible Marmited, I agree that Namcor won't want to see GBP lose an asset. They'll help out with an extension on some sort of reasonable terms.

So they'll do some sort of deal in which they relinquish part of the block in return for an extension.

I reckon they will get their extension. Namibia is pretty easygoing when it comes to extensions.

Are you talking about the WSX - HNL story? That ended when HNL went off market? There were no large multiples of market cap in that story at all...

Seriously Jim... When is the last time (if ever) you saw a micro-cap public oil company bought out for 15x-20x its market cap? Especially a micro-cap oil company with no wells or discoveries...

Eco Atlantic has a discovery on its books (albeit with heavy oil), it has c£18m cash in the bank, it has a bigger acreage footprint in Namibia than GBP, it has already acquired 3D seismic over a collection of its prospects - and yet ECO is only valued at c£39m!!!! Subtracting cash, its valuation is only c£21m.

There is NO way on Earth that GBP is currently worth anywhere near as much as ECO. Come on... If Eco is c£39m (or £21m excluding cash) then GBP can't hope for more than a single digit valuation until it does something tangible - like farm out and/or drill a well.

If you want another reference point then look at the recent BPC - CERP merger, did you see any major premiums there? No.

Your 15-20p price targets are just not based on the reality in which humans actually live.

cue: explosion from Jim ;)

For a good ten years now GBP's management have doggedly pursued a single strategy - Farm Out. They've quite sensibly conserved cash by buying legacy seismic data and producing CPRs and farm out presentations. They've appeared at a million different industry events singing and dancing like leprechauns on speed... Their message has always been the same: we want a farm out.

With a market cap of £2-3m it's nigh on impossible for them to raise any material funding. The oil investment markets are also thoroughly constipated at the moment... Panmure might get investors to squeeze out a £500k+ brownish nugget, but that won't go far at all. It certainly won't get any 3D seismic acquired or any wells drilled. Panmure might also be able to find a counterparty for GBP to merge with, but that would only help if said counterparty actually has cash...and if they do have cash then GBP will be swallowed whole and its existing shareholders will be diluted to f&%K in the resulting entity.

To advance its assets GBP has to acquire 3D seismic and then drill well(s). Such an adventure will cost many tens of millions. The only two realistic ways forward are to either: 1 - farm out to a substantially larger, much more well-funded partner, who can afford 3D seismic and drilling, or 2 - arrange for GBP to be acquired by a substantially larger, much more well funded counterparty, etc. Anything else would just be a can-kicking waste of time.

Yawn.

Substantial stake building... huh. Because the market makers allegedly loosened up 1.8m shares? That's worth a grand total of ....c£21k! Wow, very substantial.

These broker's notes mean very little. They always contain massive price targets based on theoretical volumes of oil that may potentially be found (or not). The 152p figure is just a meaningless, pie-in-the-sky, abstract figure.

Something tangible and real has to happen to reset GBP's value. Hopefully a farm out. That would be a great announcement. A merger? Hmmm, all depends on the counterparty, the combined valuation and whether or not the resulting entity is better equipped to raise funds and drill. But brokers' notes are as pointless as a fart in the wind.

If there is any news coming, I still bet that it's more likely to be a farmout than any sort of merger with Azinam or anyone else. Let's see though, stranger things have happened.

Anyone interested in a vote?
A - a modest placement
B - an RTO by Azinam
C - a farmout to SeaPulse and/or other parties
D - simple speculation based on random noise

You're right, we should remain civil. And I will never use emojis again! haha. I don't know what came over me... Too much texting with my girlfriend I fear. She gets grumpy if I don't include a smile. Hopefully the odd emoji will brighten Jim's day too.

Sorry if you are not enjoying this. I thought that the purpose of boards like this was to facilitate debate, not just to post prices and buy/sell volumes.

Jim is clearly optimistic about GBP and is pushing it hard. Where's the harm in providing a different perspective?

Here's an interesting thought or two for you Jim, see if you can follow.

Seacrest effectively owns all of the Azimuth oil companies (Azinam, Azeire, Azilat, Azinor...). At the moment, all of these companies are private and Seacrest can use various methodologies to estimate their value when presenting results to its limited partners. If any of those "Azi-entities" went public via an RTO or IPO or whatever, then the public markets would establish their values. Clearly, Seacrest doesn't want that to happen in the current environment because public markets are likely to assign a lower value to the "Azi-entities" than Seacrest would want.

So what does Seacrest do after its failed attempt to IPO Azinam? It creates SeaPulse, which is a "single source" drilling contractor combining offerings from Maersk, Halliburton, Enquest, etc, with money from Seacrest. What does SeaPulse then do? Well so far it has only farmed into assets held by Azinor in the North Sea, despite hilariously promising to conquer the world. Why would Seacrest bother with all of this? They did it quite deliberately to ensure that Azinor does NOT have to turn to public markets to secure funds for its drilling program, because such an event would crystalise Azinor's valuation for all the world to see.

If Seacrest has money (which is far from certain) then it will almost surely use SeaPulse to apply the same approach to Azinam. If they don't use SeaPulse, then why did they bother creating it?

On the other hand, if Seacrest doesn't have money, then its "Azi-entities" should be avoided like the plague because they all have a lot of expensive drilling commitments that will be very difficult to fund.

This is fun :) Thanks for playing along!