For what it's worth I think you're probably right Marmited.
If GBP's managers were in talks to sell the company outright then they wouldn't bother suffering such huge dilution for a paltry £1m, which is barely enough to keep the lights on throughout 2021. There's almost certainly no merger/RTO on the way either.
In PGS' Q2 2020 Earnings release the company wrote off another $25m of their investment into the Azimuth Group. Azinam almost certainly has no money and no ability to complete an RTO with GBP, no matter what Jim dreams in his little bathtub.
Speaking of Jim, our resident ramper is surprisingly silent since his screwy speculations were proven wrong and his fabled investment at 0.9p sank underwater...
The only thing likely to boost GBP's valuation in the forseeable future is a farm out. I suspect that they are desperately buying time and praying for success in Total's upcoming well.
Jazbo, you say: "Why not do some research"? Regarding what? The length of time that Peter Hill has been in saddle? Well, it doesn't really matter if he's been there for 7 years or 9 years...either figure is still ridiculous given the utter lack of progress achieved.
I actually love your quote: "Global has an experienced and driven management and technical team both in Australia and London."
That's quite funny when you think about it, because it means they have more offices than actual oilfield assets*! Hilarious.
(* PEL 29 and 94 are contiguous blocks from a geological perspective, divided on the map by an arbitrary border, so it's entirely reasonable to claim that GBP currently has just one asset.)
Gosh, you'd think Peter Hill would cough up more. He's been in place for how long? 7? 8 years? During that period he has drawn well over £1m in salary and collected various tranches of options. But what has he achieved? Next to nothing... An extension or two, and...??? No farm out in SEVEN years!!! The company only has two blocks....what the heck does he do with his days?
Good question Bishop. Apart from the upcoming Total drilling event, the Namibian oil sector is full of tumbleweeds at the moment. Azinam has no money, Eco needs a new farm-in partner to share drilling costs... If a credible new entrant is pushing to acquire PEL 29, then GBP could be at risk of losing it. But if there's no-one knocking on the Namibians' door (which seems to be the case) then they might decide that it's better to retain GBP than to let the block sit alone and unloved. (Better the devil you know...etc)
This is extracted verbatim from GBP's 2019 Annual Report:
"In late 2017, the Company also negotiated and agreed with the Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy (“MME”) an extension of the First Renewal Exploration Period (Phase 2) of the Company’s Licence of 12 months to December 2018. At the same time the MME had previously agreed entry into the Second Renewal Period (Phase 3) effective from 3 December 2018 for a period of two years. Subsequently, a firm work programme for Phase 3 was agreed with the MME whereby the Company will undertake various studies, including mapping of source rock, mapping of contourites deposits, fault studies and amplitude versus offset analyses and extended elastic impedance studies on seismic data.
The financial commitment to undertake the work programme is estimated at US$350,000. In addition, and carried over from the First Renewal Period (Phase 2), is the acquisition of 600 sq km of 3D seismic data – contingent upon the Company concluding a farmout – and the drilling of one exploration well."
So basically, to retain PEL 29 under the current published terms, GBP needs to acquire 600km2 of 3D seismic AND drill a well before 3rd of December 2020.
Clearly, impossible. Utterly impossible. So, we just have to hope that they can secure ANOTHER extension...
Yeah, Geowiz, I also wonder if we can expect any good news soon...
GBP still had enough cash to survive until early 2021; they weren't desperate.
If management actually expected good news (PEL 29 extension, farm out, etc) within the next few months then they would have waited until after the announcement to raise funds at a higher valuation.
Instead, they have bitten the bullet and raised money under horrendously unfavourable terms.
To me, that suggests that GBP is unlikely to be generating any value itself in the near future. Instead, they're just trying to keep the lights on until someone (Total, Eco, etc) drills a well and inspires a new wave of excitement across Namibia.
Another consequence of this event... There is NO WAY that management is even contemplating a merger in the near future given that they have just publicly come out and valued GBP at 0.75p!! They have no wiggle room left in negotiations any more because the public markets have just placed a concrete figure on GBP's current valuation. This company is so tiny...any sort of "merger" activity would involve GBP getting swallowed completely by its counterparty and the Peters won't want to give up their precious little lifestyle business.
Look at the way the placement was structured with warrants and a massive discount!! This scheme allows the incoming investors to have their cake and eat it too... They will receive their shares at a 0.75p subscription price and then sell them in dribbles at 0.9-1.1p over time, thus securing somewhere in the region of a 25% return. And then if the share price does magically pop above 1.5p they'll exercise their warrants and sell more shares! A structure like this is almost guaranteed to hold back share price growth until these new investors have completely sold out.
The terms of this placement are massively favourable for incoming investors and enormously unfavourable for existing holders.
Seems like a bit of a mess... An absolutely horrible placing price. 0.75p? My god...
I feel sorry for anyone who listened to Jim's blatant ramping over the last few months and subsequently lost their pants. What were you saying, Jim? Proudly spouting that you bought in during a recent dip at (what was it?) 0.9p?? Great. It seems as though you got ripped off ;)
Hopefully these placing funds will be used to secure an extension on PEL 29. That would be helpful. I would also hope that a conditional extension has already been pre-arranged and that there will be good news soon. It would be a tragedy if this latest million is simply used to keep the lights on for another year while the Peters hope and pray for a farm-in partner.
For anyone out there who still believes in the value of brokers' notes, I hope this event inspires you to be more cautious. All this talk of 15p and 150p and billions of barrels... It's just noise. It's just a pie-in-the-sky fantasy designed to generate unfounded excitement. What investors SHOULD do, is to think about the steps and the funds required to advance the assets under current conditions. If GBP can't make tangible progress - via 3D seismic, drilling, etc - then those fantastic valuations will always remain exactly that - a fantasy.
I remember some posters recently stating that any placement would likely be done at a premium. Hmmmm. And what really happened? Funds were raised at (approximately) a 50% DISCOUNT to recent highs in August/September. This is par for the course with GBP... The company has been hovering in the 1-2p range for over FIVE YEARS!
We can't change the assets, they've been cooked by mother nature for millions of years. But it really has become time now to CHANGE THE MANAGEMENT!!!! They are absolutely moribund...like ancient mummies undergoing fossilization. We need fewer "Peters" and more managers with a pulse who can actually negotiate farmouts and extensions.
Someone - who shall remain nameless - has repeatedly pushed the idea of an Azinam - GBP reverse takeover. In reply, I've noted that this would be a disaster because the owners of Azinam (Seacrest and PGS) have lost hundreds of millions of dollars during their misadventures worldwide and would not be able to add any value to the combined entity.
These posts on reddddit below lay out the case in detail, using extracts from companies house, public webpages and even from PGS' own annual reports. Every statement in the summary is back up by independent references in the supporting materials. It's quite a fun thing to read!
I'm not really into this debate on which block is better - 29 or 94. Personally, I don't think anybody knows at this stage. In contrast, I sincerely believe that GBP needs both blocks to survive and prosper.
In Italy, GBP's license applications have been stymied by arguments over Environmental Decrees, which have now been referred to the European Court. Resolving this issue will take time, unfortunately, as do all things in which the EU is involved.
So in reality, GBP is a Namibia-focused oil company. Which is fine.
However, all oil companies try to maintain a portfolio of multiple assets so that they can mathematically spread risk (geological, commercial, political, etc) over a collection of unrelated, uncorrelated properties. If GBP loses PEL 29 (heaven forbid) then they become a "one block - one well" company, which is exceedingly risky. Their entire future would depend on drilling and succeeding in PEL 94 alone.
That's why I wrote below about the "circular" challenges that Peter is likely facing when attempting to raise funds. Most institutional investors like to know that their placement funds will be used to pursue a range of feasible options, any of which could generate the returns that they seek. Asking investors to fund a company with only one block is like asking them to walk into a casino and risk all their money on just one number and one spin in roulette. It is possible that there are some funds willing to take such a risk, but I think it's pretty obvious that holding more assets will generate more institutional interest.
That's why I want the company to keep both blocks in Namibia.
I imagine that there is some sort of circular - chicken and egg conversation going on between the Namibians, GBP and Panmure.
The Namibians are probably saying to GBP: "We'll give you an extension on PEL 29 if you raise funds and commit to a revised work program...and possibly find a farm in partner for your assets"
Whereas Panmure is probably saying much the same thing in reply to GBP: "We can raise funds if you secure an extension on PEL 29 with a modest work program commitment...and possibly find a farm in partner for your assets"
It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I have many fingers crossed on behalf of the Peter Posse :)
Awwww Jim, you're so puerile. I have nothing to do with any of those other participants whom you routinely list. Obviously, you are unable to deal with the facts and evidence in my posts and therefore have to resort to making spurious links between the various people who disagree with you. Every time you can't deal with the objective facts in a post you vomit mindless guff about the person who posted it. Try to focus on the stock itself, if you can.
If I had to give GBP a rating I'd actually call it a "long term speculative BUY".
Indeed. The 3D seismic with Namcor is a positive development, as I noted. I hope it helps GBP facilitate a farm out, that would be an excellent step forward.
Hopefully they don't farm out to Azinam, because Azinam's funding position must be pretty tenuous given that M&P kicked them out of two blocks for "non payment". Also, Azinam already has a presence in three blocks near GBP's, so it's unclear why they would need or want another one in the same neighbourhood.
Oh dear, the latest stream of effluent from Jim is remarkable...
And I quote: "Online bid slowly ticking up 1.33p". Honestly, who cares? Anyone who can read a chart will realise that GBP has traded in the range of 1-2p for at least the last FIVE YEARS! Any movement within this 1-2p range is utterly meaningless...it is just the random walk that all shares experience during periods without meaningful news flow. Ridiculous ramping from Jim.
Hmmm, what's next? Ahhh Azimuth. Well actually Jim, Azimuth has had that same website for at least five years also. And the only mentionable changes during that period were the deletion of the "Azipac" assets, which they lost because they couldn't afford the work programs. Don't believe me about Azipac? Then just google "frank inouye azipac" and read for yourself.
What about the other bits of Azimuth?
There have been no announcements about Azilat since 2015... So that one is another yawn-fest.
No activity in Azeire at all other than license awards and extensions.
Azinor was unable to farm out any of its North Sea prospects, so they had to turn to another Seacrest related entity (called SeaPulse) to attempt a drilling campaign. They announced their intention to drill in 2020 but no rigs have been secured, no specific timing has been announced and nothing appears to be happening at all.
And Azinam...well, as I pointed out previously (and I can provide the link again if you've forgotten) Azinam tried and FAILED to complete an IPO several years ago when the oil price was much higher than today. Since then, they've walked away from a few blocks in Namibia and failed to do anything on the blocks that they still hold. So, they're hardly a good spouse for GBP.
Zeta Resources provided most of Seacrest's funding (Don't believe me? Then read it yourself in Zeta's annual reports). Originally Zeta invested in Seacrest at $1 per share but over the years this value has consistently fallen until in recent reports Zeta valued its shares in Seacrest in the 20-30c range, meaning that Seacrest has LOST 70+% of its value since inception and surely ****ed off its biggest shareholder. If Seacrest had any funds then they wouldn't be shedding portfolio companies (Azipac), or walking away from assets in Namibia after spending tens of million on seismic surveys, and they would certainly be drilling in Azinor's blocks as soon as physically possible...but they are not.
I do agree with you that GBP has better blocks than TRP, in Namibia. I also agree that Peter's announcement about his seismic deal with Namcor was positive.
But for the life of me I can't understand why you speak about Impact / Africa Energy / Total in South Africa??? Geologically, these blocks are a million miles away from GBP... I'm pretty sure that someone is drilling wells near Vladivostok too, perhaps they are also relevant to GBP? hahaha
I'm talking about the Walvis basin, Jim, and you know very well that Exxon is out of there. Check Azinam's website and even you can read that there is no Exxon in PEL 44, for example.
Who exactly is waiting for forced sellers of GBP stock and why would there be any forced sellers in the first place? Anyone who feels "forced" to sell an AIM listed penny stock clearly wouldn't own a sizeable stake. You think there are mythical vulture funds lurking in the shadows waiting to scoop up a few thousand pounds worth of GBP stock from non-existent forced sellers? Hilarious.
Jim, you recently attempted to brag about a GBP stock purchase at (I don't remember your exact number) close to 0.9p. What sort of paltry sums do you deal with? The volumes available when GBP dropped below 1p were tiny... You couldn't possibly have accumulated more than a few £k at prices below 1p. What are you chasing? A 30% gain on a £2k investment? Pathetic. Not even worth the effort. That's probably why you are here pumping everyday, trying to push up the price to turn your nanoscopic gamble into something that at least qualifies as microscopic.