Member Info for Afon

Analysts are forecasting a large increase in CPI due to ongoing geopolitical events. This would increase UKW RO linked cashflows.

The UK government decided to transition the Renewables Obligation (RO) scheme indexation from RPI to CPI starting 1 April 2026.

Https://progressive-research.com/wp-content/uploads/data-sync/research/BKS%2020260316.pdf

The energy in the wind is proportional to the cube of the velocity. Optimum is generally around 15 m/s for most large wind turbines. For example, 8 cubed is 512, and 10 cubed is 1000. So a seemingly small increase in velocity can actually have a dramatic impact on energy output. Anything approaching the long term UK average will see a significant improvement in power output compared to recent years.

From Jan 2026 some States have brought in tougher user verification requirements. I asked Gemini AI to analyse this re GBG:

>>

Revenue Dependency

The Identity segment is GBG's largest, accounting for 56% of total Group revenue (£159.0 million of £282.7 million for FY25).

US Market Performance: The US remains a critical growth engine. While specific dollar amounts for betting-only revenue are not always isolated in high-level summaries, GBG has noted that its Americas Identity business is a key priority for turnaround and growth, recently stabilising after previous leadership transitions.

Service Role: GBG provides the essential "know your customer" (KYC) and age verification infrastructure for major US platforms. This is part of the roughly 95% repeatable revenue model the company relies on, driven by high transaction volumes from onboarding new bettors.

Impact of New State Regulations

New state-level regulations are expected to increase demand for GBG’s services through several mechanisms:

Market Expansion: As of early 2026, forecasts suggest that if all 50 states established legal markets, aggregate gross gaming revenue would increase by $15.6 billion annually, more than doubling the current legal market. Each new legal state creates a fresh wave of customer onboarding requirements.

Volume Growth: The US sports betting market is projected to reach $20.2 billion by the end of 2026, up from approximately $13.7 billion in 2024. This trajectory directly scales GBG's transaction-based identity revenue.

Tighter Compliance: Emerging regulations often require more sophisticated verification (e.g., biometrics and multi-bureau solutions), which aligns with GBG’s high-end product launches like GBG Go.

Prediction Markets: The rapid rise of prediction markets (forecasted to become a $1 trillion industry at maturity) introduces new regulatory risks that necessitate the exact type of identity and fraud services GBG provides.

<<

That sounds quite positive, but still a lot of short interest. Place your bets!

RWS Secures US Patent for AI That Predicts Translation Effort at the Point of Authoring

[LINK REMOVED]