Member Info for afbouer

Thanks Bamps, every time I look a the scale of this future mine the mind boggles.
I think a railway is the long term answer.

Thankyou Bamps for your constructive comments.
I enjoyed your recent interview. Havieron is a fantastic orebody.

My analysis of ore transport, Havieron to Telfer mill, total capacity 18m tonnes per annum
Assume Havieron tonnage to Telfer mill = 12 m tonnes per annum
Assume no stoppages, mine and mill operating 24 hours /day 365 days per annum
Daily tonnage to the mill = 12000000/ 365 = 32876 tonnes this is a very big operation
A sorting plant at Havieron will be necessary to reduce the large waste tonnage transported by 30%
Assuming No sorting, I have tried to assess the massive transport operation.
Using Caterpillar CAT 797F Ore Hauler
Hourly tonnage to be transported = 1370 tonnes
Distance Havieron to Telfer mill =45 Km round trip 90 Km
Top Speed of Cat797F ore hauler =68 Km/Hr assume 60 Km/hour
Rated gross machine weight 623690 Kg
Payload = 363 tonnes
Width of truck = 9.87m (used to determine road width)
Capital cost of the Cat 797F =$US3.4m (2021)
Time for a round trip mine to mill = 1.5 +1 hours = 2.5 hours
Allow for loading, unloading, daily inspection, daily refuel and change drivers (4 times)
Fuel tank 2000 gallons US, Fuel consumption 77 gallons US/Hr, Can operate 25Hrs on one tank
One truck delivery rate to mill = 363/2.5 tonnes per hour
Number of trucks required to operate =1370*2.5/363 = 9.43
Assume availability 90%, Trucks required = 9.43*/0.9 =10.4 say 11 trucks
Capital cost of fleet, 11*$US3.4m = $US 37.4m (2021)
Major cost factors to be considered.
Can one mine with one decline produce this tonnage?
Vertical shafts for man and skip hoisting will be required
Waste sorting at Havieron will be required to reduce the number of trucks required to 8 trucks
Capital cost of the fleet, to spread the cost, a truck leasing contract might be considered
Running cost
Maintenance workshops for these huge machines to be built and artisans trained
All weather road to be construction wide enough and strong enough to bear the weight of the trucks. The road width recommended by manufacturer is 3 times truck width, =3*9.87m = say 30m
In my opinion this is going to be a massive mine with a long profitable future, I hope I am around to bear some of the fruits.

To reduce waste tonnage being transported to Telfer mill and to improve the head grade to the mill, a waste sorting plant at Havieron could be installed. The Rambler copper mine in Canada is planning a waste sorting plant to remove 30% of waste rock from the ROM tonnage to improve the head grade and to reduce costs. There are numerous examples of mines using waste sorting plants to improve NPV.

The present life of Rambler Ming Mine is 20 years at the planned production rate. Post share consolidation my research gives an NPV of $US 918.7m ( £685.6m) and a share value of £6.40 per share. Step out exploration drilling will no doubt increase the present resource and the LOM.
However this value is without the resources of the 100% owned Little Deer and Whalesback mines 140 Km from the present processing plant and close to the port facility.
Little Deer /Whales back mines are already equipped with a decline and a vertical shaft to the 240 level and are interconnected on this level and they are also open on strike and depth. the resource will be increased with further exploration drilling.
the two properties have the following JORC resource and a completed PEA (2011)
Indicated 2708000 tonnes @2.16% Cu with 129.1 m lbs Cu
inferred 4191000 tonnes @ 2.07% Cu with 191.3m lbs Cu
The PEA gives an after tax NPV @6% =$US 86.7m and an IRR of 21.5% ( Cu price $US 3.75/lbCu)
In my personal opinion with Cu at $US10000/tonne this share is seriously under valued but as always DYOR

As a retired mining engineer I have valued the company’s NPV post share consolidation.
The NPV discounted at 7 % of the company based on the mining plan of producing 1350 tonnes of copper ore per day and the current prices .
NPV @ 7% = £ 270 .94 m, consolidated shares = 107.31098677 m
NPV / share =£2.50
Valuing the mine post turnaround plan, I calculate the NPV=£685.5 m giving a NPV/ share of £6.40

Opinion
Mine Economics12 Apr 2021 17:37
My valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Copper/Gold mine Q2 2021 using 340 working days per annum.
My first post gave my analysis of the mine economics prior to the latest turn around plans.
The NPV @7% discounted was calculated to be £270.94mil with a share holding of 10.69bil
Estimated NPV /Share was 2.53pence
I have recalculated the economics taking into consideration the latest mine plans and up to date prices.
my revised NPV discounted @7% is calculated to be £685.61mil the share holding is 10.709bil.
Revised NPV @7% discount per share is 6.4pence based on the following data.
Year 2021 tonnage milled per day (tpd) 1350 @ 1.8% Cu, 0.52g/t Au and 2.69 g/t Ag
2022-2024 sorting plant will provide a higher head grade to the mill requiring increased ROM tonnage ie,
H1(first half)2022, 1600tpd. H2 2022 2000 tpd then 2000 tpd thereafter until 2025.
Sorting H1 2022 15%,H2 30% sorting thereafter 30%for LOM.
Head grade increases H1 2022 2% Cu , H2 2022 2.5% Cu
2025 Duck pond mill will be relocated and milling capacity increased to 2400 tpd with sorting the mine will require to produce 3450 ROM tonnes. The head grade will be 2.59% Cu.
Total post tax costs will reduce from 2.49 $us/lb Cu in 2021 to $us2.13/lb Cu 2022 to $us 2.03/lb in 2025.
Capex figures used in NPV calculation , figures obtained from various company reports.
Initial Capex $us 18m, recently raised Capex $us15, sustaining Capex over LOM $us 27.9.
The prices for Cu, Au and Ag used are present day prices.
LOM
The present mine resource is 23.448m tonnes. I calculate that total tonnes milled during LOM (20years) to be 22.89m tonnes. Any increase in resource discovered during the mine's stepout exploration program will increase the LOM beyond the year 2041. this is highly likely.
The new mine plan ,if executed successfully . on time and within budget will dramatically improve the mine economics.
My updated calculations give an NPV discounted @7% to be $us 918.717mil = £685.61 mil
shareholding 10709098673
NPV /share = 6.4pence
This is my own assessment , please do your own calculation to confirm or shoot down my valuation of 6.4pence
This share is seriously undervalued.
Afbouer

Latest metal prices , Cu 4.205 , Au 1765 looks good

If the turnaround plan is executed successfully on time and budget I calculate the mine valuation as, NPV @ 7% discount rate = £685.6m, shares issued 10.709B, my value / share = 6.4p.
I think this share is seriously under valued

fr4nky280682, have a look a Canadian miner, Rambler Metals, copper/gold mine.
M&I 25m tonnes @ 2% Cu, 20 year LOM .

This share ,my detailed analysis values it at 2 pence with the current mine infrastructure,
However with sorting of 30 % in 2022 and commissioning of the Duck pond mill in 2025 my detailed calculationI values this share at 6 p, but DYOR . This share , with the forecast dramatic demand for copper in the near future, and long term, is a great opportunity for me.

My valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Copper/Gold mine Q2 2021 using 340 working days per annum.
My first post gave my analysis of the mine economics prior to the latest turn around plans.
The NPV @7% discounted was calculated to be £270.94mil with a share holding of 10.69bil
Estimated NPV /Share was 2.53pence
I have recalculated the economics taking into consideration the latest mine plans and up to date prices.
my revised NPV discounted @7% is calculated to be £685.61mil the share holding is 10.709bil.
Revised NPV @7% discount per share is 6.4pence based on the following data.
Year 2021 tonnage milled per day (tpd) 1350 @ 1.8% Cu, 0.52g/t Au and 2.69 g/t Ag
2022-2024 sorting plant will provide a higher head grade to the mill requiring increased ROM tonnage ie,
H1(first half)2022, 1600tpd. H2 2022 2000 tpd then 2000 tpd thereafter until 2025.
Sorting H1 2022 15%,H2 30% sorting thereafter 30%for LOM.
Head grade increases H1 2022 2% Cu , H2 2022 2.5% Cu
2025 Duck pond mill will be relocated and milling capacity increased to 2400 tpd with sorting the mine will require to produce 3450 ROM tonnes. The head grade will be 2.59% Cu.
Total post tax costs will reduce from 2.49 $us/lb Cu in 2021 to $us2.13/lb Cu 2022 to $us 2.03/lb in 2025.
Capex figures used in NPV calculation , figures obtained from various company reports.
Initial Capex $us 18m, recently raised Capex $us15, sustaining Capex over LOM $us 27.9.
The prices for Cu, Au and Ag used are present day prices.
LOM
The present mine resource is 23.448m tonnes. I calculate that total tonnes milled during LOM (20years) to be 22.89m tonnes. Any increase in resource discovered during the mine's stepout exploration program will increase the LOM beyond the year 2041. this is highly likely.
The new mine plan ,if executed successfully . on time and within budget will dramatically improve the mine economics.
My updated calculations give an NPV discounted @7% to be $us 918.717mil = £685.61 mil
shareholding 10709098673
NPV /share = 6.4pence
This is my own assessment , please do your own calculation to confirm or shoot down my valuation of 6.4pence
This share is seriously undervalued.
Afbouer

I was thinking that the sorting plant, hopefully to be commissioned in Q4. Will dramatically increase the head grade to the mill in addition to higher grades from the stopes. To me the future looks mayI say golden

Oiltap. If I use my annual free cash flow of £33.83 , the number of shares as 10.694 billion and Cornishknocker’s price earnings of 8, you get the same answer of a share value of 2.53 pence so with possible increased tonnage, grade , and reserves in the future and increased LOM a 10 bagger is very feasibile

Sorry , should read NPV

If you include Cu, au and ag I calculate the annual free cash flow as £33.83 m, I calculate the NVP@7%. Discounted for life of mine excluding ramp up to 1500tonnes per day to be £270.94m. The share holding is approx10.694b. So the value of NVP/ share =2.53pence. If the calculation is done with the ramped up tonnage and waste rock sorting , whenever that is phased in. The share price could be in the region of 3 pence. But that is another calculation.

Au eq 3.962m ozs