We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Bananaman not sure I understand your post. I mean what do you propose we do with all non recyclable plastic (aside from phase out its production over time)? Surely SAE are making the best of it they can with this pellet solution?
Its a time of national crisis in which there is global competition for scarce resource in some forms of testing, including antigen lfts themselves and some of the materials that go into making them. Lots of NDAs can exist in this kind of environment with the aim of protecting current and possible future supply lines
Yes certainly where BAMs would go next. It said so in the recent PIN on Bidstats. Basically we are in phase 2 clinical validation in the gomt programme and phase 3 involves larger field style trials for 12 weeks starting probably second half of december. These trials will involve a lot of throughput probably and bring significant income.
Pharma often v risky nut this one already quite advanced and so lower downside eisk. Tons of upside. Second biggest holding average 110. Happy to let it develop over next several years. Will try to stay rational and sell if it makes sense nut that would be a wrench because its approach to medicine is so close to my heart.
On why it could double or treble on good clinical validations, my thesis is that it becomes a shoe in that large contracts and manufacturers will come on board and it will scale rapidly in the jan to april period. Govmts will push their lfd manufacturers to come on board in order to guarantee supply to their own countries. And then, as noted by several in this thread, great performance data brings in not just the short term traders but the discerning who realise the wider long term potential has been clearly demonstrated.
In any case if it doesnt double or treble of good performance data it becomes all the more reason to buy more. Its a bargain now because the analytical data look potentially far better than innovas and Elisa test indicates the potent quality both here and for specificity.
Youve got to think what news will come out. I think
minimum pre xmas is good clinical validation performance data for BAMS and good small scale study data for the LFD. 150-250 sp
Add TT for LFD 200-300
Add good clinical validation data for LFD 250-400.
The other increases would come on greatly expanded manufacturing for BAMS and LFD plus also sales. These will start coming in January most likely and will keep pumping the sp as they happen. So could reach a tenner by Feb or March at least.
The podcast with rick brody talked about the problem of false positives with innova leading to staff being off sick. So they have limitations. But definitely some use cases are much more needing of high accuracy than others, eg. Dentistry
Falcon tweeted on 17th that Avacta was part of the national smass spec initiative. The natio al initiatibe is government run and therefore would appear that Avacta have it going through both the govmt validation process and its own. The govmt initiative is half way through clinical validation phase at 6 sites with about 3 weeks left to go. The conclusion of Avactas own initiated validation may come a bit sooner. Either way if govmts like the performance figures and the test as a whole contracts may well end up being signed in mid or late December
Obviously 300 is much better than 400 but I am interested in whether anyone can roughly quantity its betterness in the context of mass screening. Anyone have a scientifically educated guess at least?
Also on Pls point evidently our test could in theory dominate the lfd market but to do that to a high degree and quickly we need to gravitate a lot of manufacturers to producing it. Of course we could license the affimers but I dont think that would be particularly effectively as the licensee would spend a lot of time creating a test rather than a month or so tech transferring our test ( tech transfer from one manufacturer to another is a lot quicker that tech transfer gor the first). We could in theory have demand for perhaps billions of tests a month and producing that many will need a lot of big manufacturing partners
Says innova 77 per cent sensitive. But catches 90 per cent of those with higher viral load who arw likely to be the most infectious. Being used 2 x weekly on nhs staff. Even at 99.4 specificity there are quite alot of false positives. Not just an issue for confirmatory pcr. One round of testing creates 3 off sick false positives for every 12 true and also 3 false negatives which is also a problem. See girl up norths thread for fact that avacta lfd has much greater analytical sensitivity than innovas. Hoping that translates into much less false negatives. It could also be more specific, reducing false positives.
Seems best role for innova is to use in high prevalence areas on general pop - will enable isolation of some a and pre symptomatics at least.
They are critical of lamp sensitivity.
Now talking about antigen with analyser - mentions several portable ones like. Now talking auto analysers - not point of care but sent off to lab - which would mean mass spec etc.
What difference will good diagnostics make. They are commenting on need to map car pathways following tests. Will be useful in emergency care. Also many use cases in community like schools, uni, travel, care homes etc..
Discusses possible use of antibody alongside vaccines
I bought in just before the placing, in the placing and at many different points since from as high as 190 to as low as 95. I would be genuinely surprised if any current holders are still underwater by end of december and astonished if we were still come end Jan.
I think the sp reflects a jadedness with timing drifts and what PL calls the fluff rather that simply the vaccine.
But when the market is pricing only hard cold facts its a very good time to buy when you think at least some of those facts are finally going to be delivered.
Who on here actually doesnt think we will get great BAMS performance figures in december and who doesnt think that this will bring significant sales? Who thinks we wont get early lfd data and tt transfer in December? Not many I think. So its a good time to hold and buy just before everyone else jumps in on the hard cold facts that will be coming in rnses
Okehurst. Im not clinically expert but I though Innova actually have the same problem. Their website gives mid 90s sensitivity but its for people tested 5 days in. Then when its used for mass testing it inevitably picks up a much lower percentage of those infected.