Member Info for Aether

How do you calculate a TO price?

Potential sales like before?

That was a sp of £5 per £1b of sales a year.

"Having notionally 'benefitted' from a £2 SP on anticipation of Sprinter P3, the reverse is now true post 21 Feb with a very pessimistic £0.25 SP. Whilst, Fincap may be sitting on the fence in one sense, I would also expect that (post A2P2 .. with expected good results) the previous anticipation level, particularly with a confirmed A2P3 (or similar) could quickly return."

No.

The sp will increase significantly BUT not to previous levels (>£2) because the market for the product is smaller than before.
Also, it might also ebb afterwards as has happened with recent good news.

"In short my expectations (based on the above) are for a hopeful return to at nearer £2 later this year, with any earlier offer <£2 being roundly rejected (by Poly at least). Then, as we get closer towards expected results of an A2P3 (or similar c. Q1 2023), an offer closer to £4-5 may be likely to prevent paying a lot more (£5-10) post A2P3 (good) results. All wishing thinking and dreaming at this stage of course."

I suspect after good Activ-2 data (particularly because of the genetic work from patient blood samples; this didn't happen with sprinter) we will be included on another paid trial.

However, for the sp to rise and stabilise at a new trading range they will wait until any clinical trial is successful.

Thank you, Billy.

I think this share can and will come good if the ducks line up but it is not guaranteed.

This has been a stressful share to hold and hard life lesson.

Correct, Manifesto :D

There are a lot of ducks to line up.

But it is possible.

If the Activ-2 data is good and we are included in a clinical trial AND the US continues to support anti-virus measures, there will be a TO.

Hi Size82

"IMO, either will lead to authorisation and sales which will result in many multiples on my investment. I stand by that. I also think 12 to 24 months max is a realistic timeline."

They will have to pass the endpoints of their clinical trial before authorisation is granted.

EUA is harder to achieve now.

"Aether, my interpretation of the Numeris sp target is not the sp after a successful trial has been conducted, but just to get one started."

220 for inclusion on a clinical trial when the potential sales are much smaller than before The RNS?

NO.

Why would the share price rise to previous highs when the potential sales are now for niche patients and the market is correspondingly smaller?

In my opinion, the market wants strong evidence this IS going to be commerialised rather than COULD be commercialised; hence, the recent slide in sp after good data news.

The only thing that will increase the trading range and stabilise it at a new level is successful passing a clinical trial or news of a JV or TO.

All other good news will slide after a day or so.

After The RNS, the market is (rightly) wary and so should we.

How do you predict the sp?

Before The RNS, the figure of £1 Billion sales gives £5 was bandied about.

Has that changed?

What sales can we expect for the niche COVID market now?

"I expect (hope) to receive many multiples on my investment within the next 12 to 24 months (and hopefully sooner)."

Numis says we can get 220.

It can happen but not with Synairgen in control. We need a JV or TO.

This can recover but will require the ducks to line up: Good Activ-2 data and inclusion on a paid for clinical trial.

Plus continued support from the US, WHO, etc. for inhaled interferons and safeguarding against COVID. That is vital.

Let's hope the genetic results from the blood samples taken from patients is good.

£1 to break even.

GLA.

Hi Size82

"... is exactly the very reason why I don't want a takeover on the cheap."

As I stated, time is is of the essence now:

1. There are competitors on the horizon (for example, Eiger). More will appear and sooner than expected.
2. Money in the bank is finite. Even if we have free clinical trials... 24 months.
3. Covid is becoming more infectious but less severe. So, harder to prove in clinical trials. Other uses will require other clinical trials.
4. Clinical trials will potentially take a long time this is a risk given competitors and finite money in the bank.
5. A small company does not have the resources of a large company in terms of resources and political influence; so, a larger company is needed to get this over the line.

Wait over a year or more for good clinical trial results with the risks outlined above?

NO.

So, time is of the essence.

I suspect the COVID Bill will pass through the house in the US.

Then:

1. Good ACTIV-2 data will be released (that includes the important genetic data that SPRINTER didn't have).

and

2. We will be included on at least one paid for clinical trial.

Then, either a TO around the break even price *OR* after an initial increase in sp it will again settle at 25p and we wait for the results of the new trial.

A TO is the quickest and safest (and least stressful) way to extricate ourselves from this share.

Big Pharma are aware of SNG and how lucrative it can be.

*****Big Pharma will know that buying a company early will be cheaper than buying a company later.*****

So, they may want to buy this now and run the clinical trial themselves to get it across the line.

There is a lot of money available to buy new companies.

I hope the genetic data and health outcome data from ACTIV-2 are good!

£1 to break even.

GLA.

Time is of the essence.

RISKS:

1. There are, and will be, new competitors (for example, Eiger) and the standard of care will continue to improve. I was really surprised how quickly the vaccines were developed and the improvement in the standard of care...

2. The money in the bank is finite.

3. I suspect "the system" works against smaller companies. The company lacks the resources and political influence of larger pharamceutical companies. A larger company would probably have got this through trials by now.

A TO is the best way to extricate from this company.

So, we need good ACTIV-2 data, inclusion in at least one paid for clinical trial AND these depend on the COVID Bill going through the house in the US.

What do Polygon want? I doubt they'll wait years whatever the decision.

£1 to break even.

GLA.

We need:

1. Good ACTIV-2 data. This will include genetic results from blood samples - valuable for any pharma for commercialisation.
2. Inclusion in at least one paid for clinical trial.
3. I suspect both 1 and 2 depend on the COVID Bill going through the house in the US.

THEN, a JV or TO *might* occur.

Polygon will want OUT at least close to their break even price.

They might even want a successful P3 result.

I'd favour a quick TO because there are other potential competitors on the horizon.

£1 to break even.

There might not be a decision on releasing ACTIV-2 or a funded trial until the Covid funding Bill previously referred to is passed.

If the ACTIV-2 data is good, the genetic data from the blood samples combined with the patients health data will be very useful.

More stable changes in the trading range will occur on:

1. Good Active-2 data.
2. Good Long Covid data.
3. Incusion on clinical trials. It looks like this may not happen until the Covid bill passes through the US legislature.

Larger and more permanent changes in the trading range will occur on:

1. JV. Increases dramatically if any of the previous three occur.
2. TO. See above.

The positive mood music from the WH, WHO, NIH, and Gates Foundation suggests people are interested in inhaled interferon.

This needs to happen within 24 months.

I'm not buying anymore.

Will try to average down further with some trades on sharp rises.

Back testing two of the recent big rises to 42p and 35p recently, Fast Stoch, RSI, and Williams%R using the free Hargreaves Landsdown TA software identified when the sharp falls would occur. Not at the peak but close enough.

I was tempted to buy more but will instead trade on the next rise if the technical analysis stars are right.

£1 to escape.

So, it now looks like we need The Covid Bill to pass through the US legislature in addition to good Activ-2 data, and as a precondition to getting on a sponsored trial?

If it does pass through the legislature, the NIH will have a lot of money to spend (including us) but if it doesn't pass...

Also, could this reluctance to release data be because of the blood works and corresponding genetic markers that can be identified in Activ-2?

If the results are positive, they could be commercialised and used to target relevant patients.

Don't feed it.

Green bin it.

Done.

It sounds a lot like Andyb.

What they need to stengthen their negotiating position for a TO:

1. Good Activ-2 data.
2. Good Long Covid data.
3. Inclusion on one or more clinical trials.

If this happens, we will be TO by a larger pharma.