Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
KumKuat, the BNG historic cost ($250k/month) is a red herring. We've been paying that since Sept'19.
It's only become an issue because as usual Clive tried to deflect the blame on someone else for the cash squeeze. He didn't expect the market would react so badly to his whinge-fest.
It's not a tax but money the Kaz gov has already spent on BNG for Casp. BoD should grow a pair and pay what they knew was coming when they first took over BNG. A fair settlement would be to perhaps get a payment holiday of 18months in light of covid. They have dragged their heels on BNG and I side with the state on this one. Either get on with drilling and get production up or return the license to the state so somone else can have a go.
They main finance issue is the oil they owe local traders and the interest on loans to Kuat himself. Get those sorted and export 70% of MJF.
With all 9 wells operational the net back income from MJF will be around $1.2mil/month (POO @ $40)
The only expense after that is the $250k/month BNG cost & salaries.
If they don't drill anymore they can bank $500-$750k/month profit. More if they get yelemes.
Clive painted a dire picture in interims to hide the fact that they wasted 2 years moving assets around when they could have been drilling MJF.
Additionaly, flow a deep and that $250k will look like the bill for a typical night out for the BoD.
I think they have learnt their lesson and we'll see a JV soon. The historic cost is the right kick up the backside IMO, for them to now start moving quickly on the deeps. I wasn't happy with the structure by structue deal either because I knew it gave Kuat the oppoutunity to delay the deeps forever ... which he did.
10p coming soon.
That 100m of oil hasn't gone away. They have more data now to negotiate a good JV deal. BOCO were offering 18p.
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/roxi-petroleum-secures-us20-million-investment-as-second-deep-well-makes-good-progress/
jonesy
https://www.caspiansunrise.com/shareholders-questions/
#VAL is valued at 30mil. This is the same company that had placings every quarter. Diluted so much that shares had to be consolidated 1:120 ... twice. Never earned a penny. Assets have no commerical value.
Happy for the people that made money on it today. I traded it for many times in the full knowledge that it was a pump & dump. Just shows you how crazy valuations are.
These companies that have no assets nor income never have a going concern clause, yet CASP was forced to put one in by the Nomad.
WHI were fined in the past for Market Abuse
https://www.ft.com/content/3a95d25c-da03-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818
"The brokerage was fined £1.2m by the City watchdog over a catalogue of weak controls. Among them: its compliance team did not realise that the firm offered a particular direct-market service to its clients and it had an ineffective information-sharing barrier, known as a “Chinese wall”, between the public-facing and private sides of its business. "
Make you wonder why the shorts were so confident.
I've learnt not to deduce anythng technical from what Clive writes. It's always wrong. They have an annual quota for all 20 wells to flare. We'll be ok as there is only 3 this year.
The question is can they flow it? Probably. Their team has a pretty good shallow track record not just on MJF but on Yelemes too.
If not, as you say, plop.
Same. The shorters have a short attention span and will get bored and close by friday and move on. Operation wise they have tenders out in excess of $2mil. So things moving on the ground. Plently do with 8 shallows and 4 deep wells.
If covid gives us the excuse with the kaz state to delay drilling obligations then I take that as a positive. No point in drilling A9 until we have flowed existing deep wells or found a partner.
143 flowed at 1000bopd intially and 144 at 700bopd. They sustained these rates for a number of months.
I'm hoping the same from 151 which will give us the much needed cash boost.
Awax thats true. KO used his own team from SKT geo and Kazmart. Then with Sinopec he went with thier B team.
In 2017 Sinopec did a 50:50 split on revenue for munaily to renter 20 wells. No drilling cost to Casp.
They gave up after 4 drills but everyone knew munaily was dog poo anyway but it shows how hungry they were for oil from that region.
Rumours were they inquired about BNG but KO was on a different planet in those days.
https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Caspian-Baverstock-presentation-11-May-2017.pdf
A similar deal could be struck for Airshagyl. At the time I said I'd rather have 50% of something than 100% of nothing ... which is where we are in 2020.
There is now a concerted effort to drive the price down from people with a large social following. It appears they have taken significant short positions.
When you look at all the ****e valued at 25-50mil MCap on AIM, who have useless assets nor earned a dollar in their trading history, it's easy to see the value here despite the mismanagement of the deeps.
MLQ, there are no new drills and they already have all licenses they need to do the workovers on MJF and the deeps.
They are netting $750k/month. From which the biggest fixed expense is $250k/month to kaz gov triggered when they put MJF into production. It's the one they are disputing as it's calculated on all of BNG rather than MJF.
That leaves them $500k/month which is more than enough for salaries and keeping MJF operational. There's potentially 1000bopd to be added with Yelems (300) + 141 & 151 (700), which would allow them to resume shallow drilling.
Kaz gov has f'kd them over by first delaying MJF and now Yelemes and screwing them with the the prod tax on BNG. Can't blame the BoD for that. They just need to build up a strong cash position in case of another oil price war.
Overeaction yesterday, but it's something I've seen across the market since covid. Stocks halve in a heartbeat and then 10 bag over a Trump tweet. Don't fight it ... just take advantage where you can.
Always thought it was expensive at 6p when the deeps failed. I think it's good value now compared to it's peers.
Plently of LTH will be exiting today and it's pretty illiquid down here so expect the price to drop with every sell.
I think CE will be commisioned within the next 12 months and JV for the deeps. Shame that they didn't do the JV at 12p when they had the chance and acted like snobs with BOCO at 18p.
They'll be having a good hard think about how KO has run this company.
I think something can be salvaged from this mess. No pound party but certainly a few bags from this point.
I posted my view on ops a few days ago and it's pretty much spot on.
Good decision to defer deep drilling until a partner can be found. Pump MJF and pay down liabilities and keep KCE in a good state.
Depending on how fast BP and KMG progress I think KCE is in with a good chance of being used.
Pound party about to happen on #ODX. A decent company will always build value. It's been a long journey. They had a placing which caused a 50% drop but I knew they wouldn't waste funds on salaries and payouts to companies owned by the CEO.
I took part in the placing and requested more than my quota - which I got and bought further on the open.
Sadly all the traits of a value builder are missing from Kuat and Clive is happy to indulge his stupidities. Frankly, if Kuat paid $0.5mil I'd be no different to Clive.
Our only hope here is KCE and 3AB ... should see some news on that front soon.
I've written the next RNS for you.
- A5 Coil tubing stuck - needs side track to get around
- A6/A8/801 - waiting on specialist equipment
- MJF 151 - at TD ... preparing to flow
Can't sell much oil at intl. prices as we over promised to domestic traders on future production we don't have.
... and Tim's doing what he does best.
Feel free to edit/improve ... most welcome.
this is interesting
https://www.cv-library.co.uk/job/212281307/Integration-Engineer
means they are eyeing up lucrative bespoke integration work ... the team being assembled isn't just so that someone can download an app on their phone .. looks like they are going for the bigger digital transformation contracts as bleepa holds open the door.