Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Jamesey , the state might want to settle out of court because if they lose it will set a new precident and then every Tom will want their historic costs recalculated. I expect lots of discussion taking place now. I hope they can come to a mutally beneficial settlement. A short term win at the cost of a long term relationship with the state is not really a win.
Jup4it, it worked in 2017,18.
In 2019 KMG lost their drilling partners Shell and others which stalled the projects in that area.
KMG have now attracted BP (in July 2020 i think) and work has started again. It'll kick off in 2021 but I expect if they need the CE they'll be doing the DD now (which has been RNS'd) and if they need the barge then we should hear about it in the next 6 months.
If the boat was worthless he could have sold it for scrap and kept the money. They are keeping it alive as they know it will be rented out again. The rig alone is worth several million if sold. KMG are increasing activity in that region since partnering with BP. I expect CE will be comissioned in the next 6 months. They've already started drilling on the Azerbaijan side. We all know oil won't be needed forever, so there is a race now to monitise whatever's in the ground asap.
3 MJF wells drilled this year despite covid. ( 2019: zero wells drilled!) and the long overdue workovers on existing wells near completion.
150 & 153 flowed at 500bopd and300 bopd expected from 151. Operatioanlly it's been a much better year than 2019 where they wasted all their time and money on A8 and did f.a. on MJF (which they now regret as per Q/A).
In March they announced they were halting all new drilling but were then able to get 151 drilled when the oil situtation improved. It shows they are still comitted to developing MJF. I think we will see aother spud before year end if oil holds $40.
Also, 10 wells makes doing the math easy. C'mon Kuat get that 10th well in.
If they can confirm 2500 bopd after the workovers then some good net income levels to look forward to.
50/50 => $1.00 mil/month
60/40 => $1.20 mil/month
70/30 => $1.34 mil/month
Longer term prospects still look very good.
1) Where is the strategic report refered to in the accounts
"As you will read in our strategic report, we believe that this is just the beginning of the journey for this exciting product as the Company now looks to grow."
2) How many bleepa subscribers do you have to date?
Need this figure and future growth targets now.
When 151,141 & 144 are operational they should manage at least 2500bopd.
With a 50:50 export/domestic split (worst case) the net back is @ $14.25
That brings in a net revenue of $1mil/month. That's more than what they were making last year.
I think some deal could be done with the state where we carry on paying the historic costs and they fast track
Yelemes, drilling programme deferment and allow more exports.
KK, the charge is proportional to the number of wells drilled (area covered), so your comment has some merit. The state is insisting the deep wells drilled should be part of the calculation as the decision to only put MJF wells into production is CASP's and not state imposed and the contract they signed states full payment kicks in when *any* production from BNG starts.
The should get a hearing this month the judge is looking at it right now. Everyone get praying to whatever God or higher power you believe in. Casp are gonna need all the postive vibes they can get. And if you know some higher power within the state ... that ought to help too.
Positives
• No gas cap 151. Flaring license also confirms success at 151.
• Avg production per well remains steady at @ 275 bopd per well. With all 9 wells flowing their target of 2500bopd is achievable.
• Debt to oil traders being paid down.
• Good net back on export at $23.5
Negatives (although already known)
• Everything Clive has said on A5 is a lie.
• Clive & his buddy Tim not been sacked.
• Kaz gov controlling domestic/export split on a monthly basis.
• 802 pentalty or drill cost.
Catalysts for sp increase
• Winning appeal for BNG histotric cost will save them $225k per month. If they loose then it's already priced in as they have been paying it for a year now. Payments are spread over a 10 year period.
• 151/141 back in production and contributing to monthly sales.
• Drilling programme deferment
• South Yelemes approval.
• Clives resignation.
• CE contract - I can't see why KMG won't use CE again. Activity building up in the area despite covid.
• Some flow from A6/A8.
From CASP's development plan submitted to the state in 2018 when they were seeking approval for export license (translated from russian)
• cost-effective development period - 25 years (2018-2042);
• maximum oil production is 174.2 thousand tons;
• commissioning of wells from conservation - 6 units.
• drilling of production wells - 18 units;
• transfer of production wells to injection wells - 7 units;
• drilling rate - 4-5 wells / year;
• production well stock - 17 units;
• injection well stock - 7 units;
• total oil production for the entire profitable development period - 2322.0 thousand tons, including actual
total oil production as of 01.07.2018
2,322,000 ton is 16,950,600 barrels of oil. At $40 that's $678mil recoverable from MJF.
Annual profit from export (70% @ $20 net) is around $10mil.
If South Yelemes and the remaing 30% can service salaries and other expenses then that's free cash to pay a modest dividend.
Covid put a dent in that plan but I believe they will get it back on track. Exports seem to be increasing which implies that the debt to oil traders is reducing.
Well 146 was not a producer at that time. As per interims it's producing now. It's a shame they never RNS'd it.
Plenty of upside here if they get the tone of the next RNS right. Kuat should personally check it.
MLQ, The fund raise happened because they had advanced up to $5mil from oil traders. They probably did the projections at $18.
Lets say the traders demanded repayment of $250k / month (either oil or cash) - at $18 only 462 bopd would be needed to service that debt.
Covid hits, traders get greedy and demand $500k/month - at $5 you'd need 3,333 bopd. Casp don't have that!
In that case it's better to do a raise, pay off the traders with cash rather than oil and sell oil internationally at $40.
As cash builds up they can service the debt with a mixture of cash & the manadtory 30% domestic oil.
I can't see why they'd need another raise.
As I say, the sp decline can be resolved by not letting Clive write another RNS ever again.
MLQ, better late than another whitewash.
I've asked some very probing questions as have others. They can't afford not to answer them this time.
If they have any sense, they'll get a professional to eliminate Carverspeak.
Shareholders accept the risk in O&G and know how difficult the operational side can be. What we won't accept is more patronising Carverspeak.
The fundaments are still strong. Look at the turnover growth in the last 5 years.
2015 : 1.05m
2016: 1.57m
2017: 7.58m
2018: 10.75m
2019: 12.11m (Operating profit: 1.39m, Pretax Profit 0.94m)
In 2020, the interims had 5.03m for the p/e 30/06.
Since then oil has held $40 and production has been stable. We should turnover $10-12mil for 2020. If we get 141/151 and S. yelemes this month then we could easily hit 15m.
The major expense here is deep drilling. Drop that and you have a very profitable company just on MJF.
Kaz nationals have better visibilty of operations. For any business they can view;
- tax receipts
- purchases
- tenders
- licenses
- litigaton
- exports
- imports
more if you regsiter with your id card, and further more if you are a local registered business.
MrC ... everything a business does has to be recorded online with the Kaz gov (ex-commie) and websites are available searchable by the public. It's very difficult for a business to hide anything dodgy.
For some services you needed a Kaz Id card, which is why our Kaz investors have traded this far better than UK investors. They were and still are one step ahead of the RNS.
The only dodgy stuff has been with the UK listing. There is no way Kaz state would have allowed all those the RPTs.
The operational side of the buisness is pretty good. Very lean and have a good standing with state and tax authorities. That's why oil traders were willing to give them advances up to 6 months. The shallow drilling team is very good and I have no doubt they'll flow 151.
The sp has fall is down to how they've used/abused AIM.
If Kuat want's the SP back up he needs to get a new CFO & Nomad.
They had big plans but got caught with their pants down when covid hit.
The detailed project docs for drilling A7-A10 , 802 & 803 weren't done for show and neither was the contract with Sinopec to drill A8,A9 &A10. They spent a coniderable time getting all the approvals.
There was already weakness in the price created by dosbol dumping nearly 100mil and then add to that Sector (40mil?) and the rig seller (50mil). I'm sure other kazak holders probably exited in concert. Then add in the dilution from the merger, 3ab and the rigs. This wasn't going to hold any level unless they flowed a deep.
As for details I couldn't care less. It's about binary milestones. For deeps is it's
1) is it flowing enough to sell oil from it
2) is it flowing enough for a CPR.
I think CE will get a contract. Lots of activity happening in that region.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/kazakhstan-to-hold-auction-for-subsoil-use-rights-in-december/
Anybody know what those 10 sites are?
KumKuat, clearly Clive knew what language to use in order to ramp/manipulate up the price to provide an exit for Dobsol & others.
The recent negative language isn't accidental. They've all picked up shares on the cheap. A new investor/placee can pick up just under 60 mil shares without the need for notification.
They'll let this rip back to 12p when they are ready.
KumKuat, the BNG historic cost ($250k/month) is a red herring. We've been paying that since Sept'19.
It's only become an issue because as usual Clive tried to deflect the blame on someone else for the cash squeeze. He didn't expect the market would react so badly to his whinge-fest.
It's not a tax but money the Kaz gov has already spent on BNG for Casp. BoD should grow a pair and pay what they knew was coming when they first took over BNG. A fair settlement would be to perhaps get a payment holiday of 18months in light of covid. They have dragged their heels on BNG and I side with the state on this one. Either get on with drilling and get production up or return the license to the state so somone else can have a go.
They main finance issue is the oil they owe local traders and the interest on loans to Kuat himself. Get those sorted and export 70% of MJF.
With all 9 wells operational the net back income from MJF will be around $1.2mil/month (POO @ $40)
The only expense after that is the $250k/month BNG cost & salaries.
If they don't drill anymore they can bank $500-$750k/month profit. More if they get yelemes.
Clive painted a dire picture in interims to hide the fact that they wasted 2 years moving assets around when they could have been drilling MJF.
Additionaly, flow a deep and that $250k will look like the bill for a typical night out for the BoD.
I think they have learnt their lesson and we'll see a JV soon. The historic cost is the right kick up the backside IMO, for them to now start moving quickly on the deeps. I wasn't happy with the structure by structue deal either because I knew it gave Kuat the oppoutunity to delay the deeps forever ... which he did.
10p coming soon.
That 100m of oil hasn't gone away. They have more data now to negotiate a good JV deal. BOCO were offering 18p.
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/roxi-petroleum-secures-us20-million-investment-as-second-deep-well-makes-good-progress/