Member Info for adoubleuk

Sorry if the SP's suddenly dropped. Probably because I've just bought in. Might continue posting here fom time to time. 'Cos I'm a professional O&G person (no way a 'professional' share-trader), know my way round the rigfloor, but like the sound of what United's doing.

tidd, "Adouble nice memoirs lol." Thanks. As you'll have noticed, I'm a 'writing-freak'. Probably bores a lot of people, but can't help it! Note my update, though. Boy, am I now happy! Because some of what I've dragged out of here is already earmarked for a topup in HUR, which should take me back to where I was there last April. Just before making a big sell when the SP went bonkers. And for which some people still resent me, just because I got the timing right and they didn't! Oh, and by the way. I still sometimes look at another thing (which I sold completely) with a potential oilwell drilling campaign upcoming in a certain Central African country. You and I became sometimes completely cross-threaded over that thing. I might go back in there if the right sort of RNS emerges, but it hasn't, yet. No hard feelings, I hope? But please do beware 'confirmation bias'. Sometimes those pocket rockets won't beat what the other person's hiding.

Just a little further update, for anyone interested. Still awake, still online connected, and it seems that my order's been executed. Big sigh of relief for me, even if some of you might think I'm 'acting chicken'. But if you do, I couldn't care less, frankly! But once again, I'm not 'out' completely. Because retaining a holding , even if nominal, means working things through a click of an internet button becomes easier. Sort of. 'Cos I still don't fully comprehend why my order was 'rejected' twice last night, but worked just a few hours ago. In fact, it's worked out better for me like that, because ASX opened around 16% down, but has clawed its way back to minus eleven or so. Which means I've got out just about in the blue, but only just. I was tempted to do a top-slice about ten days ago and am now kicking myself for not having done so, of course. But that's the name of the game, and twenty-twenty hindsight vision is a worthless thing to bother oneself about anyway. Hey, last night at Royan I folded a pair of pocket aces at the 'river', face-up, so everyone could see. But aces or not, had I met my opponant's bet, I'd have lost the hand and been seriously out of pocket as a result. That corny old song about 'knowing when to hold 'em, knowing when to fold 'em' is very true. Ace-king suited is a terribly seductive-looking thing to look at, but it ain't a hand compared with a sorry pair of nines! Still in here (nominally) as I've said, but while it remains just nominal, and until TLOU / Botswana Govt come up with some concretely good news, I'll be contributing less to this BB. The gas won't go away, after all. Thanks for putting up with me over the last few months.

Well boys and girls, I'm still in here (maybe). I sent a sell order to my bank (also my broker) to be actioned (or at least so I hoped) on ASX opening. About an hour later I got a notification that the order (translated) had been cancelled, as 'not accepted by the market'. Huh? So I re-sent it, to see what might happen, and then set off the 80 miles to the casino at Royan with destruction and mayhem on my mind. (Anecdote, it's not my 'local' place, so have no etiquette-related reasons NOT to leave the poker table as soon as I want to: take the money and run, in other words.) Arriving there (after an utterly horrid drive in torrential rain), I checked my emails on my phone while waiting for the game to begin. Dam and blast. The same message. Sell order 'cancelled by the market'. I wonder what it all means? Maybe ASX chucks foreign orders away before opening time to let their own people get first bite of the apple. I haven't a clue. But nothing to be done. I can't access my internet broker from my phone, for security reasons. So instead (resuming anecdote), hit the table at 20:15, proceeded to play well and completely flummox the others, 'two-bagged' my buy in stake and got the hell out of there at eleven, feeling right chuffed with myself. Wish TLOU was performing the same way. Though I only play poker for small stakes, so my winnings were in hundreds, not thousands. (Continuing anecdote) what now? On the road to my 'local place', Chatelaillon. A 65 mile drive, 'halfway home', but not on the motorway so less scary given the weather conditions. And arrived to find there was one vacant seat at the table, as if just for me! Greeted eveyone, got stuck in, and proceeded to lose a proportion of my earlier winnings. But overall, still more than 100% up for the evening, so not complaining.As I say, why couldn't TLOU have been similarly generous? Now home, to find that my 'livebox' can't connect to the internet. And the local 'free Orange wifi' isn't connecting either. Maybe the rain has caused a glitch with the fibre-optics, or something like that. So out with the 4G 'dongle' thing and finally get online. And repeat my sell order. ASX is now open, so maybe it'll work. Third time lucky. Maybe. But of course it's the middle of the night here in France, so maybe it won't. And (again don't know) maybe ASX closes early on Fridays like London, and I'm dog-tired because the poker has required high concentration and so have the total170 miles put in, so I'm not going to wait until I can get on the phone to the bank just on an offchance. Most likely it'll all have to wait until Monday, now. I won't blame TLOU, I don't believe this clusterf*** is their 'fault'. But the Botswanan govt is not flavour of the month with me. PS, regarding 'alternative outtake plans'. I'd advise listening to what 'pijoe' has written on the subject, most importantly 'where will the money come from?'. It's an extremely valid point, and not to be ignored.

MinorMiner, "Haven't you just written the best reason to stay invested in TLOU?" Maybe. For those who can afford to sit back and wait. Maybe. My personal circumstances however are such that I can't do that, but have to make my money work for me. As mentioned, I've played the 'waiting game' with AIM stocks in the past, and have learned to my cost what an unfaithful ***** 'confirmation bias' can be. I use the phrase 'the AIM game' flippantly: it'd be melodramatic to say that in fact it's a matter of life or death, but let's just say I treat it dead seriously. Not a game at all. But that's personal stuff, anyway. Don't really know why I even write about it, but heck, micht as well blow off steam somewhere...

Chessmen, "Thought you of all people wouldn't be panicked into a sell, Aduk." I haven't. Almost was three days ago, though. Now I've had plenty of time to think it through, so no panic involved. My money (yes, MY money) will be back in the bank in 48 hours, and I can do what I like with it. Go totally mad and plonk it all on red at the roulette table (which won't happen), give it all away to the local beggars on the street (equally unlikely), whatever. At least it won't be subject to the whims and indecisions of some southern African nation's politicians. Heck, might even use some of it to buy back some TLOU shares next Monday. I don't know. But let's face it. The Botswana govt put out a request for tender a year ago. TLOU spent half a year putting a tender together, and submitted it on time, just for the tendering date to be delayed for a month. The govenment has sat on the thing for three months, not doubt soaking up all the technical detail, and have now shifted the goalposts and said the game's got to start off all over again. And the company's telling us that they might not start playing that game again, but instead do something else in a different ballpark. Procrastination is the thief of time. But I won't let it theive my money as well. I'll come back when someone's made their mind up about what game they're going to play.

tidd, "You mean is it possible to form a contract into the SAPP with an offtake in Zambia for example? Yep!" Won't argue with you there, because I believe you're correct. But the question is formulated wrongly, in my opinion. Instead the more pertinent thing (to my mind) is 'is such a manoeuver' PROBABLE (or likely to succeed)? To my mind that seems extremely unlikely (though of course I could be completely wrong). Some Aussie company drill and produce gas in Botswana, convert it to electricity and 'wheeler-dealer' sell it on to Zimbabwe with the Botswanan govt just content to levy a ten cents on the dollar export tarrif when their own country (not to mention the diamond mining companies up north) are crying out for more megawatts? It just doesn't sound realistic to me. They'll pull TLOU's Mining Licence and nationalise the entire scheme rather than allowing such a thing to happen.

MinorMiner, "Hmm, well I take it you've sold then. What's you re-entry target?" Your guess is (almost) correct, but my holding is on ASX, not AIM. Which is a nice situation in circumstances like this, because it means I've had time to weigh things up over a matter of hours with a clear head, and not make any sudden moves. But yes, I've now got a big sell order just waiting for the opening bell to sound down under. 'Re-entry target'? Haven't a clue. Depends how the cookie crumbles and whether there will be something to re-enter. I can see blood on the tracks right now, and that's disturbing enough in itself. Now plenty of time to take a walk down the line, in hopes that I won't get round the next bend and discover the entire train's jumped the rails. I've no doubt that ASX will open at a hefty drop, but I should still manage to get out (not completely) with my ledger in the blue. Long enough in the tooth to have got fed up with taking losses in this 'AIM game'. And please, this is not a 'deramping' post. Quite the opposite, in fact. Because I retain huge confidence in the integrity and capability of TLOU's BoD, and Tony Gilby in particular. And consider this farce to be none of the company's 'fault' whatsoever. But I find it not insignificant that the CEO is letting the CFO do the podcasts right now. Gilby himself is probably spitting fire and kicking rocks at the moment, and cursing the Botswanan government to high heaven as only a good Australian knows how! Hope he spares a thought for his own blood-pressure... Hey, the gas is in the ground, isn't going anywhere, and won't disappear overnight. If TLOU finds a way to convert it into dollars, I'll be back. But that won't be tomorrow. GLA

MinorMiner, "with the two bidding companies, including Tlou, invited to submit bids under a new re-tender process. THE TWO BIDDING COMPANIES" And your point is...? What, exactly? Who knows if further invitations might not get sent out? And is there a good bouncer at the door to turn away gatecrashers? All we actually know right now is we're standing at the door with our bottles in our hands, shivering, and the hostess hasn't let us in to allow the party to get underway. So don't be surprised if some people decide "sod this for a game of soldiers" and go off to the pub instead...

Thechukkers, "this is completely ******ed to be honest." I disagree with you there (for what little such a statement might be worth), but now temporarily, yup, I think we're screwed. And tempus has this bad habit of fugitting, doesn't it? To be quite honest, I think this has to be a case of "sorry, I'll come back again later". Assuming the shop's still open, that is, and hasn't turned into some takeaway pizza joint instead. And I'm afraid that when Colm mentioned some neighbouring solar-power thing as a potential different 'business model' which sidesteps the RfP procedure, my blood froze. Hey, on the motorway to Royan (and its casino) which I'll be driving along in a few hours' time, there are a couple of speed-cameras powered by solar cells. I love solar, don't you?

MinorMiner, "So it invites tenders from companies. But writes in a clause that excludes any not operating in the country. Hmmmmmm" Yes, Hmmm indeed. So 'DYOR' as the saying goes. (Sorry if that sounds cheeky, it's not meant to be.) Time to dig into who's actually operating in Botswana... maybe not necessarily in the CBM sector, but with the financial clout to essentially 'hijack' the thing...

"i have similar thoughts" Add me to that list of people who don't profess to 'completely understand' today's RNS nor what's going on. However there are a couple of things I do understand. A 30% drop in SP three days ago, a serendipitous rebound, but now another 'iffy' RNS and the SP dropping 20% again. Something has obviously gone horribly wrong. I don't blame the company for this, but I can't help getting the feeling that someone, somewhere must have badly mis-read the situation, as all the 'indicators' we were recieving until the start of this week seemed to be that govenment acceptance of the tender was a foregone conclusion, and a pure rubber-stamp procedure. Which is obviously not the case. What I find particularly disturbing is that the government agency involved (which doubtless also includes third-party technical advisors, because politicians are not generally noted for their technical savvy) have had TLOU's undoubtedly highly detailed plans in their hands for quite a long time now. And what guarantee is there that such technical details may not have been 'shared' with some other people, who could pop up out of thin air and present themselves as a potential new bidder on the power project with some cut-price tender? Right, that might sound paranoid as heck, but a 20% drop in SP is a 20% drop in SP, whichever way you cut the cake. Without wishing to draw any premature conclusions, I can't help feeling that TLOU is in some way being held to ransome here, and that the Botswanan govt is 'pulling a fast one' to some extent. Personally I managed to refrain from acting like a 'headless chicken' and allowing an inescapable 'panic reaction' to dictate my actions a couple of days ago. But today is different, and this chicken's head is securely bolted to his shoulders, thanks very much. There are too many question-marks now floating about, and a significant delay in progressing the project (as outlined) must now be inevitable. And although the long-awaited new reserves CPR might help things, it'll still only represent gas in the ground, not gas being burned to generate electricity nor travelling through some other (as yet inexistant) export pipeline. And the clock won't stop ticking on... So I wouldn't be surprised if the company might not find itself obliged to make some sort of market placement if it hopes to maintain its head above water in what has obviously become more than just a one-horse-race. Good luck to all of us, because I think we're now going to need some...

Hi JayKay! Meant to discuss this TLOU thing with you on the 'other place' (you know where!). Maybe tomorrow?

Chessmen, Getting back to you on this, as I consider you a 'serious' poster, unlike a lot of the usual idiots: "Well I guess you're right; it's all about trying to tilt the odds in your favour through research when investing (of course, there's a black swan around some corners), but I'd rather put money into a solid company than play the slots." I think you've read me wrong. Doing the research is a necessity, but it doesn't 'change the odds', much less 'tilt them in my favour'. The odds are what they are: they won't change, especially not through wishful thinking. Unless one counts on 'luck', of course, but then one's into uncharted territory. 'Tilt' is an important concept. Move a pinball machine too much, instigate the 'tilt', and you're out of the game. Bam. Just like that. But it also applies in poker, a game I'm passionate about. Go 'on tilt', ie forget about the odds, and you're going to lose. The whole thing is about being able to calculate the odds. Sometimes with a short time-limit within which to do so. It's a horrible thing to do, throw away one's pocket aces, but just sometimes one has to. To prevent a bigger loss. It was hugely tempting to hit the sell button here, 48 hours ago, and join the stampede. But I didn't, and am glad I didn't. I've still got my 'pocket rockets'. But am not quite so sure if they're worth anything yet, the way I was before. Somehow the game's slowed down, the croupier's gone off for a coffee-break, and the casino-owner's decided to bring in a gang of painters to redecorate the place while we're waiting for everything to restart. It all bugs the hell out of me, but it doesn't seem like a good reason to cash in and walk out right now, even if I'm beginning to feel sleepy and bored sh**less. Let's see what the new d�cor looks like before giving up. Though personally I'm remaining wide awake. One painter arrives with a pot of paint of the wrong hue and I'll be away like a rocket. But if the nice girl in the short skirt comes round to refresh my drink and nothing else is happening, why not stick around? Hurry up and wait... The oldest story ever told in the oilfield. One gets used to it.

Down. But now steady. To my mind, everything is now pure speculation, and as such, without hard news, nothing but that. So personally just waiting for news. Was 'in the red' a couple of days ago, but not now. So no reason to trade.

olderbutnowisa, "My fervent hope is that we shall all be chatting here in late 2019 about our 15-bagger and how we are commencing to spend our immense profits! " A forlorn hope, methinks. BB's like this are so full of people dreaming of riches and their new Porsche it's beyond belief. But there again, anyone who wants a new Porsche is an idiot anyway, because it's the old ones which are worth the money. If you like Porches, which personally I don't. Prefer the engine in the front and the bags and the load-space at the back, if you see what I mean. If I can make 20% off an AIM-listed share I count myself lucky. Or rather, not lucky, but instead having made some good decisions and timed them right. Keeps me in ammo to dissuade the wolf from approaching my door. '20-baggers' I dream of, of course. Like a royal flush dealt on the flop at poker. But just dreams...

pijoe, "so any project finance has to have both secure supply and a sales price that ensures (guarantees) a return... anyone see any issues here?" Yes, I see an 'issue' (aka worrisome sort of thing) or two. Or otherwise 'risks'. But those are the sort of things one hopes people like Tony Gilby are used to managing. And any 'PI' who doesn't like the idea of 'risk' when it comes to AIM-listed O&G stocks is definitely playing in the wrong sized paddling-pool. We're talking here about 'secure supply'. Yup, the gas is there. Maybe more than is yet officially quantified. The company has a project whereby to bring it to surface and thereby sell it. 'We' are 'investing' in the company to bring such a project to a reality-state. However that state doesn't yet exist, though we hope it will happen. Planting a seed, hoping it will grow into a plant of some sort which might bear a fruit we might be able to eat. Counting on someone else to do all the planting, seeding, watering, and harvesting for us! Oh dear, ain't easy being a PI, is it? Involves lots of trust in others to do their job right. Go to a garden-centre. Buy a packet of tomato seeds. Costs maybe a pound twenty-five. But the packet of seeds might in ideal circumstances produce a lorryload of fruit, worth hundreds on the market. Makes you go 'Hmmm', doesn't it? Think tulip-bulbs. Or 'gas in the ground'. Another 'issue' I now see, and which our friend has brought up is 'sales price'. Something which rings loud as a bell to me is that if the Botswanan Govt (or rather, maybe, the agents acting on their behalf) have come back to re-negotiate the entire deal, that means that the pricing ain't right. Somehow, somewhere. Just idle thoughts, 'coming through pale fawn fluff' as AA Milne put it. Not enough to make this Bear reach for the whisky-bottle like he did last night, but sufficient to make him wonder if there may not be some bigger players somewhere in the background who've set a Heffalump-trap for Botswana, their pension-fund, and TLOU to fall into... Were I a 'ramper', I'd start posting things about 'takeover time'. But I'm not, and anyway it's against the rules. But nevertheless...

Chessmen, "There's a key difference between gambling/punting and investing. Investing is based on assumptions (however well-informed) on future value." Now give us your definition of 'gambling/punting', please. So that we can all see what that 'key difference' you allude to actually is.

tidd, "Be patient, tomorrow will be the tell " Sorry, but please read my own earlier post about this. Per the RNS, tomorrow is when the two companies involved will be 'debriefed' about the previous tender request to which they responded by the government agency involved. Maybe (this is an assumption on my own part, and therefore quite possibly incorrect), the 'agency' may at the same time give them some sort of outline 'briefing' as to what is now expected instead. This is just a hunch on my part, but seems to me to be plausible, though if it's an 'unofficial briefing' might not be reported. The RNS says that shareholders will receive 'futher information as soon possible' (sic). Not tomorrow.

CEM9, "I think you are jumping to conclusions adouble. " Yes, you're quite right! Not even presenting my ideas as 'conclusions', just idle, slightly worried, musings. Possibilities (maybe?) for other people to bounce their own opinions off. In fact there's a calm, reasoned little voice inside me saying there's no reason for worry. But yesterday, having a relaxing beer, picking up my phone and reading the SP had dropped by 30% almost caused me heart failure, I'll tell you! I've been around this 'AIM-game' long enough to know which way the cookie can crumble, but surprises like that one can do without. Hurrying back home to read the RNS, I must have looked as though I'd just seen a ghost. My post was just idle speculation. Thumb-twiddling while now (once again) waiting for news. Except this time it's really 'waiting for news' in terms of an explanation of where things now stand, unlike the last few weeks when it was just (wrongly) anticipating something which seemed like a foregone conclusion. I know that reaching supposed foregone conclusions is a bad mistake, but I'll bet my shirt I wasn't the only one.