Member Info for Adieuk32

I bet the negotiations are going a tad better now oil is at $65.

Should be a done deal, but there is something which is also to be announced, I wonder what else will be released????

This isn’t just about the RBL, there will be a cherry on the top.

GL ALL

That’s stunned the market, massive drawdown in oil last week.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Soar-As-US-Oil-Production-Plunges-30.amp.html

API Data out at 930pm GMT, Forecast -2M, let’s see how’s the US Opening up from COVID Vaccines?

FCF of $200 Million, Based on $50 Oil Price (Trading Statement)

Additional $300 Million at $65. - Average 63000 BOPD.
Should see a re-rating here, over the next few weeks.

So much news due.
RBL/Bond Restructure.
GAS Contract being discussed with Ghana Government, for increase and sale of Jubilee/Ten Gas.
Suriname Drill results.
10 March Results for 2020 Year.
Q2 Ghana Drilling Campaign, 4 Wells this year, Discussing a 2nd RIG for GHANA.
Kenya Farmdown ($65 Oil makes Kenya feasible)
$75 Million due March, Uganda FID Payment from TOTAL.
$125 Million Cost Savings 2021.
$180 Cash from EG/Gabon sale (including Cost savings) Due June-21.
$120 Million Savings on De-commissioning costs of West African Assets.

And you’re telling me this is going to be sat in the 30’s for too long, not a chance.

Top up/Hold this will be in the 40’s before the results, probably before then TBH.

All IMHO & DYOR

GL ALL

Needs to close above 35p

RBL news due any day now.

GL ALL

Shorts are closing, Squeeze coming.

Strong break, should see a nice rise here.

But will it break!!!

Soon find out.

GL ALL

Once 35p holds, clear skies up to 40p Range

GL All

Money is returning, Shorts are closing, that Short Squeeze is happening.

GL ALL

Goldman: Upside risk to $65 oil. A broad commodity supercycle is getting underway, creating upside risk to $65 oil, according to Goldman Sachs. “I want to be long oil and hang on for the ride,” Goldman’s Jeff Currie said in an interview with S&P Global Platts on Feb. 5, warning “there is a lot of upside here.” He added: “Is it back to $150/b? I don't know... as it is a macro repricing we are talking about and everything needs to reprice.”

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-High-Can-Oil-Prices-Go.amp.html

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Imports-1112-Million-Bpd-Of-Oil-In-January.html

Tullow are in discussions with Ghana’s government on agreeing a sale agreement for gas sales.

Rahul was very open about this, but not only does it create additional income, but more importantly, we need to increase gas off-take, when we ramp up production in late 2021/22.

RBL 6 monthly sign off is not what’s holding this up, the business plan needs to be signed off by the lenders, which is. If we are having a loan facility for 10 years, then the lenders want to make sure the debt can be repaid, within that time frame.

The CMD was a business plan, to show how we are going to do it at a low oil price of $45/$55, Oil prices have helped make that plan 99% achievable, what IMHO is holding this up is the % terms on the new Bonds, which will be re-negotiated for 2026+ giving years of breathing space on debt maturity.

Remember negotiations are Rahul’s forte, having been at Morgan Stanley.

Tullows Bonds are trading at multiples of last April’s low’s, very good sign that they are being brought into.

Should start to get some coverage here in the coming weeks, especially with the drill in Suriname, 20 days into its drill campaign.

GL All

For the record, I don't short.

Yo buckles,
I've got a butlins weekend later in the year! That'd be me then :)

What a plank.

Yawwwwwnnnn. - Nice first post pal.

Bit late closing you’re short.

Are you Shiffty Slifty in disguise?

https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

Couldn’t of timed the RNS any better.

Well Done to the Team, really turning this around each day.

I wonder if the well known Shorters on here, will sleep well tonight.

Night Night

Yes very true, just hope TOTALS, Significant find, carries across the fault line to our Block.

I do like the look of the 3D Seismics on our block, with a nice looking Fan to drill into, who knows what’s currently in it, and what grade, but we shore will find out in a month or two.

Can’t beat the smell of Shorts getting burnt first thing in the morning.

GL All LTH

Some of the comments made by Tullow’s RNS

“Limited impact on RBL, Positive Impetus with ongoing Creditors”

“Constructive Discussions with Creditors”

“Value Accretive Desls”

“Positive effect on our Financial Position”

Gabon ~ 22 Oilfields still owned, not bad $72.5Million for 1 field producing 1,500 BOPD?

THE MAIN STATEMENT, THAT WAS LOST IN THE RNS, BUT INVESTMENT FIRMS WILL REALISE WAS THE DEBT COVENANT, NOT BEING BREACHED FOR 2020.

I WONDER IF THIS WILL EFFECT THE “CREDIT RATING” ULTIMATELY, THE BOND REFINANCE.

Increase to cash flow 2021
EG = $89
Dussafu = $46
CAPEX Savings on sale of assets $12 + $14Million = $ 26M

Gross increase in cash flow for 2021 = $161 Million

Less loss of production 6,000 x $15 (Profit element) = $32 Million.

Overall increase in FCF of $129 Million for year.

Add in future $40 Million in next 5 years, $120Million decommissioning expenses savings, let alone O/Heads in EG, it’s not just the sale proceeds, but the other associated costs.

2 Successfull Wells in Ghana, later this year, will offset this in no time.

Great deal for 2P reserves of 19Million.

I’d sooner invest in High return assets, that will materially increase production and FCF.

Tomorrow should be interesting day.

In